2026-02-09

GSF first contingents arrive April 2026 creating initial capacity increase but full deployment delayed until October 2026. Kenya MSS withdrawal timing unclear creating risk of security gap if not coordinated with GSF buildup. Electoral calendar shows campaign period beginning May 19, 2026 with first round August 30, 2026 but competing governance structures create uncertainty about which authority oversees process. France judicial mobilization call may trigger prosecutions of gang supporters and corrupt officials altering political landscape. US military financing implementation for FAd'H will establish partnership precedent affecting long-term security cooperation architecture.