2026-01-10

Will gangs resume Port-au-Prince violence between January 15-25 if government maintains no negotiations doctrine and announces CPT extension without amnesty engagement. Monitor for federal court TPS ruling before February 3 expiration and BINUH mandate expiration January 31 requiring Security Council action. February 7 represents convergence point where CPT mandate TPS expiration timeline and gang strategic deadline intersect creating either coordinated transition framework or institutional vacuum with violence escalation.