2026-01-10

28-day Port-au-Prince pause December 21 through January 10 is longest sustained period on record. Gangs control 80-90 percent of Port-au-Prince demonstrating capacity for extended operational discipline. Crisis Group December 15 assessment confirms gangs seek amnesty as part of February 7 transition. Strategic deadline approaching around late January if no amnesty framework emerges. Gang response to January 12-17 announcement week will signal whether February 7 will be smooth or chaotic. Violence resumption likely January 15-25 if government maintains no negotiations January 10, 2026 doctrine.