2026-01-26

CPT-PM-PNH January 25 commitment to unblock national roads and reconquer territory signals potential security offensive within final twelve days before February 7 mandate expiration. Road security operations carry high civilian casualty risk replicating January 2026 pattern when PNH killed 50 civilians and displaced 5,800 people without achieving durable territorial control. Cap-Haitien Cluny Market fire destroying 30 warehouses and 100 shops demonstrates gang capacity for strategic economic infrastructure targeting beyond traditional roadblock control. Multinational Security Support mission has only 1,200 of 5,550 authorized personnel deployed with Gang Suppression Force not arriving until April 2026, leaving PNH as primary enforcement instrument. National Route 1, 2, and 3 gang control constrains humanitarian access, economic exchanges, and population movement, making road clearance operationally critical but tactically challenging. Successful road offensive would deliver tangible security win demonstrating Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime executive capacity days before transition, but gang retaliation through infrastructure attacks creates pyrrhic victory risk.