2026-01-10

Security forces should prepare contingency plans for potential violence resumption between January 15-25. Government should assess strategic costs of maintaining no negotiations doctrine versus controlled amnesty framework. International partners should develop gang negotiation frameworks for post-February 7 governance scenarios. Humanitarian actors should pre-position supplies for potential displacement if violence resumes. BINUH should establish communication channels with gang leadership to assess pause sustainability. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting.