2026-02-06

Chatham House published a policy paper February 4 identifying Haiti's vicious circle where funding needed to end violence does not come because of the violence itself. The analysis expresses serious doubt on whether Haiti will have a government after February 7 and confirms internecine battles have broken out over what should follow the CPT specifically who can remain in power. The paper references the armada floating just outside Port-au-Prince alongside diplomatic pressure. The core thesis argues that beyond security restoration a push to rebuild Haiti's society and create jobs is vital to any lasting solution. The analysis was published alongside a January 18 Chatham House roadmap for security and governance reform in Haiti recommending establishment of a national strategic vision interim regulations and clarification of police army and intelligence mandates. The vicious circle concept highlights how insecurity deters the international investment and institutional support required to address the root causes of violence. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle where deteriorating security prevents the economic February 06, 2026 development and governance capacity building necessary to improve security. The reference to an armada outside Port-au-Prince suggests significant international military assets positioned for contingency operations. This aligns with the GSF deployment timeline and indicates preparations for potential security escalation during the February 7 transition. The diplomatic pressure component reflects the coordinated US UN OAS and CARICOM position backing PM continuation and CPT dissolution. The combination of military positioning and diplomatic coordination demonstrates international determination to prevent governance collapse. The emphasis on societal rebuilding and job creation represents a significant analytical shift from pure security operations to structural development requirements. Chatham House argues that even successful anti-gang operations will not produce lasting stability without addressing unemployment economic opportunity and social cohesion. This challenges the current international approach focused primarily on GSF deployment and PNH capacity building.