# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-14
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

---

## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: Strategic Mid-Week Pause During Critical Decision Window](#development-1-strategic-mid-week-pause-during-critical-decision-window)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: 35-Day Gang Attack Pause Approaching Strategic Inflection Point](#development-2-35-day-gang-attack-pause-approaching-strategic-inflection-point)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: 24-Day Countdown Creates Compressed Implementation](#development-3-24-day-countdown-creates-compressed-implementation)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

---


## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Haiti entered the 24-day countdown to the February 7 2026 CPT mandate expiration
with no new developments reported on January 14. The mid-week pause during
CARICOM's critical decision window suggests behind-the-scenes negotiations before
anticipated framework announcements later this week. January 17 represents the last
viable day for governance framework releases allowing adequate 21-day
implementation time. The 35-day gang attack pause continues as the longest
sustained period without major gang-initiated violence on record now exceeding five
weeks. With 24 days remaining before February 7 Haiti faces three scenarios:
announcements enabling 21-day implementation, weekend emergency CARICOM
summit, or extended silence creating compressed 14-18 day windows with
heightened operational failure risks.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

No new political security or operational developments reported on January 14 2026
despite Haiti entering 24-day countdown to February 7 CPT mandate expiration.
Mid-week strategic pause during CARICOM critical decision window suggests
behind-the-scenes negotiations before anticipated January 17 or weekend framework
announcements.
35-day gang attack pause continues as longest on record approaching strategic
inflection point where gangs must resume violence or extend pause through February
7.
January 17 is last viable day for governance framework announcements allowing
adequate 21-day implementation time before February 7 deadline.
CARICOM critical decision window halfway complete with no consensus announced
as of evening.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: Strategic Mid-Week Pause During Critical Decision Window

January 14 2026 produced no new political security or operational developments from
comprehensive searches of Haiti Libre Haiti24 Le Nouvelliste AlterPresse Vant Bef
Info and international wire services as of 4:53 PM EST. This mid-week silence during
January 14, 2026

the critical decision window identified by CARICOM on January 12 suggests Haitian
actors and international facilitators are engaged in strategic pause before potential
announcements later this week or weekend. The absence of developments does not
indicate negotiation failure but rather reflects ongoing behind-the-scenes
consultations between CPT members political parties civil society and international
actors before public framework releases.
The timing carries significant operational implications. CARICOM's January 12
warning that actors must demonstrate patriotism and January 9 statement that time is
running out established a critical decision window of January 13-17. The mid-week
silence represents the halfway point of this window with January 17 emerging as the
last viable day for framework announcements. Any governance framework announced
on January 17 would allow exactly 21 days until February 7 for implementation
including decree drafting legal review stakeholder consultations CPT deliberation
publication in Le Moniteur and public communication rollout. Delays beyond January
17 create compressed timelines of 14-18 days with heightened risks of
implementation failure.
Leslie Voltaire's January 10-13 conditional departure statements introduced a 60
percent political class rallying threshold plus international approval as conditions for
CPT departure by February 7. The mid-week silence may indicate political actors are
assessing whether this 60 percent consensus threshold is achievable while
CARICOM OAS and UN determine whether to approve specific frameworks.
Opposition groups including MORN and Montana Accord are simultaneously using
this pause to prepare responses to anticipated CPT announcements and coordinate
alternative proposals with civil society organizations.
The strategic silence also provides the last moment for confidential negotiations
before Haiti enters the final three-week countdown where implementation timelines
become operationally challenging and public panic escalates through media
countdown coverage. If no announcements emerge by January 17 Haiti enters a
compressed final window where 14-20 days prove insufficient for complex governance
transitions creating heightened risks of institutional vacuum multiple competing
legitimacy claims or rushed frameworks vulnerable to legal challenges.
January 14, 2026



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

CARICOM established the Eminent Persons Group in February 2024 to facilitate
Haiti's political transition following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise in
July 2021 and subsequent institutional collapse. The GPE has mediated between
competing political factions to establish the Transitional Presidential Council in April
2024 with a mandate initially set to expire on February 7 2026 under Article 149 of the
1987 Constitution which prohibits mandate extensions beyond specified terms.



## TALKING POINTS

The mid-week pause represents strategic silence for confidential negotiations not
absence of progress on February 7 frameworks.
January 17 is the operational deadline for framework announcements allowing
adequate 21-day implementation time.
The 60 percent political class rallying threshold introduced by Voltaire creates
measurable consensus requirement for CPT departure.
Opposition mobilization during the pause suggests multiple competing frameworks
may emerge simultaneously.
CARICOM's critical decision window closes January 17 requiring either framework
consensus or emergency summit.
Delays beyond January 17 create compressed 14-18 day implementation windows
with heightened operational failure risks.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International stakeholders should establish January 17 as hard deadline for
framework announcements to preserve operational implementation timelines.
CARICOM GPE should prepare contingency protocols for weekend emergency
Heads of Government summit if no consensus emerges by evening.
Political actors should accelerate consultations during January 14-16 to achieve 60
percent consensus threshold before announcements.
Civil society organizations should finalize alternative framework proposals by January
16 to enable competitive releases.
January 14, 2026

Media outlets should emphasize January 17 operational significance in coverage to
pressure timely announcements.
Private sector entities should prepare operational continuity plans for scenarios
including framework consensus by versus extended uncertainty through January
20-25.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: 35-Day Gang Attack Pause Approaching Strategic Inflection Point

The gang attack pause that began December 21 2025 extended through January 14
2026 marking 35 consecutive days without major gang-initiated violence in
Port-au-Prince. This represents the longest sustained period without gang attacks on
record demonstrating unprecedented strategic discipline and consolidated territorial
control that contradicts government and GSF claims of retaking territories. The pause
now exceeds five weeks creating a critical strategic inflection point where gangs must
either resume violence in late January to pressure February 7 amnesty negotiations
or extend the pause through February 7 as demonstration of good faith if amnesty
framework emerges.
The Crisis Group's December 15 warning that gangs seek amnesty as part of the
February 7 transition has become the only viable explanation for the 35-day pause.
Gangs are demonstrating capacity to suspend violence indefinitely while maintaining
territorial control rather than responding to government security operations. This
strategic sophistication indicates gang leadership understands the February 7
constitutional deadline and is positioning for negotiations despite PM Fils-Aime's
December 28 no negotiations doctrine and Andrésol's January 12 promise to reopen
routes by force. The pause allows gangs to expand Artibonite and Plateau Central
territorial control including 1120 displaced from Montrouis on December 23 without
provoking Port-au-Prince counteroffensives.
January 14, 2026

However PNH operations during the pause have produced mixed results. The January
6 Bel Air clashes between PNH and armed groups led MSF to suspend operations on
January 11 due to civilian casualties. The January 9 Varreux port closure for police
operations against gangs and January 12 PNH press conference announcing seizure
of 33 weapons and 12000 plus munitions demonstrate ongoing government
counteroffensives. Despite these operations National Route No 1 remains impassable
at Montrouis since January 6 and Gonaives Deschaos area remains paralyzed since
January 8 proving PNH operations are not achieving sustainable territorial control.
The 35-day gang attack pause reflects gang strategic restraint not PNH or GSF
operational success.
With 24 days until February 7 the 35-day pause approaches its strategic limit. Gang
fighters cannot remain inactive indefinitely without discipline eroding or territorial
control being contested by rival groups. If the government maintains its no
negotiations stance and attempts to reopen routes by force as Andrésol promised for
before February 7 gangs will likely resume Port-au-Prince violence in late January
between January 20-25 to pressure amnesty discussions. Conversely if amnesty
framework signals emerge from current negotiations gangs may extend the pause
through February 7 demonstrating capacity for political participation. The next seven
to ten days will determine whether the pause represents prelude to negotiated
settlement or temporary operational restraint before violence escalation.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Port-au-Prince has experienced cyclical gang violence since 2018 with major
escalations in February 2024 following international intervention discussions and
November 2024 during airport attacks. Previous gang operational pauses rarely
exceeded 10-14 days making the current 35-day pause unprecedented in duration
and geographic scope across metropolitan Port-au-Prince.



## TALKING POINTS

35-day gang attack pause is longest sustained period without major gang-initiated
January 14, 2026

violence on record.
The pause demonstrates gang strategic discipline and consolidated territorial control
not government operational success.
Crisis Group December 15 warning about gang amnesty negotiations is only viable
explanation for 35-day pause duration.
PNH operations during pause have not achieved sustainable territorial control as
National Route 1 remains impassable.
Gangs face strategic inflection point requiring either violence resumption in late
January or pause extension through February 7.
Expected gang decision timeline is January 20-25 based on operational momentum
requirements and February 7 negotiation pressures.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Government should signal willingness to include gang representatives in February 7
transition discussions to extend pause through deadline.
International stakeholders should facilitate discrete gang amnesty framework
consultations during January 15-20 window.
PNH should suspend operations that produce civilian casualties during pause to
preserve humanitarian access and avoid triggering violence resumption.
Humanitarian organizations should expand Port-au-Prince operations during pause
window recognizing late January resumption risk.
Private sector should accelerate supply chain operations during pause recognizing
possible late January violence escalation.
Monitoring systems should establish daily gang activity tracking for January 20-25 to
detect violence resumption indicators.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: 24-Day Countdown Creates Compressed Implementation

January 14, 2026

Timeline
January 14 2026 marked exactly 24 days until the February 7 2026 CPT mandate
expiration under Article 149 of the 1987 Constitution. This compressed timeline
creates significant operational challenges for implementing complex governance
transitions requiring decree drafting legal review stakeholder consultations CPT
deliberation publication in Le Moniteur and public communication rollout. Minimum
implementation requirements total 14-22 days from announcement to full
implementation meaning January 17 represents the last viable day for framework
announcements allowing adequate 21-day implementation windows.
The operational mathematics are stark. Framework announcements on January 17
provide exactly 21 days until February 7 creating tight but feasible implementation
timelines. Announcements delayed until January 20 compress implementation to 18
days creating high risk of procedural failures. Announcements after January 25
provide only 13 days proving operationally insufficient for legal processes stakeholder
approvals and institutional coordination. CARICOM's January 12 warning about
slowness of actors and January 13 deep concern statement indicate international
facilitators recognize these operational constraints as non-negotiable deadlines that
cannot be extended through further negotiations.
Three implementation scenarios emerge from the 24-day countdown timeline.
Scenario One involves framework announcements on January 17 or weekend
January 18-19 allowing 20-21 day implementation windows with adequate time for
legal processes and stakeholder consultations. Scenario Two involves extended
silence through January 20 creating 18-day compressed windows with heightened
implementation failure risks including incomplete consultations rushed legal reviews
or competing framework claims. Scenario Three involves silence extending past
January 25 creating 13-day windows that are operationally insufficient leading to
institutional vacuum on February 7 with no agreed framework multiple competing
legitimacy claims and government operations cessation.
January 14, 2026

The compressed timeline also affects public perception and opposition
mobilization. Media countdown coverage will intensify after January 17 if no
frameworks emerge creating basculement panic narratives. Opposition groups
including MORN and Montana Accord will escalate mobilization campaigns if
CPT announces mandate extension rather than departure. Civil society
organizations are preparing protests and sit-ins for late January if governance
frameworks fail to materialize. The 24-day countdown therefore functions as
hard deadline for both operational implementation requirements and public
confidence thresholds with delays beyond January 17 risking cascading
institutional political and social crises.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Article 149 of Haiti's 1987 Constitution prohibits mandate extensions for presidents
and legislators beyond constitutionally specified terms creating strict February 7 2026
deadline for CPT departure. Previous attempts to extend institutional mandates
including President Jovenel Moise's 2021 referendum proposal generated significant
constitutional controversy and opposition mobilization establishing precedent against
mandate extensions.



## TALKING POINTS

24 days until February 7 2026 creates minimum 14-22 day implementation
requirements for governance frameworks.
January 17 is last viable day for announcements allowing adequate 21-day
implementation timelines.
Delays beyond January 17 create compressed 14-18 day windows with heightened
operational failure risks.
Three implementation scenarios exist: announcements enabling 21-day windows,
weekend emergency summit, or extended silence creating institutional vacuum.
Media countdown coverage will intensify after January 17 creating basculement panic
narratives if no frameworks emerge.
January 14, 2026

Opposition mobilization will escalate in late January if CPT announces extension
rather than departure by February 7.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

All stakeholders should treat January 17 as operational hard deadline for framework
announcements.
CPT should finalize internal consensus positions by January 16 enabling public
announcements.
CARICOM should prepare emergency Heads of Government summit protocols for
weekend January 18-19 if deadline passes without consensus.
Legal advisors should accelerate decree drafting processes during January 14-16 to
enable immediate publication after framework announcements.
Communication teams should prepare comprehensive public rollout materials by
evening for framework releases.
Contingency planners should develop institutional continuity protocols for scenarios
where February 7 arrives without agreed frameworks.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Monitor for CPT internal meetings or political party consultations on January 15-16
indicating final consensus building before anticipated January 17 framework
announcements. Watch for CARICOM GPE communications or diplomatic activity
suggesting facilitation of -negotiations. Track civil society and opposition group
statements indicating preparation for competitive framework releases or responses to
anticipated CPT announcements.
January 14, 2026



## THIS WEEK

January 17 is critical deadline for governance framework announcements allowing
adequate 21-day implementation timelines before February 7. If no frameworks
emerge by evening monitor for emergency CARICOM Heads of Government summit
announcements for weekend January 18-19. Track gang operational indicators in
Port-au-Prince for violence resumption signals if government maintains no
negotiations doctrine through week end. Monitor National Route 1 status for
Andrésol's promised reopening operations and potential gang responses.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

If frameworks announced January 17 or weekend January 18-19 monitor
implementation progress including decree publication stakeholder consultations and
legal approvals through January 20-28. If silence extends past January 20 watch for
compressed implementation timelines creating heightened operational failure risks.
Monitor gang violence resumption indicators for late January January 20-25 if no
amnesty framework signals emerge. Track opposition mobilization escalation including
MORN sit-ins and Montana Accord campaigns if CPT announces extension rather
than February 7 departure. Prepare for institutional vacuum scenarios if February 7
arrives without agreed governance frameworks.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre daily monitoring January 14 2026
Le Nouvelliste daily monitoring January 14 2026
Reuters Haiti coverage January 14 2026
CARICOM Eminent Persons Group statement January 12 2026
Leslie Voltaire statements January 10-13 2026
Crisis Group December 15 2025 warning
PM Garry Conille Fils-Aime December 28 2025 statement
Police Nationale d'Haiti January 12 2026 press conference
Medecins Sans Frontieres January 11 2026 statement
Police Nationale d'Haiti January 9 2026 operations report
ACLED December 2025 data
CARICOM statement January 9 2026
January 14, 2026



---

*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*