2026-02-19

The D.C. Circuit TPS ruling can arrive at any moment; trigger is panel consensus; direction is binary and consequence is immediate for 300,000 Haitians and Haiti's remittance economy. The US Embassy security alert issued February 19 requires full content review; trigger is any staff movement restriction; risk is escalation of post-Carnival gang activity. The Izo bounty announcement may trigger gang retaliation in 5 Segond-controlled zones; trigger is any armed incident in Village de Dieu or adjacent areas; risk is targeted attacks on perceived informant networks.