2026-01-14

35-day gang attack pause is longest sustained period without major gang-initiated January 14, 2026 violence on record. The pause demonstrates gang strategic discipline and consolidated territorial control not government operational success. Crisis Group December 15 warning about gang amnesty negotiations is only viable explanation for 35-day pause duration. PNH operations during pause have not achieved sustainable territorial control as National Route 1 remains impassable. Gangs face strategic inflection point requiring either violence resumption in late January or pause extension through February 7. Expected gang decision timeline is January 20-25 based on operational momentum requirements and February 7 negotiation pressures.