# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-18
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

---

## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: CARICOM Facilitation Collapse Confirmed by Weekend Silence](#development-1-caricom-facilitation-collapse-confirmed-by-weekend-silence)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: 43-Day Gang Attack Pause Reaches Strategic Decision Point](#development-2-43-day-gang-attack-pause-reaches-strategic-decision-point)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: Haiti Enters 20-Day Final Countdown with Converging Crises](#development-3-haiti-enters-20-day-final-countdown-with-converging-crises)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

---


## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

January 18 marks the second consecutive day of the critical weekend with zero
developments through 6:34 PM EST. The entire critical weekend passed without the
CARICOM emergency summit identified as the decisive inflection point, confirming
international facilitation has effectively collapsed. Tomorrow January 20 becomes the
absolute final deadline for framework announcements allowing 18-day implementation
before February 7. The 43-day gang attack pause continues as gangs await to assess
government actions. Haiti enters the final 20 days with no coordinated governance
framework and multiple converging crises. Exactly 20 days remain until the February
7 constitutional deadline.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Critical weekend Jan 18-19 passed with zero announcements from CARICOM, CPT,
or civil society through evening.
CARICOM facilitation has effectively collapsed after two public warnings and weekend
silence confirm coordination failure.
Jan 20 is absolute final deadline for frameworks allowing minimum viable 18-day
implementation timeline.
43-day gang pause continues but gangs awaiting signals before deciding whether to
resume violence Jan 21-25.
Haiti enters final 20 days to Feb 7 with no agreed governance framework despite 6+
weeks of negotiations.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: CARICOM Facilitation Collapse Confirmed by Weekend Silence

The passage of the entire critical weekend January 18-19 through evening 6:34 PM
EST without any announcements from CARICOM, the Transitional Presidential
Council, civil society organizations, or other international actors confirms that the
international facilitation process has effectively collapsed. This represents the single
most significant development in the February 7 transition crisis because it eliminates
the primary coordination mechanism and forces all actors into unilateral
decision-making mode for the final 20 days. The CARICOM Group of Eminent
January 18, 2026

Persons issued two public warnings in January on the 9th stating time is running out
for Haiti's leaders to agree on transition and on the 12th expressing deep concern
about slowness of actors despite points of convergence in proposals.
These warnings implicitly identified the January 13-17 critical decision window as the
last opportunity for Haitian-led consensus before international intervention. The
closure of that window without frameworks on January 16 and the passage of the
weekend January 18-19 without emergency summit means CARICOM has exhausted
its facilitation capacity without producing consensus among the CPT which remains
internally deadlocked between the Saint-Cyr faction supporting Prime Minister
Fils-Aime remaining post-February 7 without CPT oversight versus the CPT majority
seeking PM removal and CPT extension, civil society where three major proposals
from the Civil Society Initiative January 6, RANFOR January 11, and ANR November
6 cannot unify despite convergence points, and political parties where Voltaire's
January 12 condition requiring 60 percent political class rallying has not been
achieved.
No emergency summit announcement by evening confirms CARICOM either cannot
convene consensus because CARICOM member states themselves are divided on
Haiti approach, will not impose framework because CARICOM's mandate is
facilitation not imposition and is unwilling to cross that line, or has withdrawn quietly
from mediation without formal announcement leaving Haiti to navigate February 7
unilaterally. The weekend silence means tomorrow January 20 is the absolute final
deadline for framework announcements because announcement equals 18 days until
February 7 representing the minimum required 14-22 days for decree drafting,
consultations, approval, publication, and rollout making 18 days operationally viable
but highly compressed while any delays beyond create 14-17 days or fewer which are
operationally insufficient.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

CARICOM has served as Haiti's primary international mediator since the April 2024
transition installation with the Group of Eminent Persons conducting shuttle diplomacy
between Haitian factions throughout 2024 and early 2025. Previous CARICOM
January 18, 2026

interventions in Caribbean political crises typically involved direct member-state
summits and binding frameworks rather than the facilitative approach attempted in
Haiti which has now demonstrably failed.



## TALKING POINTS

CARICOM facilitation has collapsed after two public warnings and weekend silence
confirm coordination failure.
No emergency summit materialized during critical weekend Jan 18-19 despite earlier
identification as decisive inflection point.
CARICOM cannot produce consensus among CPT internal factions, competing civil
society proposals, or political parties.
International coordination mechanism has been eliminated leaving 20 days for
uncoordinated unilateral actions.
Jan 20 represents absolute final deadline for frameworks allowing minimum viable
18-day implementation.
Weekend passage without announcements confirms international actors now
operating on separate fragmented tracks.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International community should convene emergency coordination meeting morning to
establish unified position on February 7.
CARICOM should formally clarify its current role and whether facilitation mission
continues or has been suspended.
United States and Canada should resolve policy divergence between supporting CPT
extension versus demanding unconditional end.
OAS should activate institutional continuity clause from November 5 Roadmap before
20-day window closes completely.
Civil society organizations should unify competing proposals into single framework by
Jan 21 latest.
UN Security Council should schedule emergency session this week to address
February 7 governance vacuum.
January 18, 2026

CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: 43-Day Gang Attack Pause Reaches Strategic Decision Point

The 43-day gang attack pause from December 21 through January 18 continuing
through evening demonstrates that gangs have extended their strategic discipline
through the entire critical weekend but the approaching 20-day countdown means this
strategic patience is reaching its operational limits. The pause's continuation despite
January 14 drone strikes on Barbecue hideouts, January 15 IOM report of 5800+
newly displaced by PNH operations, 11 days of PNH operations in Bel Air Delmas La
Saline and downtown from January 6-17, and no frameworks announced with
weekend passed without governance agreements demonstrates gangs are
maintaining discipline specifically to assess announcements before making their late
January decision.
The Crisis Group's December 15 warning that gangs seek amnesty as part of the
February 7 transition means the pause has a strategic deadline where if no amnesty
framework emerges by through January 20-22 gangs must decide between three
scenarios. Scenario A involves resuming violence January 21-25 if passes without
framework announcements or announcements exclude amnesty provisions allowing
gangs to pressure negotiations by demonstrating government cannot secure capital
without gang cooperation, establish leverage by showing capacity to disrupt February
7 transition forcing inclusion in post-February 7 governance discussions, and exploit
chaos by capitalizing on CPT disarray CARICOM collapse and opposition
mobilization.
Scenario B involves extending the pause through February 7 if announcements signal
openness to negotiations even without explicit amnesty serving as a show of good
faith demonstrating capacity to provide security through violence suspension,
positioning for post-February 7 role by claiming stake in governance transition through
January 18, 2026

facilitating smooth February 7 passage, and awaiting new government to negotiate
with whoever assumes power post-February 7 rather than with discredited CPT.
Scenario C involves awaiting post-February 7 vacuum where if Haiti enters February
7 without agreed framework gangs wait until February 8-15 to target competing power
centers pressuring whichever faction claims legitimacy, maximize leverage by
negotiating from position of strength when new government lacks legitimacy, but risk
missing window by forfeiting immediate pressure opportunity during transition chaos.
The fact that the 43-day pause continues despite weekend silence suggests gangs
are waiting specifically for to assess government actions before deciding their
strategy. With 20 days until February 7, represents gangs' last opportunity to resume
violence with sufficient time of 10-14 days to pressure transition negotiations before
the constitutional deadline.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti experienced sustained urban warfare from March 2024 through November 2024
with gang coalitions conducting coordinated attacks on government installations and
controlling approximately 85 percent of Port-au-Prince. The December 21 2024
initiation of the current 43-day pause represents the longest sustained period without
major gang-initiated violence in Port-au-Prince since early 2023.



## TALKING POINTS

Gang attack pause has reached 43 consecutive days from December 21 through
January 18 the longest on record.
Gangs maintained discipline through PNH operations, drone strikes, and weekend
silence awaiting signals.
Strategic pause has a deadline linked to amnesty framework emergence by through .
Three scenarios exist depending on announcements: violence resumption, pause
extension, or post-February 7 wait.
represents last opportunity for gangs to resume violence with 10-14 day pressure
window before deadline.
Crisis Group warning indicates gangs seek amnesty as part of February 7 transition
January 18, 2026

negotiations.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Government should clarify whether any amnesty or negotiation frameworks are under
consideration.
PNH should prepare for potential violence resumption January 21-25 if passes
without gang-relevant announcements.
International community should assess whether violence resumption scenarios
warrant emergency security response planning.
Humanitarian organizations should pre-position supplies for potential displacement
surge if violence resumes this week.
Civil society should evaluate whether unified proposals should include provisions
addressing gang demobilization.
Security analysts should monitor gang communications through for resumption
indicators.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: Haiti Enters 20-Day Final Countdown with Converging Crises

January 18 2026 marks Haiti's entry into the final 20 days before the February 7 CPT
mandate expiration triggering the highest-risk period of the entire transition crisis
because of convergence of multiple crises. The governance vacuum sits at 0 days
from institutional void with CPT mandate expiring February 7 exactly 20 days away, no
agreed successor framework despite 6+ weeks of negotiations since early December,
Voltaire's January 10-13 conditional departure requiring 60 percent political class
rallying plus international approval remaining unmet, and multiple competing
proposals from Civil Society Initiative RANFOR and ANR with no unification.
January 18, 2026

International coordination collapse stands at 0 days from fragmentation with
CARICOM facilitation effectively collapsed as weekend passed without summit, OAS
institutional continuity clause from November 5 Roadmap unactivated with 20 days
remaining, U.S.-Canada split between Rubio supporting CPT extension and elections
versus Giroux demanding unconditional end remaining unresolved, and UN BINUH
mandate expiring January 31 which is 13 days away and 7 days before CPT. The
diaspora deportation crisis sits at 16 days from TPS termination with February 3 TPS
expiration affecting 350000+ Haitians in United States, federal court ruling on legality
still pending 12 days after January 6 hearing, DHS deportation warnings already sent
to beneficiaries, and compressed February 3-7 timeline where TPS expiration leads
directly into CPT expiration compounding crises.
Infrastructure and security crisis stands at 0 days from operational failure with
National Route Number 1 impassable at Montrouis for 12 days since January 6,
Andresol's January 12 promise to reopen routes before February 7 facing 20-day
deadline with no progress visible, 43-day gang pause potentially ending this week
January 20-25 if no amnesty signals emerge, 5800+ newly displaced from January 15
IOM adding to 1.4 million existing IDPs creating humanitarian crisis, and only 40
percent of Port-au-Prince medical facilities operational per MSF January 11.
Opposition mobilization stands at 0 days from escalation with MORN declaring CPT
mandate expired December 28 and poised to mobilize if no frameworks, Montana
Accord signatories preparing alternative governance announcements, civil society
including RANFOR CSI and ANR potentially unifying in opposition if CPT announces
unilateral extension, and 20-day timeframe providing clear mobilization window of
Week 1 for protests, Week 2 for sit-ins, and Week 3 for February 3-7 crisis period.
With 20 days remaining and the weekend passed without CARICOM summit, January
20 represents the absolute last opportunity for coordinated action because of
technical feasibility where 18-day implementation window is minimum viable, political
legitimacy where first business day after two-week silence requires response, and
strategic timing where any delays beyond trigger cascade of unilateral actions
including CPT extension announcement, opposition mobilization, and gang violence
resumption. If passes without framework announcements or produces only unilateral
CPT extension without international legitimization or civil society buy-in, Haiti enters
the final two-and-a-half weeks January 21 through February 7 in highest-risk mode
characterized by institutional vacuum assured with no time remaining for proper
January 18, 2026

governance transition, violence resumption likely as gangs exploit chaos in final 10-14
days, opposition mobilization intensifying with daily protests and sit-ins in final two
weeks, and international response fragmented where each actor including U.S.
Canada CARICOM OAS and UN pursues separate strategy post-February 7.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The February 7 deadline derives from the April 2024 transition agreement
establishing the Transitional Presidential Council with an 18-month mandate expiring
February 7 2026. Previous constitutional deadlines in Haitian history including the
February 7 1986 departure of Jean-Claude Duvalier and February 7 1991
inauguration of Jean-Bertrand Aristide established February 7 as symbolically
significant date in Haitian democratic transitions making current deadline politically
charged.



## TALKING POINTS

Haiti enters final 20 days to February 7 with five converging crises creating
highest-risk period.
Governance vacuum assured with CPT expiring and no agreed successor framework
after 6+ weeks negotiations.
International coordination collapsed with CARICOM silent, OAS inactive, UN mandate
expiring January 31.
Diaspora deportation crisis approaches with February 3 TPS termination affecting
350000+ just four days before CPT expiration.
Infrastructure crisis ongoing with Route 1 impassable 12 days, 43-day gang pause
potentially ending, 5800+ newly displaced.
Opposition mobilization ready with MORN Montana Accord and civil society poised to
act if produces no frameworks.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

All stakeholders should treat January 20 as absolute final deadline for coordinated
frameworks.
January 18, 2026

CPT should announce clear departure plan or extension justification morning before
business close.
Civil society should convene emergency unification meeting to present single
proposal to CPT and international community.
International actors should coordinate response whether frameworks announced or
not to prevent fragmented approaches.
Humanitarian organizations should activate February 3-7 contingency plans for TPS
deportation plus CPT expiration convergence.
Security forces should prepare operational plans for three scenarios: frameworks
announced, unilateral extension, complete vacuum.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Will any actor including CPT, unified civil society, or CARICOM announce governance
frameworks on January 20 representing the absolute final deadline for 18-day
implementation, or will pass without announcements confirming Haiti enters final 20
days with no coordinated plan. If passes without frameworks, will gangs resume
Port-au-Prince violence January 21-25 to exploit chaos and pressure amnesty
negotiations or will they extend the 43-day pause through February 7 awaiting
post-deadline governance negotiations.



## THIS WEEK

If no frameworks emerge, will opposition groups including MORN, Montana Accord,
and civil society begin mobilization campaigns demanding CPT departure and
organizing protests and press conferences for Week 1 of final three-week countdown.
January 18, 2026

Will CPT announce unilateral extension decision by January 22 without international
legitimization or civil society buy-in, triggering immediate opposition response and
potential gang violence resumption.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

How will international actors including United States Canada CARICOM OAS and UN
coordinate or fail to coordinate post-February 7 responses if Haiti enters deadline
without agreed governance framework, and which competing factions will claim
legitimacy on February 8 triggering institutional crisis. Will TPS termination February 3
combined with CPT expiration February 7 create compounded humanitarian and
political emergency requiring emergency international intervention during four-day
convergence period.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

17. Crisis Group analysis of gang strategic objectives December 15 2025
9. CARICOM Group of Eminent Persons statement January 9 2026
10. CARICOM Group of Eminent Persons statement January 12 2026
6. Reuters wire services monitoring January 18 2026
7. Associated Press wire services monitoring January 18 2026
20. Organization of American States Roadmap for Haiti November 5 2025
11. Miami Herald reporting on Saint-Cyr faction position January 9 2026
3. Le Nouvelliste monitoring January 18 2026 through 6:34 PM EST
1. Haiti Libre comprehensive monitoring January 18 2026 through 6:34 PM EST
2. Haiti24 monitoring January 18 2026 through 6:34 PM EST
4. AlterPresse monitoring January 18 2026 through 6:34 PM EST
5. Vant Bef Info monitoring January 18 2026 through 6:34 PM EST
January 18, 2026



---

*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*