2025-12-30

Early January gang violence resumption testing government resolve and exploiting constitutional deadline approach. Expect coordinated attacks on economic infrastructure to demonstrate capacity and force negotiations despite December 28 no negotiations doctrine. Mid January emergency international consultations if OAS institutional continuity clause operationalized. Outcome determines whether February 7 produces power vacuum new transitional arrangement or contested parallel authorities. Late January candidate list publication if Provisional Electoral Council attempts salvage operation. Any list released after December 22 missed deadline faces legal challenges and opposition boycott threats requiring international mediation.