2026-02-06

TPS protections remain in place following Judge Reyes' February 2 injunction against the Trump administration's revocation order. The Trump administration has indicated intent to appeal to the Supreme Court. The Atlantic Council warned that US deportation flights arriving in Cap-Haitien could overwhelm local capacity risking destabilization of one of the country's most stable regions particularly given the vital textile sector based there. The House passed H.R. 6504 extending HOPE and HELP programs on January 11 with Senate action still pending. The exchange rate demonstrates remarkable stability at approximately 131 HTG per USD despite the political crisis. The seven-day range is 130.69 to 131.21 with twelve-month depreciation of only 0.53 percent. Trading Economics forecasts first quarter end rate of 130.73 and twelve-month rate of 128.86. This stability persists despite political turmoil likely supported by stable remittance flows of 4.1 billion USD annually and BRH intervention. Humanitarian indicators show 1.4 to 1.5 million displaced persons and approximately 2 million facing acute food insecurity. The electoral budget requires 137 million USD with only half funded. The Atlantic Council noted that Cap-Haitien is home to Haiti's vital textile sector which the US Congress recently voted to continue supporting. Diaspora voting procedures remain unpublished despite CEP authorization making electoral February 06, 2026 timelines increasingly uncertain. The combination of TPS protection currency stability and pending HOPE HELP extension provides relative economic continuity during political transition. However the humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate with displacement and food insecurity reaching critical levels. The funding gap for electoral operations creates practical constraints on transition timelines regardless of political agreements. The textile sector concentration in Cap-Haitien makes that region vulnerable to deportation impacts.