2026-01-08

January 8 represents the 30-day threshold requiring governance framework commitments within 10-15 days for February 7 implementation. Technical pathways require weeks not days with constitutional amendments needing non-existent Parliament and transitional decrees requiring CPT approval plus international legitimization. Two consecutive days without developments signal CPT internal deadlock, international coordination failure, and civil society fragmentation. Critical decision window spans mid-January with delays beyond January 20 risking multiple competing legitimacy claims post-February 7. Gang strategic positioning demonstrates sophisticated political calendar awareness with 25-day Port-au-Prince pause serving as implicit bargaining position. OAS November 5 institutional continuity clause remains unimplemented 30 days before deadline despite explicit coordination commitments.