2026-02-05
STRATEGIC HORIZON
Electoral timeline credibility depends on whether the Provisional Electoral Council
maintains May 19 campaign launch and August 30 first round dates despite material
impossibility statements. Gang Suppression Force full deployment timeline of summer
to autumn 2026 requires stable government counterparts for coordination. UN
Support Office April 1 operational deadline and BINUH mandate through January
2027 provide mission continuity framework. Constitutional Court challenges to any
post-transition governance structure could emerge if domestic actors contest PM
continuation legitimacy.