2026-02-16

Carnival security incidents during February 16-18 Jours Gras period. Any major gang attack during concentrated public celebrations would represent significant escalation and test post-CPT security coordination capacity. Monitor Port-au-Prince specifically given lack of publicly presented comprehensive security plan. TPS appellate ruling from D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Decision could be issued this week affecting 350,000 Haitian TPS holders. Ruling will determine whether Judge Reyes's stay denial stands or administration succeeds in reimposing deportation authority pending full appeal. Kidnapping trajectory in Delmas corridor. Continued surge in Delmas 19, 31, 33, and 75 with high-value targets including priest, lawyer, and judge suggests either temporary spike or sustained escalation requiring risk assessment adjustment.