2026-01-07

Late January announcement concentration - Prepare for compressed January 20-31 window when CPT, civil society, international actors, and potentially gangs will announce positions as February 7 deadline eliminates further delay options. Cascading crisis convergence - Monitor for interactions between TPS deportations beginning February 3, potential gang violence resumption in late January, and February 7 institutional transition that could create simultaneous governance, security, and diaspora emergencies. Post-February 7 legitimacy contests - Assess scenarios where multiple actors claim governing authority after February 7 including CPT mandate extension advocates, civil society replacement formula proponents, or opposition group alternative frameworks.