2026-02-02

Daily Intelligence Brief (English) | 11 pages

DEVELOPMENT 2

The Transitional Presidential Council launched three-day political dialogue February 1-3 at Petion-Ville hotel bringing together hundreds of participants from political parties, religious leaders, unions and civil society to negotiate post-February 7 governance architecture. As of February 2 no official announcement of consensus or agreed framework has been detected in available sources despite CPT co-presidents Leslie Voltaire and Edgard Leblanc Fils emphasizing urgency of reaching new political accord as the indispensable framework for redefining national governance beyond February 7. The dialogue faces fundamental legitimacy challenges as during the first day January 18 four of six invited political blocs declined participation arguing there is no dialogue possible with the CPT that must leave power at any cost on February 7. Multiple competing transition frameworks remain on the table without convergence. A coalition of 70-plus political parties proposed in November 2025 a one-year transition excluding current CPT members with dual executive system of transitional president plus prime minister and elections in late 2026. A civil society initiative from January 5 presented framework choosing between retaining PM Fils-Aime or selecting civil society figure while excluding political party members from president and PM positions to prevent electoral bias. The Montana Accord proposed in August 2025 a three-member transitional presidential council plus technocratic cabinet with oversight body. A coalition of former prime ministers proposed one-year extension starting February 7. International community positions are explicit and unified. UN Special Representative Carlos Ruiz warned January 20 that the country has no time to waste on prolonged internecine fighting and urged stakeholders to find common ground ahead of February 7. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated unequivocally January 23 that the CPT must be disbanded by February 7. The OAS reiterated January 22 that the CPT mandate ends February 7 per the April 3 2024 Agreement which explicitly prohibits extension. UN envoy Ruiz noted January 22 that if political actors fail to reach February 02, 2026 consensus by February 7 the constitution allows for the prime minister to remain in office under such circumstances suggesting PM Alix Didier Fils-Aime could continue as caretaker executive. The Montana Accord maintains hardline position rejecting dialogue with CPT. On January 26 the Montana Accord Bureau welcomed the dismissal of the Prime Minister and called for sovereign transition. On January 16 Montana signatories pressured the CPT to act before February 7 demanding PM Fils-Aime removal and replacement with interim head of government whose mandate would end February 6. They alleged corruption, insubordination and unauthorized foreign relations prejudicial to national sovereignty. This position conflicts with U.S. and UN support for Fils-Aime continuation and risks Montana marginalization if international community recognizes PM-led caretaker government post-February 7.