================================================================================ AYITI INTEL - DAILY Date: 2026-02-06 | Language: EN ================================================================================ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ----------------- Haiti enters its final 24 hours before the CPT mandate expires with no succession framework agreed. RFI confirmed February 6 that uncertainty dominates as the CPT contradicts its January pledge to leave and seeks continued influence. EDE party, the seventy-plus party coalition, and multiple civil society groups categorically reject any CPT role after tomorrow. Chatham House warns of serious doubt whether Haiti will have a government after February 7 and identifies a vicious circle where violence deters the international funding needed to end it. The exchange rate holds at approximately 131 HTG per USD. No major security incidents in the last 24 hours. QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS ------------------------------ CPT mandate expires February 7 with no agreed transition framework Multiple domestic actors reject any CPT involvement after tomorrow International community backs PM Fils-Aime continuing as caretaker Chatham House warns of vicious circle blocking security funding Exchange rate stable at 131 HTG per USD despite political crisis DEVELOPMENT 1 ------------- The CPT mandate expires February 7 2026 with no binding succession framework and broad domestic rejection of continued CPT influence. RFI published a major assessment February 6 confirming that after 22 months governing during deep crisis the mandate arrives at its term with uncertainty dominating the post-transition landscape. Gazette Haiti reported February 5 that with only two days remaining the CPT actively seeks to retain a role in the new interim period. This directly contradicts CPT co-president Leslie Voltaire's January 10 declaration in Jacmel stating the council signed to leave and would no longer be legitimate from February 8. Les Engages pour le Developpement issued a communique February 3 categorically rejecting any CPT involvement after February 7 and accusing the council of having gravely compromised the political transition by serving personal ambitions at the expense of the people. As a signatory of the Consensus Politique pour le Redressement National, EDE insists on a bicephalous executive with a transitional president and prime minister excluding all CPT members. The Kongre Patriyotik pou yon Sovtaj Nasyonal published a report February 6 proposing a concerted and February 06, 2026 pragmatic exit. The Fanm Yo Deside women's coalition demanded an inclusive transition before February 7 rejecting any vague prolongation of the CPT. The international community has converged on PM Fils-Aime continuing as caretaker. US Secretary Rubio stated January 23 the CPT must be disbanded by February 7 without corrupt actors and Fils-Aime must continue. The Atlantic Council identified Fils-Aime as Washington's preferred pick to run the government after February 7. UN Special Representative Ruiz Massieu stated January 20 that the Constitution allows the PM to remain if no successor is designated. The OAS confirmed January 22 that the mandate ends February 7 per the April 3 2024 Agreement and Article 13 prohibits extension. CARICOM's Eminent Persons Group stated January 9 it is vital that stakeholders reach consensus before February 7. The fundamental impasse between the CPT seeking continued influence and broad domestic rejection of any CPT role creates maximum political tension with less than 24 hours remaining. An RHI News editorial declared February 7 2026 marks the Great Resignation representing the failure of the transition and capitulation of elites. The trajectory leads to what the editorial describes as exploitation of Haitian resources to meet strategic needs of foreign powers particularly in advanced technologies. The window for negotiated consensus has effectively closed. HISTORICAL CONTEXT ------------------ The CPT was established through the April 3 2024 Agreement following the collapse of governance after President Moise's July 2021 assassination. The council's mandate was explicitly time-bound to February 7 2026 with electoral preparations as the primary objective. Article 13 of the agreement prohibits mandate extension. The current crisis reflects the CPT's failure to organize elections or establish a viable succession framework despite 22 months in power. TALKING POINTS -------------- CPT mandate legally expires February 7 2026 per April 3 2024 Agreement CPT seeks continued influence contradicting January pledge to leave office EDE party seventy-plus coalition and multiple civil society groups reject CPT role International community backs PM Fils-Aime continuing under constitutional provisions No negotiated consensus achieved with less than 24 hours remaining February 06, 2026 Domestic opposition challenges legitimacy of international-backed arrangement RECOMMENDED DECISIONS --------------------- International organizations should issue coordinated statements February 7 recognizing PM continuation and establishing clear engagement framework Private sector should maintain operational continuity plans assuming PM caretaker arrangement prevails Political actors should prioritize electoral preparation over contesting transition mechanics Humanitarian organizations should position resources for potential displacement if security deteriorates during transition Monitor for CPT member holdouts or last-minute maneuvers February 7 CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting. DEVELOPMENT 2 ------------- Chatham House published a policy paper February 4 identifying Haiti's vicious circle where funding needed to end violence does not come because of the violence itself. The analysis expresses serious doubt on whether Haiti will have a government after February 7 and confirms internecine battles have broken out over what should follow the CPT specifically who can remain in power. The paper references the armada floating just outside Port-au-Prince alongside diplomatic pressure. The core thesis argues that beyond security restoration a push to rebuild Haiti's society and create jobs is vital to any lasting solution. The analysis was published alongside a January 18 Chatham House roadmap for security and governance reform in Haiti recommending establishment of a national strategic vision interim regulations and clarification of police army and intelligence mandates. The vicious circle concept highlights how insecurity deters the international investment and institutional support required to address the root causes of violence. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where deteriorating security prevents the economic February 06, 2026 development and governance capacity building necessary to improve security. The reference to an armada outside Port-au-Prince suggests significant international military assets positioned for contingency operations. This aligns with the GSF deployment timeline and indicates preparations for potential security escalation during the February 7 transition. The diplomatic pressure component reflects the coordinated US UN OAS and CARICOM position backing PM continuation and CPT dissolution. The combination of military positioning and diplomatic coordination demonstrates international determination to prevent governance collapse. The emphasis on societal rebuilding and job creation represents a significant analytical shift from pure security operations to structural development requirements. Chatham House argues that even successful anti-gang operations will not produce lasting stability without addressing unemployment economic opportunity and social cohesion. This challenges the current international approach focused primarily on GSF deployment and PNH capacity building. HISTORICAL CONTEXT ------------------ Chatham House is a leading UK-based policy institute with established Haiti expertise. The February 4 analysis builds on decades of scholarship regarding fragile states and post-conflict reconstruction. The vicious circle concept has been applied to multiple contexts where insecurity prevents the investment required to address insecurity causes. The Haiti application is particularly acute given gang control of approximately 90 percent of Port-au-Prince and the collapse of basic service delivery. TALKING POINTS -------------- Chatham House identifies vicious circle where violence deters funding needed to end violence Serious doubt expressed whether Haiti will have government after February 7 International military assets positioned outside Port-au-Prince for contingencies Security restoration alone insufficient without economic development and job creation Current approach focused on GSF deployment may miss structural requirements Diplomatic pressure and military positioning demonstrate international commitment February 06, 2026 RECOMMENDED DECISIONS --------------------- International financial institutions should develop economic recovery frameworks parallel to security operations Donor governments should commit reconstruction funding contingent on governance stabilization Private sector should engage with reconstruction planning to ensure commercial viability Political actors should integrate economic development into transition planning beyond elections GSF mandate should expand to include protection of economic infrastructure and job sites CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting. DEVELOPMENT 3 ------------- Security conditions show relative stability in the last 24 hours with no major gang attacks or incidents reported. This extends the calm since the January 31 US Embassy alert despite Port-au-Prince remaining approximately 90 percent under gang control. PNH conducted a January 17 drone strike targeting Jimmy Barbecue Cherizier's residence with police spokesperson Frantz Lerebours confirming the operation demolished his house and reduced chances of his faction re-establishing presence. Police express hope of regaining control of the capital in the near future through intensive operations since late December. The GSF deployment stands at approximately 950 to 1000 personnel against an authorized strength of 5550 with UNSOH operational deadline of April 1. The UN envoy stated full GSF deployment should occur by summer at the latest by autumn. Eighteen nations have committed security personnel for the force. The March through September 2025 drone operation toll reached 547 deaths including 527 suspected gang members and 20 civilians including 11 children. UN assessment determined these operations were likely unlawful under international human rights law. February 06, 2026 The Artibonite region experienced a 210 percent increase in intentional homicides between January and August 2025 with 1303 victims compared to 419 in the same period 2024. This indicates gang expansion beyond Port-au-Prince into previously stable agricultural zones. The Atlantic Council warned that the February 7 transition creates a security coordination vulnerability. Since President Moise's assassination in July 2021 Haiti has found itself mired in turmoil with largely nonfunctional government effectively paralyzed economy and collapsing basic services. The risk of gangs exploiting the political vacuum is elevated over the next 72 hours. The absence of security incidents in the last 24 hours may reflect gang leadership calculations regarding transition timing rather than improved PNH control. The GSF deployment timeline and UNSOH operational deadline create pressure for visible security gains during the transition period. However the force remains significantly under strength and command structures remain unclear. HISTORICAL CONTEXT ------------------ Gang territorial control in Port-au-Prince accelerated following President Moise's assassination and the subsequent political vacuum. The G9 federation led by Jimmy Cherizier consolidated control over strategic neighborhoods and critical infrastructure including the port and fuel terminals. International security assistance collapsed after the October 2022 UN Security Council resolution failed to authorize a multinational force. The Kenya-led GSF represents a delayed and under-resourced response to a security crisis that has metastasized over three years. TALKING POINTS -------------- No major security incidents in last 24 hours but underlying conditions unchanged Port-au-Prince remains 90 percent under gang control despite PNH operations GSF deployment at 950 to 1000 personnel against authorized 5550 UNSOH operational deadline April 1 creates timeline pressure Artibonite homicides increased 210 percent indicating regional gang expansion February 7 transition creates elevated security coordination vulnerability RECOMMENDED DECISIONS --------------------- February 06, 2026 Security personnel should maintain maximum readiness February 7 through February 9 Businesses should implement restricted movement protocols during transition period Humanitarian organizations should pre-position supplies assuming disrupted access GSF command should accelerate deployment timeline ahead of April 1 deadline Political transition actors should establish clear security coordination framework February 7 Monitor gang activity patterns for exploitation of political vacuum CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting. DEVELOPMENT 4 ------------- TPS protections remain in place following Judge Reyes' February 2 injunction against the Trump administration's revocation order. The Trump administration has indicated intent to appeal to the Supreme Court. The Atlantic Council warned that US deportation flights arriving in Cap-Haitien could overwhelm local capacity risking destabilization of one of the country's most stable regions particularly given the vital textile sector based there. The House passed H.R. 6504 extending HOPE and HELP programs on January 11 with Senate action still pending. The exchange rate demonstrates remarkable stability at approximately 131 HTG per USD despite the political crisis. The seven-day range is 130.69 to 131.21 with twelve-month depreciation of only 0.53 percent. Trading Economics forecasts first quarter end rate of 130.73 and twelve-month rate of 128.86. This stability persists despite political turmoil likely supported by stable remittance flows of 4.1 billion USD annually and BRH intervention. Humanitarian indicators show 1.4 to 1.5 million displaced persons and approximately 2 million facing acute food insecurity. The electoral budget requires 137 million USD with only half funded. The Atlantic Council noted that Cap-Haitien is home to Haiti's vital textile sector which the US Congress recently voted to continue supporting. Diaspora voting procedures remain unpublished despite CEP authorization making electoral February 06, 2026 timelines increasingly uncertain. The combination of TPS protection currency stability and pending HOPE HELP extension provides relative economic continuity during political transition. However the humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate with displacement and food insecurity reaching critical levels. The funding gap for electoral operations creates practical constraints on transition timelines regardless of political agreements. The textile sector concentration in Cap-Haitien makes that region vulnerable to deportation impacts. HISTORICAL CONTEXT ------------------ TPS was originally designated for Haiti following the January 2010 earthquake and has been extended through successive administrations. The Trump administration's January 2026 revocation represents the first attempt to terminate protections despite ongoing crisis conditions. HOPE and HELP trade preference programs were established to support Haitian textile manufacturing and job creation with requirements for periodic Congressional renewal. The gourde's stability reflects Haiti's heavy dependence on remittances which constitute approximately 30 percent of GDP. TALKING POINTS -------------- TPS injunction holds but Trump administration appealing to Supreme Court Exchange rate stable at 131 HTG per USD despite political crisis HOPE HELP extension passed House awaiting Senate action Cap-Haitien textile sector vulnerable to deportation impacts 1.4 to 1.5 million displaced persons with 2 million food insecure Electoral budget half funded creating timeline constraints RECOMMENDED DECISIONS --------------------- Diaspora communities should monitor Supreme Court TPS appeal developments Textile sector should prepare contingency plans for potential worker deportations Private sector should maintain exchange rate hedging despite current stability Humanitarian organizations should scale food security operations ahead of planting season International donors should address electoral funding gap to enable credible timeline Political transition framework should account for resource constraints February 06, 2026 CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting. WHAT TO WATCH NEXT ------------------ NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ------------------- CPT formal dissolution or member holdouts on February 7 determining whether transition occurs smoothly or contentiously. PM Fils-Aime statement declaring caretaker status and constitutional framework establishing legal basis for ongoing governance. Immediate international recognition from US UN OAS and CARICOM conditioning post-transition legitimacy. Gang response to political vacuum and PNH operational continuity during transition period. Any protest movements for or against transition outcome indicating domestic acceptance levels. Supreme Court TPS emergency stay application timeline affecting diaspora planning. THIS WEEK --------- Post-transition governance structure clarifying whether PM-only arrangement prevails or new executive formation emerges. GSF Special Representative Jack Christofides assuming post mid-February establishing international security coordination. Cabinet continuity or reshuffling indicating political compromises reached. Security incidents or gang exploitation attempts during transition vulnerability window. Senate HOPE HELP action determining textile sector stability. Any CPT member statements or actions contradicting transition outcome. STRATEGIC HORIZON ----------------- CEP statement on feasibility of August 30 first round elections given political uncertainty and funding constraints. GSF deployment acceleration toward April 1 UNSOH operational deadline requiring visible security gains. International donor conference or funding commitments addressing Chatham House vicious circle analysis. Artibonite security deterioration potentially expanding gang territorial control beyond February 06, 2026 Port-au-Prince. Supreme Court TPS decision affecting approximately 300000 Haitian nationals in United States. Humanitarian crisis escalation if food security and displacement trends continue without increased assistance. PRIMARY SOURCES --------------- Gazette Haiti CPT Positioning Report February 5 2026 Chatham House Vicious Circle Analysis February 4 2026 Chatham House Security Governance Roadmap January 18 2026 Reuters Rubio Statement on CPT January 23 2026 Haiti Libre CPT Zapping Report February 6 2026 France24 PNH Operations Report January 17 2026 Trading Economics Haiti Exchange Rate Data February 6 2026 UN News Ruiz Massieu Statement January 20 2026 OAS General Secretariat Statement January 22 2026 UN Security Council Report Haiti Assessment January 2026 Amitiefm CARICOM EPG Statement January 9 2026 RFI Haiti Analysis February 6 2026 February 06, 2026 ================================================================================ Exported: 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC ================================================================================