2026-02-09

International stakeholders should issue coordinated statements clarifying which governance structure receives recognition to prevent dual-authority legitimacy crisis. Monitor for official arrete from Fils-Aime government establishing legal basis for post-CPT authority and compare with Collège proposed framework. Track composition announcements for both Collège commissions to assess political coalition building and institutional capacity. Private sector should maintain operational continuity while monitoring for policy divergence between competing structures. Humanitarian actors should establish clear communication channels with recognized authority to ensure coordination on emergency response. Diaspora organizations should pressure for unified governance structure to prevent electoral process fragmentation. CONFIDENCE Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.