2026-01-17

Gang attack pause reaches 41 consecutive days from December 21 through January 17 marking longest sustained period without major Port-au-Prince violence on record. Pause continues despite January 14 government drone strikes and January 15 IOM displacement reports suggesting gangs prioritize strategic positioning over tactical retaliation. Late January period between January 20 and 25 represents critical decision window for gangs on whether to resume violence, extend pause, or wait until post-February 7. Violence resumption in late January allows 10 to 14 days of pressure before February 7 when leverage is maximum for amnesty negotiations as political actors scramble. Pause extension through February 7 forfeits immediate leverage but positions gangs for post-transition negotiations with new governance structures that may be weaker. -announcements on governance frameworks and amnesty provisions will inform gang strategic decisions for late January operational choices.