2026-01-14

If frameworks announced January 17 or weekend January 18-19 monitor implementation progress including decree publication stakeholder consultations and legal approvals through January 20-28. If silence extends past January 20 watch for compressed implementation timelines creating heightened operational failure risks. Monitor gang violence resumption indicators for late January January 20-25 if no amnesty framework signals emerge. Track opposition mobilization escalation including MORN sit-ins and Montana Accord campaigns if CPT announces extension rather than February 7 departure. Prepare for institutional vacuum scenarios if February 7 arrives without agreed governance frameworks.