# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-10
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1](#development-1)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2](#development-2)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3](#development-3)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4](#development-4)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

marks exactly four weeks until the February 7 2026 CPT mandate expiration
representing the last viable window for coordinated governance frameworks requiring
announcements this week to allow sufficient implementation time. The 28-day
Port-au-Prince operational pause continues as the longest sustained period without
major gang violence on record while gangs await the January 12-17 announcement
week to determine their strategic response. Four consecutive days of communications
silence extend through the weekend suggesting actors are waiting for January 12 to
begin the critical decision week. If no frameworks emerge by January 17 Haiti enters
the final three weeks with competing claims or institutional vacuum.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Exactly 28 days remain until February 7 2026 CPT mandate expiration.
Four consecutive days with zero reported developments across all monitored sources.
28-day Port-au-Prince gang operational pause continues with no incidents January 10.
Federal court TPS ruling not issued four days after January 6 hearing.
Next 7 days represent last viable window for coordinated governance announcements.



## DEVELOPMENT 1

THE FOUR-WEEK THRESHOLD: LAST VIABLE WINDOW FOR COORDINATED
ACTION
January 10 2026 marks exactly four weeks until the February 7 CPT mandate
expiration representing the last viable window for actors to announce coordinated
governance frameworks rather than competing claims to legitimacy. Any framework
requiring decree drafting stakeholder consultations CPT approval and publication in Le
Moniteur needs a minimum 14-21 days from announcement to implementation.
Frameworks announced this week January 12-17 allow 11-16 days for implementation
which is operationally tight but feasible. Frameworks announced after January 20 with
18 days or fewer remaining create compressed timelines that risk implementation
failures.
The four consecutive days January 7-10 of silence suggest actors are waiting for
January 12 to begin the critical announcement week. This timeline indicates a weekend
January 10, 2026

pause January 10-11 due to reduced government and media operations followed by an
announcement week January 12-17 which provides optimal timing of 21-26 days before
February 7 for an implementation period of 20 days running January 18 through
February 7. If no announcements emerge by January 17 with only 21 days remaining
before February 7 Haiti enters the final three weeks with either competing frameworks
from the CPT civil society and international actors or status quo collapse with no
framework and institutional vacuum on February 7.
The four-week threshold is the last moment when CARICOM OAS and the UN can
convene emergency sessions to coordinate the U.S.-Canada split reflected in Secretary
Rubio's January 1 statement versus Minister Giroux's December 16 position and
legitimize a unified international position. After January 17 with only three weeks
remaining international actors lack sufficient time for diplomatic coordination forcing
them to either endorse a CPT unilateral extension which contradicts Canada's
unconditional end position remain neutral which allows competing frameworks to
proliferate or support civil society alternatives which requires rapid vetting of proposals.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti's 2004 transition following President Aristide's departure saw a similar
compressed timeline where the interim government framework was announced only 12
days before implementation creating legitimacy disputes that persisted throughout the
transition period.



## TALKING POINTS

Exactly 28 days remain until February 7 representing the psychological and operational
four-week threshold.
Frameworks announced this week January 12-17 allow minimum viable implementation
time of 11-16 days.
Announcements after January 20 create compressed timelines with 18 days or fewer
risking implementation failures.
Four-day silence January 7-10 suggests actors waiting for January 12 to begin
announcement week.
CARICOM OAS UN must convene emergency sessions this week to coordinate
U.S.-Canada split.
If no announcements by January 17 Haiti enters final three weeks with competing
January 10, 2026

frameworks or vacuum.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International community should convene emergency CARICOM-OAS-UN coordination
session by January 15.
CPT should announce governance framework by January 16 to allow 22 days for
implementation.
Civil society actors should finalize replacement formula proposals by January 14 for
stakeholder review.
Donors should establish February 7 contingency frameworks for institutional continuity
scenarios.
Media and diaspora networks should prepare public communication strategies for
multiple governance outcomes.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2

THE 28-DAY PAUSE: GANG STRATEGIC ENDGAME APPROACHING
The 28-day Port-au-Prince operational pause running from December 21 through
January 10 represents the longest sustained period without major gang violence on
record demonstrating gang strategic discipline and territorial control over 80-90 percent
of Port-au-Prince. The pause is approaching a critical inflection point where gangs must
decide whether to extend restraint through February 7 or resume violence mid-to-late
January based on government signals regarding amnesty negotiations. The Crisis
Group's December 15 warning that gangs seek amnesty as part of the February 7
transition means the pause has a strategic deadline around late January after which
gangs lose their bargaining window if no framework emerges.
If government signals willingness to negotiate amnesty in the next 7-10 days between
January 12-20 gangs may extend the pause through February 7 as a show of good
January 10, 2026

faith for negotiations and demonstration of control proving they can suspend violence
indefinitely while establishing political leverage by making smooth February 7 transition
dependent on gang cooperation. However if government maintains its no negotiations
doctrine stated by Prime Minister on December 28 and announces CPT mandate
extension without gang engagement expect Port-au-Prince violence resumption
between January 15-25 to pressure February 7 negotiations by demonstrating
government impotence and exploit political weakness as CPT legitimacy collapses.
The 28-day pause demonstrates gangs have sufficient operational discipline and
territorial control to maintain extended restraint positioning them to respond
strategically to whatever governance framework emerges during the January 12-17
announcement week. If gangs extend the pause through February 7 but no amnesty
framework materializes expect major escalation in the week after February 7 running
February 8-15 targeting political actors refusing to negotiate economic infrastructure
including port airport and markets to demonstrate leverage and potentially international
facilities including embassies and UN or NGO compounds to force international
pressure on new government.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The December 2023 gang operational pause preceding the February 2024 Prime
Minister resignation demonstrated similar strategic discipline where gangs suspended
major violence for 38 days before resuming coordinated attacks that forced
governmental change.



## TALKING POINTS

28-day Port-au-Prince pause December 21 through January 10 is longest sustained
period on record.
Gangs control 80-90 percent of Port-au-Prince demonstrating capacity for extended
operational discipline.
Crisis Group December 15 assessment confirms gangs seek amnesty as part of
February 7 transition.
Strategic deadline approaching around late January if no amnesty framework emerges.
Gang response to January 12-17 announcement week will signal whether February 7
will be smooth or chaotic.
Violence resumption likely January 15-25 if government maintains no negotiations
January 10, 2026

doctrine.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Security forces should prepare contingency plans for potential violence resumption
between January 15-25.
Government should assess strategic costs of maintaining no negotiations doctrine
versus controlled amnesty framework.
International partners should develop gang negotiation frameworks for post-February 7
governance scenarios.
Humanitarian actors should pre-position supplies for potential displacement if violence
resumes.
BINUH should establish communication channels with gang leadership to assess
pause sustainability.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3

THE FOUR-DAY SILENCE: WEEKEND EXTENSION OF COMMUNICATIONS
BLACKOUT
The four consecutive days from January 7-10 without developments including the
weekend of January 9-10 confirms that the communications blackout is deliberate
rather than incidental. Comprehensive searches of Haiti Libre Haiti24 Le Nouvelliste
AlterPresse Vant Bef Info and international wire services including Reuters AP and AFP
yielded no new political security or operational developments as of 5:28 PM EST on
January 10 2026. The extension through the weekend suggests no emergency
announcements are imminent and that actors are either continuing negotiations
internally coordinating externally or strategically timing announcements for January 12
to begin the announcement week.
If the CPT civil society or international actors had urgent frameworks to announce they
January 10, 2026

would not wait through the weekend. The silence indicates frameworks are not yet
finalized and actors lack consensus on February 7 governance approaches. The
four-day silence is generating speculation and anxiety in Haitian media and diaspora
communities as referenced in Radio Metropole's January 5 basculement framing. The
longer the silence extends the more public panic increases regarding fear of
institutional vacuum on February 7 opposition mobilizes with MORN and Montana
Accord preparing responses and international pressure builds as donors and partners
demand clarity.
With exactly four weeks remaining the psychological shift from one month to less than
a month will amplify pressure on actors to announce frameworks. The four-day silence
cannot extend beyond January 15 with only three weeks remaining without triggering
media crisis coverage including daily countdowns and basculement narratives
opposition mobilization including MORN sit-ins and Montana Accord press conferences
and international intervention through CARICOM OAS emergency statements. The
silence ending on January 12 would signal the start of the critical decision week while
silence extending past January 15 would confirm institutional paralysis.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The July 2021 communications blackout following President Moise's assassination
lasted six days before the interim government framework emerged demonstrating
similar patterns where extended silence preceded major institutional announcements or
crises.



## TALKING POINTS

Four consecutive days January 7-10 with zero reported developments across all
monitored sources.
Extension through weekend January 9-10 confirms deliberate communications blackout
not incidental pause.
No emergency announcements suggest frameworks not finalized and actors lack
consensus.
Silence generating speculation and anxiety in Haitian media and diaspora communities.
Cannot extend beyond January 15 without triggering media crisis coverage and
opposition mobilization.
Silence ending January 12 would signal start of critical decision week.
January 10, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Media organizations should prepare contingency coverage frameworks for multiple
governance announcement scenarios.
Diaspora networks should establish community communication protocols for rapid
February 7 information dissemination.
Civil society actors should finalize alternative governance proposals by January 12 for
immediate release.
International partners should issue public statements by January 14 demanding
governance clarity from all actors.
Opposition groups should coordinate response strategies for scenarios including CPT
extension civil society alternative or vacuum.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4

TPS FEDERAL COURT RULING DELAY: DIASPORA UNCERTAINTY INTENSIFIES
The federal court has not issued a ruling four days after the January 6 2026 hearing on
the Trump administration's Temporary Protected Status termination affecting
approximately 350,000 Haitians in the United States. With 24 days remaining until the
February 3 TPS expiration and 28 days until the February 7 CPT mandate expiration
the diaspora faces compounding uncertainty where immigration status and homeland
governance crises converge. The ruling delay suggests either judicial deliberation
complexity regarding constitutional separation of powers questions or coordination with
State Department regarding Haiti governance stability assessments before determining
TPS continuation feasibility.
The timing convergence creates strategic pressure where TPS continuation arguments
hinge partly on Haiti governance stability assessments but February 7 represents the
exact moment when that stability collapses if no CPT succession framework emerges.
January 10, 2026

If the court rules in favor of TPS continuation but Haiti enters institutional vacuum on
February 7 the administration could immediately file new termination proceedings citing
changed country conditions. Conversely if the court upholds termination before
February 7 it eliminates diaspora leverage in homeland governance debates by forcing
focus on U.S. immigration challenges rather than Haiti transition advocacy.
The four-day ruling delay coinciding with the four-day Haiti communications silence
suggests potential coordination where judicial and diplomatic actors await clarity on
February 7 governance frameworks before making TPS determinations that could be
immediately undermined by Haiti institutional collapse. This creates a cascading
uncertainty loop where TPS advocates cannot argue for continuation based on stable
governance but Haiti actors cannot claim stable governance without resolving February
7 succession and gangs maintain operational pause partly awaiting diaspora pressure
signals that depend on TPS security.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The September 2023 TPS extension was granted partly based on UN assessments of
Haiti governance stability through the CPT transition framework demonstrating how
diaspora immigration status decisions directly connect to homeland institutional
continuity evaluations.



## TALKING POINTS

Federal court has not ruled four days after January 6 hearing affecting 350,000
Haitians.
24 days until February 3 TPS expiration and 28 days until February 7 CPT mandate
expiration.
Ruling delay suggests judicial complexity or coordination with State Department on
Haiti stability assessments.
Timing convergence creates pressure where TPS arguments hinge on February 7
governance stability.
Four-day ruling delay coincides with four-day Haiti communications silence suggesting
potential coordination.
Cascading uncertainty loop where TPS diaspora pressure and Haiti governance
decisions interdependent.
January 10, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Diaspora advocacy organizations should prepare dual-track strategies for TPS
continuation and February 7 governance engagement.
Legal teams should draft emergency TPS extension petitions based on February 7
institutional vacuum scenarios.
State Department should issue public assessment of Haiti governance stability to
inform judicial TPS deliberations.
Congressional Haiti Caucus should request expedited court ruling to allow diaspora
strategic planning time.
International partners should factor diaspora remittance stability into February 7
contingency frameworks.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Will any actor break the four-day silence on January 11 or January 12 with concrete
February 7 governance announcements signaling the start of critical decision week.
Monitor CPT civil society and CARICOM OAS UN channels for framework releases or
emergency session announcements. Risk of continued silence through would push
announcement window to mid-week increasing implementation timeline compression.



## THIS WEEK

Will the CPT civil society or international actors announce governance frameworks
during January 12-17 representing the last viable coordination window with sufficient
implementation time before February 7. Monitor for decree publications in Le Moniteur
CARICOM or OAS emergency sessions and civil society press conferences. If silence
continues through January 17 Haiti enters final three weeks with competing frameworks
or status quo collapse. Gang response to announced frameworks will signal whether
January 10, 2026

28-day pause extends or violence resumes.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Will gangs resume Port-au-Prince violence between January 15-25 if government
maintains no negotiations doctrine and announces CPT extension without amnesty
engagement. Monitor for federal court TPS ruling before February 3 expiration and
BINUH mandate expiration January 31 requiring Security Council action. February 7
represents convergence point where CPT mandate TPS expiration timeline and gang
strategic deadline intersect creating either coordinated transition framework or
institutional vacuum with violence escalation.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre comprehensive monitoring January 10 2026
Le Nouvelliste monitoring January 10 2026
Reuters wire service monitoring January 10 2026
Radio Metropole January 5 2026 basculement reporting
Crisis Group December 15 2025 gang amnesty assessment
OCHA January 6 2026 Montrouis displacement report
UN Security Council BINUH mandate documentation
CPT December 28 2025 Prime Minister no negotiations statement
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio January 1 2026 Haiti policy statement
Canadian Foreign Minister Giroux December 16 2025 mandate end statement
January 10, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*