2025-12-24

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

STRATEGIC HORIZON

The February 7 2027 constitutional deadline creates a four hundred ten day window requiring either successful election completion or formal CPT mandate extension through constitutional amendment. Current electoral timeline collapse suggests August 30 2026 elections are no longer viable, pushing realistic election dates to late 2026 or early 2027. This compressed timeline requires candidate list publication by mid-January 2026 to allow minimum campaign periods, making the current seventy-two hour delay critically destabilizing. Gang maritime warfare expansion threatens La Gonave Island siege and potential extension to other coastal supply routes including Cap-Haitien and Jacmel corridors.