# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-27
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

---

## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: CEP-NATIONAL PACT CONSTITUTIONAL FRICTION EXPOSES](#development-1-cep-national-pact-constitutional-friction-exposes)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: KIDNAPPING SURGE TRIGGERS EMERGENCY SECURITY MEETING IN](#development-2-kidnapping-surge-triggers-emergency-security-meeting-in)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: PM FILS-AIME RETURNS FROM CARICOM WITHOUT NEW FINANCIAL](#development-3-pm-fils-aime-returns-from-caricom-without-new-financial)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: GSF APRIL 1 DATE CONFIRMED AND HUMANITARIAN INDICATORS HELD](#development-4-gsf-april-1-date-confirmed-and-humanitarian-indicators-held)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

---


## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Haiti's institutional architecture entered a zone of friction on February 27 as the Provisional Electoral
Council publicly rejected any mandate to administer the constitutional referendum envisioned by the
National Pact's Article 12, exposing a foundational gap between the Pact's electoral ambitions and
the CEP's legal authority. Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime returned from the 50th CARICOM
summit reaffirming security as the overriding national priority, while the installation of new fiscal
leadership at the Ministry of Finance and the DGI signals a revenue modernization push. The Gang
Suppression Force first contingents remain confirmed for April 1, 2026. Stakeholders must monitor
whether the CEP-Pact friction escalates into a formal institutional impasse that disrupts the August
30 electoral timeline.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

CEP publicly states it lacks legal authority to administer the constitutional referendum required by
National Pact Article 12.
PM Fils-Aime returned from CARICOM with no new international financial commitments secured for
Haiti's security transition.
New Finance Minister Serge Gabriel Colin and DGI Director General Chesnel Francois installed
February 25 with digital revenue reform mandate.
GSF first contingents publicly confirmed for April 1 arrival date by Le Nouvelliste citing government
sources.
Gourde stable at 131.16 per USD with no devaluation alert and Q1 2026 forecast holding at 130.98.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: CEP-NATIONAL PACT CONSTITUTIONAL FRICTION EXPOSES

GOVERNANCE GAP
The Provisional Electoral Council issued a public statement through a member interviewed by Le
Nouvelliste on February 25 declaring that the institution lacks both the legal mandate and the
institutional authority to organize the constitutional modifications called for under Article 12 of the
National Pact for Stability and the Organization of Elections. The CEP member explicitly stated that
the council was not consulted during the Pact's drafting process, a procedural omission that now
creates a structural liability at the core of the document signed by more than 200 political parties
and civil society organizations.
The significance of this friction extends beyond procedural complaint. The National Pact operates on
the assumption that the CEP will simultaneously administer first-round general elections and a
concurrent constitutional referendum, with the referendum anchored to a provision allowing a limited
number of constitutional changes approved through popular vote alongside the electoral process.
The CEP's rejection of this dual mandate means the Pact contains a provision that currently has no
implementing institution. Either the constitutional referendum track must be stripped from the Pact
through renegotiation, a separate legal instrument must be crafted granting the CEP referendum
authority it does not currently hold, or the provision risks becoming a permanent point of contention
among Pact signatories.
February 27, 2026

This development fits a recurring pattern. The Transitional Presidential Council abandoned its own
constitutional reform initiative in October 2025 under analogous institutional constraints,
demonstrating that constitutional modification ambitions have consistently outpaced the legal
architecture available to implement them. Le Nouvelliste's editorial board separately flagged that the
National Pact grants PM Fils-Aime full governing powers without a defined expiration date, unlike the
April 3, 2024 agreement that established the CPT, with the Pact remaining in effect until elected
officials are installed. This creates a potentially indefinite mandate with no built-in sunset
mechanism, a structural vulnerability that opposition actors and legitimacy challengers will exploit as
the transition progresses.
The immediate operational risk for the August 30 first-round timeline is real but not yet
determinative. The CEP has not issued a formal decree suspending electoral preparations. However,
the absence of an implementing mechanism for Article 12 means the referendum track is effectively
in suspension, and any political actor seeking to delay elections has a ready-made procedural
argument.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti has not held a constitutional referendum since 1987, when the post-Duvalier transition
produced the current constitutional framework. All subsequent constitutional modification efforts,
including the 2021 initiative under President Moise, collapsed under contested legitimacy or
institutional obstruction. The pattern of electoral ambition exceeding institutional capacity is a
structural feature of Haitian governance cycles, not an anomaly.



## TALKING POINTS

The CEP's public rejection of referendum authority is the most significant governance signal of the
day and must be tracked as a primary electoral risk indicator.
Pact signatories have no enforcement mechanism to compel CEP compliance with Article 12 as
currently drafted.
PM Fils-Aime's government must either renegotiate Article 12, create a new legal instrument, or
allow the referendum provision to become a dead letter.
The indefinite mandate language in the Pact represents a legitimacy exposure that will compound
over time if elections are delayed.
This development is structurally distinct from and more significant than any single security incident
recorded today.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should formally request clarification from the CEP and PM's office on the
legal pathway for Article 12 implementation within the next two weeks.
Diplomatic missions should assess whether the CEP-Pact friction warrants inclusion in the next
BINUH or OAS monitoring report as a structural risk to the August 30 timeline.
February 27, 2026

Private sector legal counsel should flag the indefinite mandate language in the Pact as a contractual
and regulatory uncertainty factor for investment planning through 2026.
Political actors aligned with Pact signatories should demand a formal written CEP position by March
15 to prevent this friction from hardening into an impasse.
Diaspora-focused organizations tracking electoral participation should note that the referendum
track, if unresolved, could complicate diaspora voting procedure publication timelines.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: KIDNAPPING SURGE TRIGGERS EMERGENCY SECURITY MEETING IN

DELMAS
Minister of Justice Patrick Pelissier, serving as acting Prime Minister during Fils-Aime's CARICOM
travel, chaired a high-level strategic security meeting in Delmas on February 25 in direct response to
what Le Nouvelliste described as a kidnapping surge across the metropolitan area. The meeting
convened PNH High Command including the Director General, the Central Directorate of Judicial
Police, the Central Directorate of Administrative Police, and the West 1 and West 2 Departmental
Directorates, alongside Delmas Mayor Wilson Jeudy and central government representatives.
The operational measures announced at the meeting reflect an enhanced posture across all ten
departments. PNH leadership committed to optimizing mobile patrol density and fixed checkpoint
coverage, intensifying prevention operations, expanding police outposts and forward operating
bases, enforcing stricter internal troop identification protocols, and activating structured civilian
collaboration through anti-kidnapping alert mechanisms. The scope of the announced measures
extending to all ten departments rather than only the metropolitan zone signals recognition that
kidnapping networks have operational reach beyond Port-au-Prince.
The meeting was preceded by three significant security incidents that define the operational context.
On the night of February 20 to 21, a large-scale anti-gang operation in Kenscoff resulted in at least
16 gang members killed through a combination of sniper fire and drone deployment, with Task Force
elements and private military contractor assets confirmed as participants. On February 23, a
kidnapping interdiction operation in Delmas 48 killed six kidnappers including a figure identified as
Kalash, but also killed two PNH officers, Junior Dorelus of the SWAT unit and Isreno Etienne of the
Bureau of Investigation. Eight firearms and three vehicles were seized. On February 24, two
additional suspected kidnapping network members were arrested in Port-au-Prince. The deaths of
two officers in a single Delmas interdiction operation on February 23 are operationally significant,
indicating that kidnapping networks are offering armed resistance at a level that generates PNH
casualties.
The Carrefour-Aeroport substation, which had been seized and burned by gang forces, reopened as
February 27, 2026

a renovated police station with businesses beginning to return to the corridor. This represents a
concrete territorial recovery indicator, though DW's February 27 documentary on the Viv Ansanm
coalition documented continued gang control over schools and healthcare facilities across large
sections of Port-au-Prince, illustrating the fragmented and contested nature of security gains.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Kidnapping for ransom has functioned as a primary gang revenue stream in Haiti since the collapse
of state authority in the metropolitan area accelerated in 2021. BINUH documented 5,915
conflict-related deaths in 2025 and noted that security force actions supported by the GSF have
produced localized territorial gains, but gang financing through kidnapping and extortion has proven
structurally resilient to interdiction-focused responses.



## TALKING POINTS

Two PNH officers killed in a single February 23 operation signals high operational tempo and officer
attrition risk that may constrain sustained anti-kidnapping campaign capacity.
The ten-department scope of announced operational measures reflects official recognition that
kidnapping networks have national rather than metropolitan reach.
The Kenscoff operation's use of drones and confirmed private military contractor involvement
represents a tactical evolution that requires monitoring for escalation dynamics.
The Carrefour-Aeroport corridor recovery is a positive territorial signal but remains fragile and
geographically limited.
The DW documentary on Viv Ansanm, broadcast February 27, will likely amplify international media
pressure on the Haitian government regarding gang control metrics.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

NGO security managers should reassess kidnapping risk protocols for all departments given the
explicit ten-department operational framing of the February 25 security meeting.
Business security officers should monitor whether the announced mobile patrol and checkpoint
expansion translates into measurable incident reduction over the next 30 days before revising risk
ratings.
International donors should request a PNH casualty and attrition report for Q1 2026 to assess
whether officer losses are structurally degrading unit capacity.
Diplomatic missions should request a formal technical briefing from PNH High Command on the role
and legal status of private military contractor assets in the Kenscoff operation.
Diaspora organizations with family networks in departments outside Port-au-Prince should
communicate the ten-department kidnapping alert status to community networks.
CONFIDENCE
February 27, 2026

Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: PM FILS-AIME RETURNS FROM CARICOM WITHOUT NEW FINANCIAL

COMMITMENTS
Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime landed at Toussaint Louverture International Airport on February
26 and delivered a public briefing from the diplomatic lounge flanked by government ministers, the
PNH Acting Commander-in-Chief, and FAd'H representatives. The staging of the briefing at the
airport alongside security leadership was an intentional signaling exercise: security as the
institutional frame for the entire CARICOM engagement. Fils-Aime declared that the National Pact
had been welcomed by regional and international partners as a strong signal of commitment to
dialogue and described constructive exchanges with UAE representatives on strategic partnerships
encompassing security cooperation, foreign investment, and financial oversight.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's appearance at the CARICOM summit produced a rhetorically
significant but materially limited outcome for Haiti. Rubio stated that the United States will hold
accountable all those who support gangs, including corrupt politicians who contribute to the
destabilization of Haiti. However, the CARICOM summit produced no new dollar commitments to
Haiti's security transition, no named security initiative specifically directed at Haiti, and no expansion
of the financial architecture supporting the Multinational Security Support mission. The warning thus
represents a continuation of the rhetorical accountability posture maintained by Washington since
the Biden administration, without the sanctions actions or funding announcements that would give
the posture operational weight.
The UAE engagement noted by Fils-Aime is a development requiring close monitoring. Strategic
partnerships in security, foreign investment, and financial oversight with Abu Dhabi represent
potential access to funding streams outside the traditional US-Canada-France donor framework that
has historically conditioned international support. If UAE engagement moves from exploratory
conversation to formal agreement, it could provide the government with financial autonomy that
reduces leverage held by traditional bilateral partners, an outcome that both diversifies Haiti's
transition financing and potentially reduces accountability conditionality.
Four appointments were installed on February 25 that define the government's economic
management posture. Serge Gabriel Colin, former Director General of the Social Assistance and
Economic Stimulus Fund, was named Minister of Economy and Finance. Colin installed Chesnel
Francois as Director General of the General Tax Directorate with an explicit mandate for fiscal
performance modernization and digital reform. Kesner Romilus was installed as Director General of
FAES, and Luckson Philemond was named General Coordinator of the National School Canteen
Program. The new DGI leadership explicitly acknowledged the departure of experienced personnel
abroad and persistent revenue underperformance under the previous administration, framing the
transition as a reset toward digital compliance enforcement.
February 27, 2026



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's fiscal administration has chronically underperformed budget projections, with domestic
revenue collection unable to meet more than a fraction of government spending requirements,
forcing dependence on international budget support and remittance inflows. CARICOM has served
as the primary regional diplomatic framework for Haiti transition management since the 2021
assassination of President Moise, with the organization co-facilitating the negotiation frameworks
that produced both the CPT structure and now the National Pact.



## TALKING POINTS

Rubio's accountability warning at CARICOM carries rhetorical weight but zero new operational
content for Haiti's security transition without accompanying sanctions or funding.
UAE engagement on security, investment, and financial oversight is the most consequential new
bilateral signal from the CARICOM period and must be tracked through its implementation phase.
New DGI leadership's digital reform mandate signals stricter tax compliance enforcement with direct
operational implications for businesses operating in Haiti.
The National Pact's indefinite mandate for Fils-Aime, combined with CARICOM backing, gives the
PM the strongest international legitimacy base of any Haitian executive since 2021.
New Finance Minister Colin's FAES background positions him toward social investment
programming, potentially creating tension with the DGI's revenue enforcement mandate.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Businesses operating in Haiti should immediately review tax compliance posture in anticipation of
DGI enforcement intensification under new leadership aligned with digital audit systems.
Diplomatic missions should request a formal read-out from the government on the UAE strategic
partnership discussions within two weeks to determine scope and conditionality.
International donors should coordinate on whether Rubio's accountability warning will be followed by
a formal US sanctions package targeting specific politically connected gang financiers before the
April 1 GSF deployment.
Private sector investors should note that the Colombia buyer forum on April 14 to 15 represents an
actionable trade diversification opportunity that does not depend on Port-au-Prince security
normalization.
Diaspora stakeholders tracking electoral participation should register the continued absence of
published CEP diaspora voting procedures as the most immediate electoral access risk pending
resolution.
CONFIDENCE
February 27, 2026

High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: GSF APRIL 1 DATE CONFIRMED AND HUMANITARIAN INDICATORS HELD

STABLE
Le Nouvelliste confirmed on February 27 that the Haitian state intends to allocate millions of dollars
to co-finance the Gang Suppression Force, with first contingents expected to arrive in Haiti on April
1, 2026. This represents the most specific and authoritatively sourced date yet published for GSF
operational deployment and advances the timeline from the previously vague first-quarter-2026
framing. Prime Minister Fils-Aime briefed CARICOM Secretary General Carla Barnett on FAd'H and
PNH strengthening needs and on the logistical requirements for GSF deployment support during the
summit. The April 1 date now functions as a public commitment with both domestic and international
visibility.
The BINUH Q4 2025 quarterly report, released in January 2026, recorded 5,915 conflict-related
deaths in Haiti during 2025 and documented that security force actions supported by the GSF and
the Multinational Security Support mission produced localized territorial gains. The report's framing
confirms that the GSF operational model delivers incremental, geography-specific results rather than
metropolitan-wide security transformation. The Carrefour-Aeroport corridor recovery reported this
week by AP News is consistent with this model and represents a genuine if limited operational gain.
The Deutsche Welle documentary broadcast February 27 provided a countervailing data point,
documenting that Viv Ansanm maintains structural control of large sections of Port-au-Prince and
continues to finance operations through kidnapping and extortion revenue streams that have not
been disrupted by current security operations.
Humanitarian indicators are held stable from the prior reporting cycle. The International Organization
for Migration's displacement tracking matrix recorded 1,450,254 internally displaced persons as of
February 26, and the World Food Programme records 5.7 million food-insecure Haitians
representing approximately half the population, with 277,000 children in acute malnutrition. The
gourde exchange rate closed at 131.16 per USD on February 25 with a daily change of positive 0.16
percent, a monthly depreciation of 0.89 percent, and a 12-month depreciation of 0.54 percent
against the USD. The Q1 2026 forecast stands at 130.98 per USD. No devaluation alert is
warranted. The Ministry of Agriculture and Expertise France signed a memorandum of
understanding under the PMSAN II program to support agricultural production in Leogane,
Grand-Goave, and Petit-Goave, co-financed by the EU and the French Development Agency.
A shipwreck off Ile de la Gonave on February 24 resulted in one death, one person missing, and
four rescued when the goods-carrying vessel Masa Lasa capsized in heavy swells. The incident is
operationally significant for humanitarian logistics planning because island communities cut off from
overland routes depend entirely on maritime transport, and vessel safety standards in Haiti's
informal maritime sector remain unregulated and dangerous.
February 27, 2026



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Gang Suppression Force was authorized by the Kenyan government and approved through
UNSC mechanisms in 2024 as the backbone of a multilateral security support architecture intended
to create conditions for Haiti's electoral transition. Kenya's first deployment encountered operational
constraints including funding gaps and logistical challenges that pushed the initial timeline. Each
confirmation of an April 1 date from the Haitian government side represents an incremental
reduction of uncertainty in a deployment sequence that has faced repeated schedule pressure.



## TALKING POINTS

April 1 GSF first contingent arrival is now a public Haitian government commitment, increasing
accountability for non-delivery on both the government and contributing countries.
The gourde's sustained stability through Q1 2026 is a positive macroeconomic signal that reduces
one category of business continuity risk.
The Viv Ansanm coalition's continued structural presence documented in the DW report must be
weighed against the Carrefour-Aeroport territorial recovery as contradictory but simultaneous
realities of the current security environment.
HOPE/HELP Senate renewal remains pending, with the House having passed the bill 345 to 45 in
January 2026. A Senate delay beyond April creates direct risk to Haiti's textile employment base.
The agricultural MOU for the South Department corridor is operationally significant for EU and AFD
program managers and provides a concrete stability investment signal in a period dominated by
security headlines.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

GSF contributing countries should confirm logistical pre-positioning requirements for April 1
deployment within the next two weeks to prevent a repeat of the 2024 timeline slippage.
Businesses dependent on the Gonave Island supply chain should immediately audit vessel safety
and cargo insurance arrangements given the demonstrated maritime risk conditions.
US Congressional liaisons for Haiti stakeholders should prioritize HOPE/HELP Senate scheduling
confirmation before the April recess to prevent a legislative gap that would directly harm textile
employment.
Humanitarian program managers should treat the 1.45 million displacement figure as a minimum
baseline and build operational surge capacity into Q2 2026 programming given the April GSF
deployment timeline.
International financial institutions should note the new DGI leadership's revenue modernization
mandate as an indicator of fiscal reform intent and request a formal reform timeline before the next
IMF/World Bank Haiti consultation cycle.
CONFIDENCE
February 27, 2026

Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Trigger: CEP issues or declines to issue a formal written institutional position on Article 12 of the
National Pact.
Direction of travel: If the CEP formalizes its rejection, the Pact's constitutional referendum track
moves from friction to impasse, requiring emergency renegotiation.
Risk: An informal standoff that persists without formal resolution creates a low-visibility but
high-impact structural vulnerability to the August 30 electoral timeline.
Trigger: PNH casualty and operational tempo reporting following the February 23 Delmas officer
deaths.
Direction of travel: If officer casualty rates remain elevated, PNH High Command may request
accelerated GSF deployment or scale back anti-kidnapping operation intensity.
Risk: Officer attrition at current tempo could degrade unit cohesion and institutional morale entering
the critical pre-election security period.



## THIS WEEK

Trigger: UAE-Haiti strategic partnership details emerging through diplomatic channels or official
government communications.
Direction of travel: If the UAE engagement moves from exploratory to formalized, it signals a
deliberate Haitian government strategy to diversify away from traditional Western donor
conditionality.
Risk: New bilateral funding without accountability conditionality may reduce international leverage
over governance reform timelines.
Trigger: HOPE/HELP Senate scheduling confirmation or absence thereof.
Direction of travel: A Senate vote before April recess preserves Haiti's textile employment base.
Absence of scheduling represents a legislative threat requiring diaspora and private sector advocacy
escalation.
Risk: Legislative gap in HOPE/HELP authorization would immediately affect employment for tens of
thousands of Haitian textile workers at a moment of acute economic vulnerability.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Trigger: April 1 GSF first contingent arrival confirmation or delay announcement.
February 27, 2026

Direction of travel: On-schedule arrival consolidates the security transition narrative and
increases confidence in the August 30 electoral timeline. Delay would trigger a credibility
crisis for both the Haitian government and contributing countries.
Risk: Any GSF deployment delay beyond April 1 will be interpreted by gang networks as a window of
opportunity and will be used by political opposition as evidence of transition failure.
Trigger: CPT mandate expiration tracking under the Transitional Presidential Council's extended
framework.
Direction of travel: The CPT mandate under its current extension runs to February 7, 2027.
Governance actors and opposition forces will begin positioning around this date as the electoral
cycle moves closer to its projected culmination.
Risk: Failure to seat elected officials before February 7, 2027 would create a second governance
vacuum requiring another round of emergency transition architecture.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Le Nouvelliste -- CEP Lacks Authority to Change the Constitution as Intended by the National Pact
for Stability -- February 25, 2026 -- lenouvelliste.com/en/article/264647
Haiti Libre -- High-level strategic meeting on strengthening national security -- February 25, 2026 --
haitilibre.com/en/news-46936
Le Nouvelliste -- Fils-Aime Reiterates Commitment to National Security Following CARICOM Trip --
February 26, 2026 -- lenouvelliste.com/en/article/264636
US Embassy Haiti -- X post, Secretary Rubio meeting with Haitian PM -- February 25, 2026 --
x.com/USEmbassyHaiti
Tempo Networks -- Here's What Marco Rubio Offered CARICOM Leaders at St. Kitts Summit --
February 25, 2026 -- temponetworks.com
IOM / ReliefWeb -- Haiti Internal Displacement Situation amid Increasing Insecurity -- February 26,
2026 -- reliefweb.int
Haiti Libre -- Kidnapping foiled, 8 dead including 2 police officers -- February 23, 2026 --
haitilibre.com/en/news-46921
AP News -- Haiti retakes control of key area in capital from gangs -- February 26, 2026 --
apnews.com/article/haiti-control-gangs-carrefour-aeroport
OCCRP -- Haitian Police Kill 16 Suspected Gang Members in Anti-Gang Sweep -- February 21,
2026 -- occrp.org/en/news
Haiti Libre -- PM returns from Saint Kitts and Nevis -- February 26, 2026 --
haitilibre.com/en/news-46945
Juno7 -- Haiti News Today, February 24, 2026 -- juno7.ht
Gazette Haiti -- Chesnel Francois prend les renes de la DGI -- February 25, 2026 --
gazettehaiti.com/node/13454
February 27, 2026



---

*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*