2026-02-23

Trigger: Confirmation of Artibonite armored vehicle asset origin, donor-delivered versus fleet redeployment. Direction: Sustainability assessment of PNH reinforcement in the department. Risk: If redeployment from existing fleet, net capability gain is zero and Artibonite risk classification should remain unchanged. Trigger: CEP communication on electoral calendar operational milestones following decree re-circulation. Direction: Assessment of whether procedural reaffirmation translates into logistical activation. Risk: Absence of operational follow-through within the week confirms that the re-circulation is symbolic rather than substantive. Trigger: Additional commune-level Rara or public assembly cancellations across southwest or Artibonite departments. Direction: Geographic diffusion rate of precautionary insecurity measures beyond primary metropolitan zone. Risk: Cluster of cancellations across multiple communes signals accelerating civil space compression requiring revised regional risk assessments.