2026-01-07

International Community: Privately communicate to CPT that gang violence resumption in late January will complicate February 7 transition, encouraging consideration of security-transition coordination mechanisms. January 07, 2026 Private Sector: Prepare for two security scenarios - continued pause if amnesty negotiations emerge, or violence escalation if CPT announces mandate extension with no-negotiations doctrine. Political Actors: Opposition groups should avoid premature denouncement of potential amnesty discussions to prevent triggering gang violence resumption before February 7. Security Forces: GSF and PNH should position resources for potential late January violence resumption in Port-au-Prince while maintaining Artibonite presence. Humanitarian Organizations: Pre-position displacement response capacity for potential late January violence escalation in Port-au-Prince and continued Artibonite attacks. CONFIDENCE High confidence based on official institutional reporting.