2026-02-19

The amending budget framework is expected to take shape in the first post-Carnival government sessions; trigger is any executive submission to the legislative body; direction is toward either a credible electoral financing package or a delay that accelerates CEP calendar slippage. The second FOB location and capability details should become available; trigger is official MSS or BINUH disclosure; risk is that operational opacity undermines donor confidence. PNH vehicle readiness gap must be addressed before April GSF arrival; trigger is any Ministry of Interior or PNH statement on maintenance contracts; risk is that fleet expansion metrics conceal a capability plateau. February 19, 2026