2026-02-23

Trigger: National Pact implementation mechanism activation and international community formal response. Direction: Determination of whether the Pact functions as a genuine transition framework or a negotiating posture by competing factions. Risk: If international community withholds formal endorsement, Pact loses the external legitimacy anchor required for domestic political uptake. February 23, 2026 Trigger: CPT governance continuity review as the February 7, 2027 mandate horizon enters the strategic planning window. Direction: Scenario mapping for post-CPT institutional arrangements. Risk: Without advance planning for mandate succession, the February 2027 date becomes a political shock rather than a managed transition milestone. Trigger: Sustained armed group pressure on utility sector personnel following Kenscoff precedent. Direction: Potential systemic withdrawal of essential service maintenance staff from conflict-adjacent zones. Risk: If telecom, water, and power sector workers assess personal risk as unacceptable, infrastructure degradation in secondary urban zones accelerates beyond current projections.