2026-01-26

Post-February 7 governance framework remains unresolved with twelve days until CPT mandate expires and no succession mechanism established. Saint-Cyr-Fils-Aime continuity scenario gains probability through institutional capture of PNH, FAd'H, and Multinational Security Support January 26, 2026 coordination, but lacks constitutional basis creating legitimacy crisis. Gang Suppression Force first contingents arriving April 2026 miss February 7 transition window, leaving security vacuum during critical governance changeover. August 30 first-round election date contingent on security improvements and CPT-PM crisis resolution, with 23 communes under gang control rendering electoral operations impossible without territorial reconquest.