2026-02-19

The Caribbean-EU Council of Ministers response to the Parliamentary Assembly's Haiti recommendations will determine whether the multilateral framework expands or stagnates; trigger is the next scheduled Council session; direction is toward either institutionalized engagement or reversion to ad hoc crisis response. The GSF April deployment remains the dominant security calendar anchor; trigger is any deviation from the April timeline announced by Kenya or the BINUH; risk is that a delay collapses the current security reform momentum before it consolidates. The CPT mandate expiration on February 7, 2027, remains the hard political deadline governing all transition planning; any electoral slippage that extends beyond that date triggers a constitutional legitimacy crisis with no established resolution mechanism.