2025-12-28

MESSAGING WITHOUT ADDRESSING CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLINE Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness pointed to free movement and Haiti progress as key achievements in his final address as CARICOM Chair on December 28 representing the first high-level regional statement on Haiti since the Provisional Electoral Council revised electoral calendar created a 365-day constitutional gap on December 25. The reference to Haiti progress is diplomatically vague and fails to address concrete developments including gang control of 80 percent of Port-au-Prince the CPT-CEP institutional conflict over unauthorized Electoral Decree amendments the four corruption and overreach allegations against CPT members emerging within 72 hours or the approaching February 7, 2026 mandate expiration now 41 days away. CARICOM silence on the mandate extension question is now untenable as the regional body that December 28, 2025 brokered the April 3, 2024 political agreement establishing the CPT must either legitimize a CPT extension negotiate a new transitional framework or allow February 7 expiration creating constitutional crisis. The December 29 MORN sit-in will test whether CARICOM can continue its wait-and-see posture or must convene an emergency session in early January to address the constitutional deadline. If CARICOM legitimizes a CPT extension it faces the political difficulty of endorsing a body accused of corruption unauthorized institutional amendments High Court prosecution shields and embezzlement within the past 72 hours. If CARICOM negotiates a new transitional framework it requires Haitian stakeholder buy-in from MORN and allied organizations that rejected the CPT and demanded adoption of Accord 40 signed by 179 parties and organizations as an alternative governance mechanism. If CARICOM allows February 7 expiration without intervention it risks being blamed for institutional collapse and the potential security vacuum that gangs could exploit to expand territorial control beyond the current 80 percent of Port-au-Prince. The Holness Haiti progress statement may reflect CARICOM hope that the revised electoral calendar provides political cover for CPT mandate extension by establishing a technical justification that elections cannot be organized before the constitutional deadline. However this interpretation ignores the fact that the 365-day gap between February 7, 2026 and February 7, 2027 was created by CEP decisions that the CPT allegedly interfered with through unauthorized amendments according to the December 25 CEP accusation. CARICOM credibility as a regional mediator depends on its willingness to convene stakeholders in January to negotiate either a legitimate mandate extension framework with concrete electoral milestones and anti-corruption safeguards or a new transitional mechanism that addresses civil society demands for CPT resignation. The December 28 Holness statement suggests CARICOM is avoiding this reckoning but the December 29 MORN mobilization and subsequent January protests will force the regional body to take a public position on the constitutional deadline with 35 to 40 days remaining.