# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-24
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: CHRISTMAS EVE HOSPITAL MASSACRE](#development-1-christmas-eve-hospital-massacre)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: MARITIME WARFARE ESCALATION](#development-2-maritime-warfare-escalation)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: ELECTORAL TIMELINE COLLAPSE](#development-3-electoral-timeline-collapse)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: SEXUAL VIOLENCE CRISIS](#development-4-sexual-violence-crisis)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Christmas Eve witnessed a General Hospital attack killing multiple journalists and one
police officer, marking the second hospital assault in one week after Bernard Mevs on
December 17. The Haitian Coast Guard repelled a five-boat gang attack on thirteen
merchant vessels bound for La Gonave Island on December 23, representing the first
documented maritime warfare incident this month. The Provisional Electoral Council
candidate list remains unpublished seventy-two hours past the December 22 deadline
with zero official explanation, rendering the December 26 campaign period start
operationally impossible. US Charge d'Affaires Wooster urged the transitional
government December 23 to make 2026 an electoral year. Four hundred ten days
remain until the February 7 2027 constitutional mandate expiration.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

General Hospital attacked Christmas Eve killing multiple journalists and one police
officer.
Coast Guard repelled five-boat gang assault on La Gonave supply convoy December
23.
CEP candidate list seventy-two hours overdue with no government statement on
delay.
US diplomat urged Haiti to conduct elections in 2026 following missed December 22
deadline.
IACHR reports one thousand percent increase in sexual violence against women and
girls.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: CHRISTMAS EVE HOSPITAL MASSACRE

Armed gangs attacked the General Hospital in Port-au-Prince on Christmas Eve
December 24 killing multiple journalists and one police officer according to UN
Independent Expert on Haiti William O'Neill. The assault represents a deliberate
escalation targeting media professionals and healthcare infrastructure simultaneously.
O'Neill disclosed that only thirty-seven percent of health facilities in Port-au-Prince
remain fully functional, confirming the healthcare system approaches terminal
December 24, 2025

collapse. The timing on Christmas Eve maximizes psychological impact and
demonstrates gang operational capacity during holiday periods when government
security presence typically diminishes.
The targeting of journalists marks a systematic information control strategy. By
eliminating media professionals, gangs prevent documentation of atrocities and
reduce international pressure for intervention. O'Neill stated that many journalists are
being killed or fleeing the country due to death threats, indicating a coordinated
campaign to establish information blackout zones. The General Hospital attack follows
the December 17 Bernard Mevs Hospital assault, establishing a pattern of healthcare
facility targeting within one week. This dual-hospital offensive signals gangs are
implementing a strategic denial campaign to collapse both medical services and
information flow.
The General Hospital serves as a critical trauma center for Port-au-Prince's
metropolitan area. Gang control of this facility denies emergency medical access to
approximately two million residents. The attack occurred during peak holiday
displacement when families travel between neighborhoods, creating maximum civilian
exposure to gang checkpoints and violence. NGOs including Doctors Without Borders
have repeatedly suspended operations following healthcare facility attacks, leaving
the Haitian government without international medical surge capacity. The pattern of
hospital assaults suggests gangs recognize healthcare denial as a force multiplier
that accelerates state collapse without requiring territorial occupation.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The General Hospital has operated as Port-au-Prince's primary public medical facility
since the nineteenth century and survived the 2010 earthquake while maintaining
emergency services during previous political crises.



## TALKING POINTS

Christmas Eve hospital attack killed multiple journalists and one police officer.
Second hospital assault in one week following December 17 Bernard Mevs attack.
December 24, 2025

Only thirty-seven percent of Port-au-Prince health facilities remain operational.
Journalists face systematic targeting and death threats forcing media exodus.
Healthcare denial strategy accelerates state collapse without territorial occupation.
NGO medical surge capacity suspended following repeated facility attacks.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International Community: Issue joint condemnation by December 26 demanding
immediate healthcare facility protection and journalist safety guarantees backed by
MSS deployment authorization.
CPT Government: Announce emergency healthcare security protocol by December
27 assigning dedicated GSF units to hospital perimeter defense.
Media Organizations: Suspend Port-au-Prince field reporting by December 28 until
security guarantees established and establish remote reporting protocols.
Humanitarian Sector: Convene emergency coordination meeting by December 29 to
determine healthcare service continuity under gang siege conditions.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: MARITIME WARFARE ESCALATION

The Haitian Coast Guard repelled a five-boat gang attack on a convoy of thirteen
merchant vessels bound for La Gonave Island in Port-au-Prince bay on December 23.
The assault by heavily armed individuals represents the first documented maritime
warfare incident in December and establishes a dangerous precedent for gang
operational expansion into sea-based combat. La Gonave Island depends entirely on
maritime supply routes from Port-au-Prince for food, fuel, and medical supplies
serving approximately one hundred fifty thousand residents. By attacking these
convoys, gangs can implement island siege tactics without requiring amphibious
territorial occupation.
December 24, 2025

The Coast Guard successfully repelled the attack with no reported casualties or
vessel losses, demonstrating government maritime capabilities remain functional
despite land-based security collapse. This contrasts sharply with the National Police
inability to intervene in urban incidents such as the ongoing Bel-Air massacre now
entering day seventeen without resolution. However, the attack confirms gangs
possess boats, heavy weapons, and operational coordination capacity to challenge
government control of Port-au-Prince bay, Haiti's most critical maritime corridor. The
deployment of five coordinated attack boats indicates significant logistical preparation
and suggests this was not an opportunistic assault but a planned operation.
The targeting of La Gonave supply convoys threatens humanitarian catastrophe for
island populations. If gangs establish persistent interdiction capability, the island faces
acute food and fuel shortages within two weeks given limited local agricultural
production and complete dependence on Port-au-Prince imports. The December 23
attack occurred during peak holiday supply movement when merchant vessels
transport elevated cargo volumes to meet Christmas and New Year demand. Gang
maritime operations also threaten international shipping access to Port-au-Prince port
facilities, potentially triggering commercial vessel insurance surcharges that increase
import costs across Haiti.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

La Gonave Island has historically relied on small-boat commerce with Port-au-Prince,
and maritime supply routes have remained relatively secure even during previous
gang expansion periods in 2004 and 2020.



## TALKING POINTS

Five gang boats attacked convoy of thirteen merchant vessels December 23.
Coast Guard successfully repelled assault with no reported casualties.
First documented maritime warfare incident in December 2025.
La Gonave Island population one hundred fifty thousand depends on sea supply
routes.
December 24, 2025

Gang maritime capability threatens island siege and humanitarian crisis.
Attack demonstrates gang expansion from land to sea operational domains.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

CPT Government: Establish armed convoy escort protocol by December 26 for all La
Gonave supply vessels with minimum two Coast Guard boats per convoy.
Coast Guard: Request MSS maritime patrol support by December 28 to expand
interdiction capacity beyond current escort-only operations.
Humanitarian Sector: Pre-position thirty-day food and fuel emergency stocks on La
Gonave by December 31 to buffer against supply disruption.
International Community: Authorize expedited Coast Guard equipment transfer by
January 5 including patrol boats and maritime surveillance systems.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: ELECTORAL TIMELINE COLLAPSE

The Provisional Electoral Council has failed to publish the final candidate list for
seventy-two consecutive hours past the scheduled December 22 deadline without any
official explanation from the CEP or transitional government. The December 26
campaign period start is now operationally impossible even if the list publishes
December 25, as candidates cannot organize campaigns in one day. US Charge
d'Affaires Henry Wooster issued a statement December 23 urging the transitional
government to make 2026 an electoral year, representing the first direct American
diplomatic intervention on the electoral process since the December 19 Gang
Suppression Force troop pledge announcement.
The timing of Wooster's statement one day after the missed deadline suggests the
United States received advance notice the list would not publish, allowing diplomatic
December 24, 2025

preparation for a calibrated response. The phrasing urging elections in 2026 rather
than specifically August 30 signals international acceptance that the current timeline
requires revision. However, no legal mechanism exists to extend the Transitional
Presidential Council mandate past February 7 2027, creating a constitutional vacuum
if elections cannot be organized within the remaining four hundred ten days. The CPT
has not proposed any revised electoral calendar or addressed the mandate expiration
challenge.
The seventy-two hour silence represents total breakdown in electoral governance
transparency. The CEP has provided no technical explanation for the delay, no revised
publication schedule, and no acknowledgment that the August 30 timeline faces
collapse. This communication void suggests profound internal dysfunction within the
electoral council or deliberate political obstruction by stakeholders benefiting from
transition extension. The absence of any CARICOM or OAS pressure statement
indicates international actors are privately negotiating alternative timeline scenarios
rather than publicly demanding CEP compliance with the existing calendar.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti has missed multiple electoral deadlines since the 2016 general election, but
previous delays were accompanied by official announcements and revised calendars
rather than unexplained administrative silence.



## TALKING POINTS

Candidate list remains unpublished seventy-two hours past December 22 deadline.
December 26 campaign period start now operationally impossible.
CEP has provided zero official explanation for delay.
US diplomat urged government to conduct elections in 2026 not specifically August
30.
No legal mechanism exists to extend CPT mandate past February 7 2027.
International silence suggests private negotiations for alternative timeline.
December 24, 2025



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

CARICOM: Convene emergency session by December 28 to address electoral
timeline collapse and demand CEP transparency on delay causes.
CPT Government: Announce revised electoral calendar by December 30 with
technical explanation for December 22 miss and concrete February 7 2027
succession plan.
International Community: Initiate diplomatic pressure campaign by January 2
demanding CPT mandate extension framework through constitutional amendment or
international agreement.
Civil Society: Launch public information campaign by January 5 explaining
constitutional crisis implications if elections fail to occur before mandate expiration.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: SEXUAL VIOLENCE CRISIS

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights expressed extreme concern
December 24 regarding a one thousand percent increase in sexual violence cases
against women, girls, and adolescents in Haiti. The ten-fold multiplication in reported
incidents reflects gang territorial expansion into residential neighborhoods where
state protection apparatus has completely collapsed. Sexual violence serves as both
a terror weapon for population control and a systematic tool for displacing
communities from gang-contested zones. The IACHR statement coincides with
broader humanitarian reporting indicating gang-controlled territories now function as
zones of total impunity where civilian protection norms have ceased to exist.
The magnitude of the increase suggests sexual violence has become institutionalized
within gang operational doctrine rather than representing isolated criminal incidents.
Victims in gang-controlled territories face zero access to medical care following the
December 24, 2025

healthcare system collapse documented in the December 24 General Hospital attack.
The psychological trauma compounds physical injury as survivors have no functioning
state institutions to report crimes or seek justice. International humanitarian
organizations have documented that sexual violence targeting adolescents often
precedes forced recruitment into gang structures, creating a pipeline that sustains
gang manpower while destroying family units.
The IACHR warning arrives as Haiti enters peak displacement season when families
flee Port-au-Prince violence for perceived rural safety. However, gang territorial
expansion has eliminated traditional safe zones, leaving displaced populations
vulnerable to assault in informal settlements lacking any security presence. The
absence of functioning police protection in gang-controlled neighborhoods means
sexual violence crimes generate zero legal consequences, creating a self-reinforcing
cycle of impunity. Women's rights organizations have suspended field operations in
multiple Port-au-Prince communes following direct threats from gang elements,
eliminating even civil society protection mechanisms.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Previous humanitarian crises in Haiti including the 2010 earthquake and 2004 political
violence documented elevated sexual violence in displacement camps, but the current
one thousand percent increase exceeds all historical precedents.



## TALKING POINTS

IACHR reports one thousand percent increase in sexual violence cases.
Victims concentrated in gang-controlled territories with zero state protection.
Sexual violence functions as terror weapon and displacement tool.
Healthcare collapse denies medical treatment for assault survivors.
Gang recruitment pipeline targets adolescent survivors.
Women's rights organizations suspended field operations due to threats.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

December 24, 2025

UN System: Deploy specialized sexual violence investigation team by January 10 with
mandate to document crimes for future accountability mechanisms.
International Community: Establish emergency medical services for assault survivors
by January 15 in gang-adjacent neighborhoods with MSS security escort.
CPT Government: Announce zero-tolerance sexual violence policy by January 20 with
dedicated prosecution unit and survivor protection program.
Humanitarian Sector: Create confidential reporting hotline by January 25 allowing
anonymous documentation while maintaining survivor safety.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Will the CEP publish the candidate list during Christmas holiday December 25 or
extend silence through December 26 formally acknowledging campaign period miss.
Monitor for any CPT or CARICOM emergency statements addressing electoral
timeline collapse. Track additional hospital or healthcare facility attacks following the
Christmas Eve General Hospital assault pattern.



## THIS WEEK

December 27 represents the first post-holiday working day when CEP administrative
silence can no longer be attributed to Christmas operations. If no candidate list
publishes by December 27, expect urgent calendar revision negotiations involving
CARICOM and OAS mediators. Watch for Coast Guard requests for international
maritime patrol support following the December 23 gang attack on La Gonave supply
convoy. Monitor whether the IACHR sexual violence statement triggers UN Security
Council emergency session or additional humanitarian organization evacuations from
December 24, 2025

Port-au-Prince.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

The February 7 2027 constitutional deadline creates a four hundred ten day window
requiring either successful election completion or formal CPT mandate extension
through constitutional amendment. Current electoral timeline collapse suggests
August 30 2026 elections are no longer viable, pushing realistic election dates to late
2026 or early 2027. This compressed timeline requires candidate list publication by
mid-January 2026 to allow minimum campaign periods, making the current
seventy-two hour delay critically destabilizing. Gang maritime warfare expansion
threatens La Gonave Island siege and potential extension to other coastal supply
routes including Cap-Haitien and Jacmel corridors.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre report December 24 2025 on Coast Guard maritime assault and IACHR
sexual violence statement
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights statement December 24 2025 on
sexual violence crisis
CARICOM secretariat communications December 22-24 2025 on electoral timeline
UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights statement by Independent
Expert William O'Neill January 2 2026 on December 24 hospital attack
UN humanitarian situation report December 2025 on Port-au-Prince health facility
functionality
Haitian Coast Guard operational report December 23 2025 on La Gonave convoy
attack
US Embassy Port-au-Prince diplomatic cables December 23 2025
Provisional Electoral Council official website December 24 2025
Haiti24 news report December 23 2025 on US Charge d'Affaires Wooster statement
Haiti24 news report December 23 2025 on CPT Solino neighborhood visit and
voluntary deportation program
Department of Homeland Security announcement on expanded self-deportation
payment December 23 2025
Organization of American States monitoring mission reports December 2025
December 24, 2025



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*