2026-01-18

Gang attack pause has reached 43 consecutive days from December 21 through January 18 the longest on record. Gangs maintained discipline through PNH operations, drone strikes, and weekend silence awaiting signals. Strategic pause has a deadline linked to amnesty framework emergence by through . Three scenarios exist depending on announcements: violence resumption, pause extension, or post-February 7 wait. represents last opportunity for gangs to resume violence with 10-14 day pressure window before deadline. Crisis Group warning indicates gangs seek amnesty as part of February 7 transition January 18, 2026 negotiations.