# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-16
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4](#development-4)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Haiti enters a three-day Carnival holiday period with acute security contradictions. While Jacmel
celebrations proceed with police deployment and weapons bans, Port-au-Prince faces surging
kidnappings across Delmas neighborhoods and gang leader Izo operates openly financing
carnival activities with zero government response. The 5th Sectoral Security Table advanced GSF
operational planning through Concept of Operations development, signaling movement from
conceptual to deployment frameworks. A federal appellate ruling on Temporary Protected Status
affecting 350,000 Haitian beneficiaries in the United States is expected this week following Judge
Reyes's denial of the administration's stay request.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Carnival period February 16-18 with government offices and embassies closed; resumption
February 19.
Kidnapping surge continues in Delmas 19, 31, 33, and 75 with priest, lawyer, and judge among
current hostages.
Gang leader Izo seen financing carnival activities in Village de Dieu without official response nine
days after CPT dissolution.
TPS appellate decision imminent affecting 350,000 Haitians; Judge Reyes denied federal stay
request February 12.
5th Sectoral Security Table convened focusing on GSF CONOPS, legal frameworks, and human
rights compliance.



## DEVELOPMENT 1

The Carnival holiday period beginning February 16 reveals Haiti's bifurcated security reality where
cultural celebrations proceed in some areas while gang impunity reaches new levels in others.
Jacmel Carnival activities are underway with police deployment, weapons prohibitions, and
ethnographic research teams documenting cultural events without major incidents reported. The
Ministry of Culture announced institutional financial support for municipalities hosting carnival
festivities scheduled February 15-17, and public administration, commerce, industry, and schools
are observing official holidays beginning noon through .
Port-au-Prince presents a starkly different picture. No comprehensive public security plan for the
capital's carnival festivities had been officially presented by authorities as of early February. An
anonymous police officer warned that managing large crowds without a clear plan and without
sufficient resources can expose participants to increased risks including violence or targeted
attacks. This warning proved prescient as kidnappings continue rising across Port-au-Prince with
Delmas 19, 31, 33, and 75 particularly affected. Current hostages include a priest, a lawyer, and a
February 16, 2026

judge. The Kenscoff attack on February 12 by Viv Ansanm coalition demonstrated the group's
capacity to strike one of the capital's last safe areas, killing at least one person and burning
houses.
The most alarming security indicator is gang leader Johnson Andre's continued operational
freedom. Andre, known by the alias Izo and leader of the 5 Segond gang, was seen on video
participating in and financing carnival activities in Village de Dieu. No official government
statement has been issued regarding his presence. Izo is the same gang leader who
masterminded the December 24, 2024 General Hospital massacre using armed drones, killing
two journalists. His open participation in public events with zero government response signals the
level of operational impunity gangs continue to enjoy even as the PNH conducts San Kanpe
road-clearing operations.
The security environment during Carnival operates against the backdrop of Viv Ansanm
controlling approximately 85-90% of Port-au-Prince and gangs controlling at least 23 communes
across four departments. UNICEF reports a threefold increase in child recruitment for armed
activities in 2025, with children making up as much as 50% of gang membership. The destruction
of healthcare infrastructure continues with 45% of health facilities in the capital closed or
destroyed as of October 2025. This Carnival period tests whether the post-CPT governance
structure under PM Fils-Aime can coordinate effective security responses during concentrated
public gatherings.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Carnival represents Haiti's most significant cultural celebration period with roots in pre-Lenten
traditions. The Jacmel Carnival specifically has maintained cultural continuity even during periods
of political instability. However, previous carnival periods have also presented security
vulnerabilities with gang violence occasionally targeting large public gatherings. The 2025
violence toll of 5,915 killed represents the highest annual total in recent years.



## TALKING POINTS

Jacmel Carnival proceeds with police deployment and weapons prohibitions demonstrating
localized security capacity.
Port-au-Prince lacks publicly presented comprehensive security plan for carnival period creating
elevated risk.
Gang leader Izo operates openly financing carnival activities without government response nine
days after CPT dissolution.
Kidnapping surge continues in Delmas corridor with priest, lawyer, and judge among current
hostages.
February 16, 2026

Kenscoff attack February 12 demonstrates Viv Ansanm capacity to strike previously safe areas.
Child recruitment for gang activities tripled in 2025 with children comprising up to 50% of
membership.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Restrict non-essential personnel movement in Delmas corridor during February 16-18 carnival
period.
Monitor Port-au-Prince carnival events for any major security incidents indicating escalation.
Assess whether Izo's public impunity signals broader collapse of law enforcement capacity
post-CPT.
Evaluate Kenscoff displacement risk if Viv Ansanm continues probing attacks on last safe areas.
Plan operational resumption for February 19 when government offices and embassies reopen.
Track kidnapping trajectory in Delmas to determine if surge represents temporary spike or
sustained escalation.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

A federal appellate ruling on Temporary Protected Status for approximately 350,000 Haitian TPS
holders in the United States could be issued this week, representing the most critical near-term
development for the Haitian diaspora. On February 2, Judge Ana C. Reyes declared TPS
termination null, void, and of no legal effect, protecting Haitian TPS holders. On February 12,
Judge Reyes denied the federal government's request to stay her order during a contentious
hearing where she rejected Department of Justice arguments that Haitian TPS holders would not
be specifically targeted.
During the February 12 hearing, Judge Reyes stated directly to government attorneys: "You think
the second this goes into effect, they won't go after the Haitian TPS holders?" The judge
emphasized that the Trump administration possesses the home addresses of all TPS
beneficiaries from their work authorization applications and could use that information for rapid
enforcement actions. Reyes ruled that lifting the stay would cause irreparable harm because
deported individuals could not realistically return if courts later deemed their removal unlawful.
The judge received death threats but upheld her ruling.
February 16, 2026

The Trump administration has filed an appeal arguing the judge lacks jurisdiction. The D.C. Circuit
Court of Appeals, which has historically been more favorable to the executive branch on
immigration matters, will handle the case. The Springfield News-Sun reported February 15 that a
ruling could come this week. For now, employers should continue honoring TPS work
authorizations until further court action. The appellate court's composition and previous
immigration rulings suggest the administration may succeed in having the stay imposed pending
full appeal consideration.
The economic implications for Haiti are severe. Remittances from the diaspora remain a critical
economic lifeline for a country where 60% of the population survives on less than one dollar per
day. Mass deportation of 350,000 Haitians would both collapse remittance flows and overwhelm a
country that already received 270,000 forced returnees in 2025, with 98% of those deportations
originating from the Dominican Republic. Haiti lacks capacity to assist and reintegrate deportees
despite IOM and grassroots organization efforts according to Human Rights Watch's World Report
2026.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Temporary Protected Status for Haiti was originally granted following the 2010 earthquake. The
program has been renewed multiple times across both Democratic and Republican
administrations due to ongoing country conditions including political instability, gang violence, and
humanitarian crisis. Previous attempts to terminate TPS have been blocked by federal courts on
procedural grounds. The current case represents the most serious legal threat to Haitian TPS
protections in recent years.



## TALKING POINTS

350,000 Haitian TPS holders affected by pending appellate court decision expected this week.
Judge Reyes denied federal stay request February 12 citing irreparable harm and targeting
concerns.
Trump administration possesses home addresses of all TPS beneficiaries from work authorization
applications.
D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals historically more favorable to executive branch on immigration
matters.
Mass deportation would collapse diaspora remittance flows critical to Haiti's economy.
Haiti received 270,000 forced returnees in 2025, lacks capacity for additional mass reintegration.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Monitor D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling issuance throughout week of February 17-21.
February 16, 2026

Assess economic impact scenarios if TPS termination proceeds affecting 350,000 deportations.
Evaluate Haiti's capacity to absorb potential mass returnees given existing 1.4 million IDPs.
Track employer responses to work authorization validity during legal uncertainty period.
Consider contingency planning for remittance flow disruption if deportations proceed.
Coordinate with diaspora organizations on legal resources and documentation preservation.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3

Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime continues governing as Haiti's sole executive authority in his
ninth day since the Conseil Presidentiel de Transition dissolved on February 7. While no new
decrees or press conferences were reported in the February 15-16 window specifically due to
government offices being closed for the Carnival holiday period, recent governance actions
demonstrate systematic consolidation of executive power at both national and municipal levels.
The Council of Ministers adopted a decree formally placing executive power under its collective
authority, justified by the CPT mandate expiration on February 7.
PM Fils-Aime appointed himself interim Minister of Economy and Finance after dismissing Alfred
Metellus, concentrating fiscal authority in the executive office. The new Port-au-Prince Municipal
Commission was installed February 12-13 with Yves Andrel Salomon as Mayor replacing Youri
Chevry, alongside deputies Dorothé Ignace Morel and Esther Cinéas. Municipal commission
changes were also implemented in Pétion-Ville with Géralda Nelson replacing Blondibe Beauvert
and in Gressier. These appointments represent the first major municipal governance restructuring
under the post-CPT framework.
Laurent Saint-Cyr, in his final address as CPT president, told Fils-Aime: "You have no right to fail."
This statement captured the political pressure facing the Prime Minister. The Center for Strategic
and International Studies assesses Fils-Aime as politically exposed due to the battle over his
succession. No consensus has emerged on a successor governance framework among Haiti's
200-plus political parties. Prominent journalist Roberson Alphonse warned that without political
dialogue, Fils-Aime risks the same fate as Ariel Henry, who was forced to resign in 2024,
describing the Prime Minister as being without a shock absorber against political forces that envy
his position.
The governance consolidation occurs as the CEP electoral calendar remains unchanged with
February 16, 2026

campaign period beginning May 19, 2026, just one month after initial GSF troop arrivals expected
in April 2026. The first round presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for August 30,
2026, with the new president's inauguration set for February 7, 2027, exactly one year after the
CPT mandate expired. Key US institutions including IFES, NDI, and IRI appear to be playing little
if any role in election preparation, with Trump administration cuts slashing democracy assistance
budgets. The campaign period would begin before GSF forces have launched major anti-gang
operations, raising questions about electoral access in gang-controlled areas.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's transitional governance framework was established following Ariel Henry's forced
resignation in 2024. The CPT was designed as a temporary collective executive pending
elections. The February 7, 2027 date represents the constitutional endpoint for the transition
period. Previous Haitian prime ministers have faced removal through combinations of political
pressure, international withdrawal of support, and popular protests when unable to build
consensus among competing factions.



## TALKING POINTS

PM Fils-Aime governing nine days as sole executive authority following CPT dissolution February
7.
Council of Ministers decree formalized executive power under collective authority.
Fils-Aime appointed himself interim Economy and Finance Minister after dismissing Alfred
Metellus.
Port-au-Prince Municipal Commission restructured with new mayor and deputies installed
February 12-13.
200-plus political parties lack consensus on governance framework creating succession
uncertainty.
Campaign period begins May 19, 2026, one month after GSF arrival before major anti-gang
operations.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Monitor for new decrees or announcements when government resumes operations February 19.
Assess political faction positioning on governance framework consensus building.
Evaluate electoral feasibility in 23 gang-controlled communes across four departments.
Track international community response to Fils-Aime municipal appointment authority.
Determine whether US democracy assistance funding cuts affect CEP electoral preparations.
Consider whether May campaign launch before GSF operations creates security versus political
legitimacy tradeoff.
February 16, 2026

CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4

The 5th meeting of the Sectoral Security Table convened with a focus on advancing the Gang
Repression Force operational planning from conceptual frameworks to concrete deployment
preparations. The SST agenda addressed progress of national security forces, establishment of
the GSF, preparation for the upcoming SST Conference, institutional strengthening, operational
coordination, Concept of Operations development, legal framework, role of the National Security
Council, and human rights compliance in operations. This represents a significant operational
development indicating the GSF planning process is moving beyond preliminary stages toward
executable deployment frameworks.
The Concept of Operations development is a critical prerequisite for the anticipated April 2026
troop arrivals. GSF force structure includes an authorized personnel ceiling of 5,550 covering
police, military, and civilian components. Pledges of up to 7,500 troops have been received from
Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, and Bangladesh. GSF Special
Representative Jack Christofides and Force Commander Godfrey Otunge from Kenya will lead
the mission. The force currently relies on approximately 1,000 MSS personnel, primarily 735
Kenyan police officers, though Kenya announced a drawdown after achieving its primary objective
of stabilizing the country.
The 5th SST's explicit focus on human rights compliance in operations represents a positive
signal for accountability frameworks. This attention to human rights standards becomes
particularly important given the context of PNH drone operations between March-September
2025, which killed 547 people including 527 suspected gang members and 20 civilians including
11 children. UN Human Rights Commissioner Volker Türk assessed most drone strikes as likely
unlawful under international human rights law. The SST's institutional strengthening agenda
suggests efforts to establish legal and operational frameworks that can withstand international
scrutiny.
The operational timeline creates compressed decision windows. GSF troops are expected to
begin arriving in April 2026 with full deployment by October 2026. However, the electoral
campaign period begins May 19, 2026, meaning campaigning would start before the force has
launched major anti-gang operations in the 23 gang-controlled communes across four
February 16, 2026

departments. First round elections are scheduled for August 30, 2026, when GSF would still be in
mid-deployment. The BINUH mandate was extended to January 31, 2027 via Resolution 2814,
with the Secretary-General requested to report within 90 days on options for a Haitian-led
Disarmament, Dismantlement, and Reintegration program, establishing a late April deadline for
DDR planning.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Gang Repression Force concept emerged following the failure of the Multinational Security
Support mission to achieve sustainable gang territorial rollback. Previous international security
interventions in Haiti including MINUSTAH and UNPOL faced criticism for human rights violations
and limited long-term effectiveness. The GSF represents an attempt to create a more robust
mandate and force structure while maintaining Haitian government authority over operations.
Kenya's announced drawdown reflects longstanding challenges in sustaining international
security commitments in Haiti.



## TALKING POINTS

5th Sectoral Security Table advanced GSF CONOPS development and operational planning
frameworks.
SST agenda included human rights compliance signaling accountability framework development.
GSF authorized ceiling 5,550 personnel with pledges up to 7,500 from six countries.
April 2026 initial deployment timeline creates one-month gap before May 19 campaign period
begins.
Kenya announced MSS drawdown despite GSF not yet deployed creating security gap.
BINUH 90-day DDR report deadline approaching end of April from January 29 mandate
extension.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Track SST Conference scheduling and outputs for GSF deployment timeline confirmation.
Assess force generation status against pledged troop commitments from six contributing
countries.
Monitor human rights framework implementation given previous drone strike legal concerns.
Evaluate operational feasibility of elections in gang-controlled areas before GSF major operations.
Coordinate with BINUH on DDR program options development ahead of April reporting deadline.
Determine whether Kenya drawdown timeline aligns with GSF deployment to avoid security
vacuum.
February 16, 2026

CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Carnival security incidents during February 16-18 Jours Gras period. Any major gang attack
during concentrated public celebrations would represent significant escalation and test post-CPT
security coordination capacity. Monitor Port-au-Prince specifically given lack of publicly presented
comprehensive security plan.
TPS appellate ruling from D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Decision could be issued this week
affecting 350,000 Haitian TPS holders. Ruling will determine whether Judge Reyes's stay denial
stands or administration succeeds in reimposing deportation authority pending full appeal.
Kidnapping trajectory in Delmas corridor. Continued surge in Delmas 19, 31, 33, and 75 with
high-value targets including priest, lawyer, and judge suggests either temporary spike or
sustained escalation requiring risk assessment adjustment.



## THIS WEEK

Government operational resumption February 19. First full working day after Carnival holiday
closure. Watch for new PM Fils-Aime decrees, announcements, or municipal appointments
indicating continued governance consolidation.
Kenscoff security status. Viv Ansanm's February 12 attack on one of the capital's last safe areas
could trigger displacement if probing attacks continue. Monitor for additional incidents or IDP
movement from Kenscoff area.
Port security compliance. USCG 90-day compliance ultimatum on port security standards remains
active. Terminal Varreux container port standoff awaiting government customs authorization since
2020. Any resolution would signal improved trade infrastructure.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

GSF CONOPS finalization and force generation conference. 5th SST signals active planning
February 16, 2026

beyond conceptual stage. Watch for SST Conference date announcement and force generation
commitments from pledging countries. April 2026 deployment timeline requires concrete troop
pledges converting to actual deployments.
Electoral access in gang-controlled communes. Campaign period begins May 19, 2026, one
month after anticipated GSF arrival but before major anti-gang operations. 23 gang-controlled
communes across four departments create electoral access challenges requiring security or
political solutions before August 30 first round.
BINUH DDR program options report. Secretary-General requested to report within 90 days from
January 29, 2026 mandate extension, establishing late April deadline. DDR program success
critical for sustainable gang demobilization beyond military operations.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre, Zapping February 14-15: kidnappings, Izo carnival presence, embassy closures, 5th
SST
Juno7, Carnival amid crisis report, February 15, 2026
iciHaiti, Jacmel Carnival ethnographic studies, February 15, 2026
Vant Bef Info, Carnival security concerns analysis
Springfield News-Sun, TPS ruling expected this week, February 15, 2026
MNN Trans World Radio, Haiti transition analysis, February 15, 2026
Canada-Haiti.ca, Council of Ministers decrees, February 7, 2026
Haiti Libre, Port-au-Prince municipal commission installation, February 12, 2026
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Rocky Political Transition analysis, February 8,
2026
Trading Economics, USD-HTG exchange rate 131.20, February 13, 2026
ReliefWeb OCHA, weekly situation update, February 13, 2026
Human Rights Watch, World Report 2026 Haiti chapter
BINUH, Secretary-General Report, October 2025
UN OCHA, 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan launch
Forbidden Stories, Izo General Hospital massacre investigation
February 16, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*