2026-02-16

Restrict non-essential personnel movement in Delmas corridor during February 16-18 carnival period. Monitor Port-au-Prince carnival events for any major security incidents indicating escalation. Assess whether Izo's public impunity signals broader collapse of law enforcement capacity post-CPT. Evaluate Kenscoff displacement risk if Viv Ansanm continues probing attacks on last safe areas. Plan operational resumption for February 19 when government offices and embassies reopen. Track kidnapping trajectory in Delmas to determine if surge represents temporary spike or sustained escalation. CONFIDENCE Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.