2026-02-27

Trigger: April 1 GSF first contingent arrival confirmation or delay announcement. February 27, 2026 Direction of travel: On-schedule arrival consolidates the security transition narrative and increases confidence in the August 30 electoral timeline. Delay would trigger a credibility crisis for both the Haitian government and contributing countries. Risk: Any GSF deployment delay beyond April 1 will be interpreted by gang networks as a window of opportunity and will be used by political opposition as evidence of transition failure. Trigger: CPT mandate expiration tracking under the Transitional Presidential Council's extended framework. Direction of travel: The CPT mandate under its current extension runs to February 7, 2027. Governance actors and opposition forces will begin positioning around this date as the electoral cycle moves closer to its projected culmination. Risk: Failure to seat elected officials before February 7, 2027 would create a second governance vacuum requiring another round of emergency transition architecture.