# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-02
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3:](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Haiti confronts three simultaneous critical decision points within five days. A U.S.
federal court ruling expected today will determine deportation risk for 350,000 Haitian
TPS holders as protections expire February 3. Political dialogue concludes February 3
with no announced consensus on post-February 7 governance framework despite
international pressure and constitutional deadline. Security conditions remain tense
following January 31 U.S. Embassy alert though no major incidents occurred in the last
24 hours. The exchange rate holds at 131.20 HTG/USD while gang territorial control
persists at 80-90 percent of Port-au-Prince.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes ruling expected today on TPS termination affecting
350,000 Haitians with protections expiring February 3.
Transitional Presidential Council political dialogue ends February 3 with no public
consensus on succession framework five days before mandate expiration.
No major security incidents in last 24 hours following January 31 Embassy alert but
PNH-gang violence cycle continues.
Exchange rate stable at 131.20 HTG/USD despite political uncertainty and security
deterioration.
BINUH mandate renewed to January 2027 but operational effectiveness requires stable
Haitian government counterpart.



## DEVELOPMENT 1

U.S. District Court Judge Ana Reyes is expected to rule today on whether to pause
Temporary Protected Status termination for Haiti affecting approximately 350,000 TPS
holders plus 150,000 with pending applications. TPS protections expire February 3
2026 at 11:59 PM placing this population at immediate deportation risk. Judge Reyes
stated during January 7 hearings she would issue her ruling by February 2 and
expressed skepticism about the administration's safety justification telling the DHS
attorney the evidence does not allow determination of whether TPS holders can safely
February 02, 2026

return to Haiti.
The legal backdrop involves contradictory U.S. government positions. The Ninth Circuit
Court of Appeals ruled January 28 that DHS Secretary Kristi Noem exceeded her
statutory authority when terminating TPS for Haiti and Venezuela finding actions were
not reached in accordance with procedures established by Congress. However the
Supreme Court previously allowed terminations to proceed pending final resolution
meaning the Ninth Circuit ruling has no immediate practical effect. Judge Reyes'
separate case in D.C. District Court could provide emergency relief through a pause
order. The U.S. Embassy in Port-au-Prince characterized Haiti as currently at stage four
to not travel like a war zone and has removed 80-90 percent of personnel due to
insecurity yet the same U.S. government claims conditions are safe enough for half a
million Haitians to be returned.
Community terror is widespread according to Guerline Jozef of the Haitian Bridge
Alliance who reports planned 30-day ICE raids targeting major cities with Haitian
populations including Springfield Ohio, Charleroi Pennsylvania, San Diego and New
York City. Springfield officials are bracing for an ICE surge particularly notable as the
city was the center of racist smears during the 2024 presidential campaign. On
February 2 elected officials including Massachusetts State Representative Latyna
Humphrey and Everett Massachusetts Mayor Robert Van Campen held community
meetings calling for TPS extension emphasizing that Temporary Protected Status has
allowed Haitian families to live work and contribute safely in communities.
Operational implications are severe across multiple domains. Remittances totaling 4.1
billion dollars in 2024 representing 18.43 percent of Haiti's projected 2026 GNDI could
decline 10-15 percent if 350,000 working-age TPS holders lose employment
authorization. Deportation logistics face insurmountable barriers as Toussaint
Louverture Airport operates under FAA commercial flight ban until March 7, gangs
control airport access roads, and Haiti lacks reception capacity for mass returns.
Political pressure from TPS termination creates additional destabilization pressure on
already fragile transition government. Regional spillover would likely accelerate boat
migration to Florida, Bahamas and Turks and Caicos if deportations proceed.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Temporary Protected Status for Haiti was initially designated following the January
February 02, 2026

2010 earthquake and has been extended continuously through multiple administrations
based on extraordinary and temporary conditions preventing safe return.



## TALKING POINTS

Judge Reyes ruling today determines immediate fate of 350,000 Haitians with work
authorization and deportation protection expiring February 3.
U.S. government maintains contradictory positions claiming Haiti safe for deportations
while Embassy describes war zone conditions and removed 80-90 percent personnel.
Deportation of TPS holders would eliminate 400-600 million dollars in annual
remittances representing 10-15 percent of Haiti's 4.1 billion dollar 2024 total.
Haiti lacks physical capacity to receive mass deportations with airport under FAA ban
through March 7, gang control of access routes, and no reception infrastructure.
Political mobilization increasing with elected officials, Congressional Black Caucus and
Caribbean-American caucus coordinating advocacy for legislative TPS extension.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should prepare contingency protocols for potential 10-15
percent remittance decline impact on humanitarian needs if ruling denies pause.
Businesses with Haitian workforce exposure in U.S. operations should prepare for
potential labor disruption if work authorizations terminate February 3.
Legal services organizations should pre-position individual asylum application support
as fallback if TPS termination proceeds.
Haitian diaspora advocacy groups should leverage favorable ruling if obtained to
intensify Senate pressure for legislative TPS extension before protections expire.
Caribbean governments should prepare maritime interdiction and reception protocols
for likely acceleration of boat migration if mass deportations commence.
February 02, 2026

CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

The Transitional Presidential Council launched three-day political dialogue February 1-3
at Petion-Ville hotel bringing together hundreds of participants from political parties,
religious leaders, unions and civil society to negotiate post-February 7 governance
architecture. As of February 2 no official announcement of consensus or agreed
framework has been detected in available sources despite CPT co-presidents Leslie
Voltaire and Edgard Leblanc Fils emphasizing urgency of reaching new political accord
as the indispensable framework for redefining national governance beyond February 7.
The dialogue faces fundamental legitimacy challenges as during the first day January
18 four of six invited political blocs declined participation arguing there is no dialogue
possible with the CPT that must leave power at any cost on February 7.
Multiple competing transition frameworks remain on the table without convergence. A
coalition of 70-plus political parties proposed in November 2025 a one-year transition
excluding current CPT members with dual executive system of transitional president
plus prime minister and elections in late 2026. A civil society initiative from January 5
presented framework choosing between retaining PM Fils-Aime or selecting civil
society figure while excluding political party members from president and PM positions
to prevent electoral bias. The Montana Accord proposed in August 2025 a
three-member transitional presidential council plus technocratic cabinet with oversight
body. A coalition of former prime ministers proposed one-year extension starting
February 7.
International community positions are explicit and unified. UN Special Representative
Carlos Ruiz warned January 20 that the country has no time to waste on prolonged
internecine fighting and urged stakeholders to find common ground ahead of February
7. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated unequivocally January 23 that the CPT
must be disbanded by February 7. The OAS reiterated January 22 that the CPT
mandate ends February 7 per the April 3 2024 Agreement which explicitly prohibits
extension. UN envoy Ruiz noted January 22 that if political actors fail to reach
February 02, 2026

consensus by February 7 the constitution allows for the prime minister to remain in
office under such circumstances suggesting PM Alix Didier Fils-Aime could continue as
caretaker executive.
The Montana Accord maintains hardline position rejecting dialogue with CPT. On
January 26 the Montana Accord Bureau welcomed the dismissal of the Prime Minister
and called for sovereign transition. On January 16 Montana signatories pressured the
CPT to act before February 7 demanding PM Fils-Aime removal and replacement with
interim head of government whose mandate would end February 6. They alleged
corruption, insubordination and unauthorized foreign relations prejudicial to national
sovereignty. This position conflicts with U.S. and UN support for Fils-Aime continuation
and risks Montana marginalization if international community recognizes PM-led
caretaker government post-February 7.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The April 3 2024 Agreement that created the Transitional Presidential Council specified
a mandate ending February 7 2026 with explicit prohibition on extension.



## TALKING POINTS

Political dialogue concludes February 3 with no announced consensus on
post-February 7 governance framework despite three days of negotiations.
Four competing transition proposals remain on table including 70-plus party coalition,
civil society initiative, Montana Accord and former PM coalition.
International community unified that CPT mandate ends February 7 with U.S., UN and
OAS explicitly stating no extension permitted under April 3 2024 Agreement.
Constitutional fallback allows PM Fils-Aime to continue as caretaker executive if political
actors fail to reach consensus by February 7 deadline.
Montana Accord hardline rejection of CPT dialogue conflicts with international support
for PM continuation and risks marginalization.
February 02, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Political parties should prioritize immediate transition consensus over perfect
architecture as February 7 deadline leaves no time for prolonged negotiations.
International organizations should pre-position flexibility to work with interim authorities
February 7-forward likely PM Fils-Aime continuation while advocating for rapid
consensus.
CPT members should recognize personal corruption vulnerabilities post-mandate and
negotiate immunity provisions in transition accord rather than attempting mandate
extension.
Civil society actors should focus dialogue on concrete decision-making authority for
February 7-forward government rather than ideological purity on composition.
Electoral timeline should be explicitly conditioned on measurable security benchmarks
rather than aspirational dates detached from 80-90 percent gang territorial control
reality.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3:

No major gang attacks or security incidents were reported in the last 24 hours February
1-2 representing tense calm following the U.S. Embassy January 31 security alert
warning of heavy gunfire and halting all personnel movements. The Embassy alert
followed major Haiti National Police operation in Croix-des-Bouquets targeting the 400
Mawozo gang which killed high-value leaders including Zotolan second-in-command of
Carrefour Marassa gang and Ti Pikan. In retaliation 400 Mawozo launched attack on
Tabarre 27 causing civilian casualties and displacement. On January 30 a Viv Ansanm
coalition attack on Tet Ka Jak in Marigot killed 6-7 people including one child, wounded
four and resulted in houses burned and businesses looted.
February 02, 2026

Armed gangs control an estimated 80-90 percent of Port-au-Prince with the most
authoritative recent sources converging on approximately 90 percent. A February 1
Americas Quarterly analysis characterized this as criminal governance noting gangs do
not just terrorize they govern by taxing residents, settling disputes, controlling access to
markets and deciding who may work, trade or leave. The UN Integrated Office in Haiti
documented 5,915 deaths and 2,708 injuries in 2025 with fourth quarter alone
accounting for 1,523 deaths and 806 injuries. Significantly 62 percent of Q4 casualties
resulted from security force operations including private military contractor drone
strikes, 32 percent from gang violence and 6 percent from self-defense groups.
The PNH announced February 1 nationwide security reinforcement for February 2026
with newly graduated officers to be deployed to Artibonite, Nord, Centre, Nippes and
Sud-Est departments and armored vehicles distributed to previously under-equipped
areas. However Haitian media outlet Vant Bef Info noted skeptically that the PNH has
issued similar announcements before without results while gangs continue to operate
with impunity. The Gang Suppression Force remains severely understrength at
approximately 950-1,000 personnel primarily 700-plus Kenyan police against
authorized ceiling of 5,550. Major elements are expected to arrive summer 2026 at
earliest.
Gender-based violence has surged with Medecins Sans Frontieres reporting January
28 that sexual abuse cases at their Port-au-Prince clinic have tripled in the past four
years as gang violence surges. An average of 27 women and girls experience
gender-based violence daily predominantly rapes including gang rapes. Private military
operations continue with Vectus Global the firm founded by Erik Prince providing drone
and helicopter strike support to Haitian authorities. Between March 1 and December 30
2025 drone strikes resulted in 973 deaths including 934 suspected gang members and
39 residents including 16 children. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
assessed that most of these drone strikes are likely unlawful under international human
rights law.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Gang territorial control of Port-au-Prince has expanded from estimated 60 percent in
early 2024 to current 80-90 percent representing unprecedented criminal governance
in Haitian history.
February 02, 2026



## TALKING POINTS

No major security incidents in last 24 hours following January 31 U.S. Embassy alert
represents tense calm not sustainable security improvement.
Gang territorial control at 80-90 percent of Port-au-Prince with criminal governance
including taxation, dispute resolution and market access control.
PNH February reinforcement announcement follows pattern of unfulfilled promises
while gangs continue operating with impunity according to Haitian media.
Gang Suppression Force severely understrength at 950-1,000 personnel against 5,550
authorized with major elements not expected until summer 2026.
Gender-based violence surging with 27 women and girls experiencing violence daily
predominantly rapes including gang rapes per MSF reporting.
Private military drone strikes killed 973 people in 2025 including 39 residents and 16
children with UN assessing most strikes likely unlawful.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should maintain humanitarian operations firewall from
political negotiations and prepare for continued difficult access conditions through Q2
2026.
Businesses should plan for 12-18 month continuation of current difficult conditions with
security gains requiring sustained GSF deployment not expected before Q3 2026.
Security force coordination should focus on breaking PNH operation and gang
retaliation cycle rather than announcing reinforcements without implementation
capacity.
Humanitarian actors should prioritize gender-based violence response capacity given
surge in sexual violence and MSF reporting of tripled case loads.
Electoral officials should explicitly condition August 2026 timeline on measurable
February 02, 2026

security benchmarks verified by independent monitors rather than aspirational dates.
Political actors considering gang negotiations should recognize rule of law versus
security improvement tradeoff as most consequential transition decision.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

TPS Ruling Release today February 2 determines fate of 350,000 Haitians with pause
providing temporary relief but likely triggering administration appeal while denial
enables ICE enforcement beginning February 3. Political Dialogue Conclusion February
3 final day of Petion-Ville summit monitoring for joint communique announcing agreed
transition framework or acknowledgment of failure to reach consensus. CPT Final
Actions February 3-7 watch for last-minute decisions including director-general
appointments or policy announcements versus complete paralysis with potential for
surprise PM dismissal attempt if anti-Fils-Aime faction regroups.



## THIS WEEK

February 7 Transition Mechanics determine who addresses the nation whether CPT
holds formal dissolution ceremony whether PM Fils-Aime announces caretaker role
continuation and whether Laurent Saint-Cyr remains coordinator pending successor
framework. International Donor Statements February 7-10 will clarify whether U.S.,
Canada and EU recognize post-February 7 government with funding commitments or
withholding pending legitimacy clarification. Post-February 7 Governance Structure
implementation of whatever framework emerges monitoring for formation of new
executive, actual CPT member departures and potential constitutional court ruling on
transition legality.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

February 02, 2026

Gang Suppression Force Deployment Progress with Jack Christofides assuming
Special Representative role mid-February and first April contingent arrivals determining
countries contributing personnel. Security Operations Escalation monitoring PNH
announced February reinforcement plan for actual deployments versus another
unfulfilled promise with gang counter-offensives likely if pressure intensifies. TPS
Legislative Action if court ruling favorable monitoring Senate consideration of legislative
TPS extension while if unfavorable tracking Congressional Black Caucus and
Caribbean-American caucus pressure campaign intensity. Electoral Timeline Viability
August 2026 first round should be considered aspirational pending security verification
by May-June monitoring of territorial control improvements.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Littler, 9th Circuit Finds DHS Overstepped Terminating TPS, January 28 2026
Democracy Now, Temporary Protected Status Haiti, January 30 2026
City of Everett, TPS Termination Statement, February 2 2026
Trading Economics, Haiti Remittances, 2024 data
Flight Global, Sunrise Airways Suspends Port-au-Prince Flights Due to Ongoing Gang
Activity, 2026
Vant Bef Info, Haiti Transition Lancement des Assises de Suivi du Dialogue Politique
Interhaitien, February 1 2026
Le Nouvelliste EN, Seventy Political Parties Support a One Year Transition Excluding
the CPT, November 2025
BINUH, SG Report on the Situation in Haiti, October 14 2025
Reuters, UN Backed Force Haiti Deploy Fully by Summer Amid Political Turmoil,
January 22 2026
X HaitiInfoProj, Montana Accord Statement, January 26 2026
Yahoo, State Department Issues Security Alert Haiti, January 31 2026
Americas Quarterly, Haiti's Political Crisis Deepens Amid a Slide Into Criminal
Governance, February 1 2026
Security Council Report, Haiti Monthly Forecast, January 2026
Euronews, Haiti Faces Sexual Violence and Abuse Crisis as Gang Violence Spreads
MSF Says, January 28 2026
UN Press, Security Council Renews BINUH Mandate Resolution 2814, January 29
2026
February 02, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*