# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-28
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

---

## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: US ARMORED VEHICLE DONATION POSITIONS PNH AHEAD OF](#development-1-us-armored-vehicle-donation-positions-pnh-ahead-of)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: CPT FACES FOUR INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES WITHIN 72 HOURS](#development-2-cpt-faces-four-institutional-challenges-within-72-hours)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: CARICOM CHAIR HOLNESS OFFERS VAGUE HAITI PROGRESS](#development-3-caricom-chair-holness-offers-vague-haiti-progress)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: NINETEEN HAITIAN MIGRANTS INTERCEPTED AT CANADA BORDER](#development-4-nineteen-haitian-migrants-intercepted-at-canada-border)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

---


## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The United States donated 25 armored vehicles to the Haitian National Police on December 27,
announced one day before the Movement for Reconstruction and National Reconciliation sit-in
demanding Transitional Presidential Council resignation scheduled for December 29 in
Petion-Ville. The CPT faces four institutional challenges within 72 hours including accusations of
unauthorized electoral amendments, departure bonus schemes, using High Court decrees for
prosecution immunity, and embezzlement allegations against CPT President Leslie Voltaire
totaling 750 million gourdes. Jamaican Prime Minister Holness referenced Haiti progress in his
final CARICOM Chair address but provided no substantive framework for addressing the February
7, 2026 constitutional mandate expiration now 41 days away. Nineteen Haitian migrants were
intercepted at the Canada border during Christmas Eve highlighting persistent migration
pressures.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

US donated 25 armored vehicles to PNH on December 27 ahead of December 29 MORN sit-in
demanding CPT resignation
CPT faces four corruption and institutional overreach allegations within 72 hours from CEP
RNDDH Samuel Madistin and Roody Sanon
CARICOM Chair Holness cited Haiti progress but offered no mandate extension framework with
41 days until February 7, 2026 expiration
Nineteen Haitian migrants intercepted at Canada border December 24 during intense cold wave
conditions
December 28 marked zero new security incidents continuing pattern of operational pauses on
weekends and holidays



## DEVELOPMENT 1: US ARMORED VEHICLE DONATION POSITIONS PNH AHEAD OF

DECEMBER 29 POLITICAL MOBILIZATION
The United States government donated 25 new armored troop transport vehicles to the Haitian
National Police during a ceremony held December 27 in Tabarre with the announcement made
public December 28 exactly one day before the Movement for Reconstruction and National
Reconciliation scheduled sit-in in Petion-Ville demanding Transitional Presidential Council
resignation. Acting PNH Commander Vladimir Paraison received the vehicles which Haiti Libre
described as enabling more effective response to security challenges in high-risk areas and
significantly increasing mobility and protection of intervention units in theaters of operation
facilitating more balanced tactical and operational deployment across the country. The timing of
this donation represents strategic US signaling that Washington is reinforcing PNH capacity to
maintain order during political mobilization while the CPT mandate expires in 41 days on February
December 28, 2025

7, 2026. The vehicles address mobility and protection deficiencies but do not resolve the PNH
core personnel constraint with only approximately 9,000 police for 11 million people and more
than 30 officers killed in 2025 according to Carnegie reporting from December 16.
The donation follows the PNH asymmetric drone warfare strike on December 24 at Minoterie
killing dozens of gang members and the foiled December 25-26 Tabarre market arson attack
representing gang shift to economic terrorism targeting commercial infrastructure. The 25
armored vehicles position the PNH to maintain presence during tomorrow's MORN sit-in without
exposing personnel to small arms fire or improvised explosive device threats that gangs have
demonstrated capacity to deploy. However the vehicles require trained crews fuel maintenance
and operational coordination which the understaffed PNH may struggle to sustain beyond initial
deployment. The strategic calculation appears to be that US intelligence anticipated the
December 29 mobilization and positioned the donation to deter gang exploitation of political
unrest enable PNH crowd control if the sit-in escalates and signal continued US support for the
CPT-led transition despite mounting corruption allegations emerging this week.
The real test comes December 29 when the PNH must decide whether to allow the MORN sit-in
to proceed peacefully or disperse protesters risking escalation into broader political crisis. If the
PNH uses heavy-handed tactics or deploys the new armored vehicles for crowd control it
validates MORN allegations that the CPT governs through force rather than legitimacy. If the PNH
allows the sit-in to proceed it demonstrates tolerance for dissent but risks emboldening opposition
groups to organize larger mobilizations in January as the February 7 deadline approaches. The
US donation creates tactical options for the PNH but cannot resolve the underlying political
legitimacy crisis that drives MORN and allied organizations to demand CPT resignation with 40
days remaining on the constitutional mandate.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The United States has provided security assistance to Haiti including armored vehicles training
and intelligence support throughout the post-2004 transition period with donations typically timed
to bolster PNH capacity during periods of political instability or gang territorial expansion.



## TALKING POINTS

US donated 25 armored vehicles to PNH December 27 announced one day before MORN sit-in
scheduled for December 29 in Petion-Ville
Vehicles address PNH mobility and protection but do not resolve core personnel constraint of
approximately 9,000 officers for 11 million people
Donation signals US support for CPT transition despite corruption allegations but creates tactical
dilemma for PNH crowd control approach
December 28, 2025

December 29 sit-in will test whether PNH allows peaceful protest or uses force risking escalation
with 41 days until February 7 mandate expiration
Timing suggests US intelligence anticipated political mobilization and positioned donation to deter
gang exploitation of unrest



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International stakeholders should monitor PNH deployment of armored vehicles during December
29 sit-in for indicators of crowd control strategy and escalation risk
Private sector should assess whether US donation signals confidence in CPT or hedging
against post-February 7 security deterioration requiring enhanced protection
Political actors should evaluate whether to participate in December 29 mobilization or distance
from MORN demands based on PNH response
Diaspora should prepare contingency plans for family communications if December 29 sit-in
escalates into broader unrest requiring shelter-in-place protocols
Humanitarian organizations should position mobile response teams near Petion-Ville on
December 29 in case of casualties requiring emergency medical intervention
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: CPT FACES FOUR INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGES WITHIN 72 HOURS

DELEGITIMIZING MANDATE EXTENSION
The Transitional Presidential Council now confronts four simultaneous institutional challenges
emerging between December 26 and December 28 that collectively undermine any political
legitimacy for mandate extension beyond the February 7, 2026 constitutional expiration. The
Provisional Electoral Council accused the CPT on December 25 of making two unauthorized
amendments to the Electoral Decree creating legal uncertainty about electoral processes and
institutional authority. The National Network for the Defense of Human Rights alleged on
December 26 that CPT members are proposing departure bonuses ranging from 500,000 to
600,000 US dollars per member representing potential embezzlement of public funds ahead of
mandate expiration. Human rights lawyer Samuel Madistin coordinator of Fondasyon Je Klere
charged on December 28 that the CPT decree establishing the High Court of Justice represents a
political maneuver to shield current leaders from legal prosecution after they leave office. Radio
December 28, 2025

host Roody Sanon alleged on December 28 that CPT President Leslie Voltaire demanded 750
million gourdes approximately 5.7 million US dollars for a Champ de Mars perimeter security
project without ensuring execution.
These four allegations span corruption institutional overreach self-protection and embezzlement
creating a comprehensive indictment of CPT governance that makes any mandate extension
politically toxic domestically and internationally. The CEP accusation of unauthorized amendments
directly challenges CPT authority to modify electoral frameworks unilaterally while the revised
December 25 electoral calendar creates a 365-day constitutional gap between the February 7,
2026 mandate expiration and the February 7, 2027 presidential inauguration date. The RNDDH
departure bonus allegation suggests CPT members are prioritizing personal financial enrichment
over institutional transition planning with 41 days remaining on their mandate. The Madistin High
Court allegation indicates the CPT is attempting to pre-emptively shield itself from post-mandate
prosecution for potential crimes committed during the transition period. The Sanon Champ de
Mars allegation targets CPT President Leslie Voltaire directly linking corruption to the highest level
of transitional authority.
The convergence of these allegations within 72 hours is not coincidental but represents
coordinated pressure from civil society organizations human rights groups and political opposition
to delegitimize any CPT mandate extension beyond February 7. The Movement for
Reconstruction and National Reconciliation capitalized on this moment by scheduling its
December 29 sit-in exactly 40 days before mandate expiration forcing the CPT to either announce
a mandate extension framework now politically toxic given corruption allegations or negotiate a
new transitional mechanism with CARICOM requiring international legitimacy the CPT lacks or
expire on February 7 without a successor creating constitutional crisis. Each of the four
allegations will be weaponized during the December 29 mobilization and subsequent January
protests as evidence that the CPT has lost moral authority to govern Haiti during democratic
transition.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The Transitional Presidential Council was established through the April 3, 2024 political
agreement brokered by CARICOM to replace the de facto authority of Prime Minister Ariel Henry
following his resignation under international pressure.



## TALKING POINTS

CPT faces four institutional challenges within 72 hours including CEP accusation of unauthorized
amendments RNDDH departure bonus allegations Madistin High Court prosecution shield charge
and Sanon Champ de Mars embezzlement claim
December 28, 2025

Allegations span corruption institutional overreach self-protection and embezzlement creating
comprehensive indictment that makes mandate extension politically toxic
CEP revised electoral calendar creates 365-day constitutional gap between February 7, 2026
expiration and February 7, 2027 presidential inauguration
MORN scheduled December 29 sit-in capitalizes on this moment by mobilizing 40 days before
expiration forcing CPT to address legitimacy crisis
Convergence of allegations represents coordinated civil society and opposition pressure to
prevent mandate extension beyond constitutional deadline



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International community should convene emergency consultations in early January to address
February 7 mandate expiration and assess CPT legitimacy for extension
Private sector should prepare for potential governance vacuum scenarios if CPT expires without
successor on February 7 requiring business continuity planning
Political actors should evaluate whether to participate in negotiations for new transitional
framework or maintain opposition demanding CPT resignation
Diaspora should monitor CARICOM statements in coming weeks for indicators of regional support
for CPT extension versus new transitional mechanism
Humanitarian organizations should develop contingency plans for service delivery disruption if
February 7 expiration triggers institutional collapse
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: CARICOM CHAIR HOLNESS OFFERS VAGUE HAITI PROGRESS

MESSAGING WITHOUT ADDRESSING CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLINE
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness pointed to free movement and Haiti progress as key
achievements in his final address as CARICOM Chair on December 28 representing the first
high-level regional statement on Haiti since the Provisional Electoral Council revised electoral
calendar created a 365-day constitutional gap on December 25. The reference to Haiti progress is
diplomatically vague and fails to address concrete developments including gang control of 80
percent of Port-au-Prince the CPT-CEP institutional conflict over unauthorized Electoral Decree
amendments the four corruption and overreach allegations against CPT members emerging
within 72 hours or the approaching February 7, 2026 mandate expiration now 41 days away.
CARICOM silence on the mandate extension question is now untenable as the regional body that
December 28, 2025

brokered the April 3, 2024 political agreement establishing the CPT must either legitimize a CPT
extension negotiate a new transitional framework or allow February 7 expiration creating
constitutional crisis.
The December 29 MORN sit-in will test whether CARICOM can continue its wait-and-see posture
or must convene an emergency session in early January to address the constitutional deadline. If
CARICOM legitimizes a CPT extension it faces the political difficulty of endorsing a body accused
of corruption unauthorized institutional amendments High Court prosecution shields and
embezzlement within the past 72 hours. If CARICOM negotiates a new transitional framework it
requires Haitian stakeholder buy-in from MORN and allied organizations that rejected the CPT
and demanded adoption of Accord 40 signed by 179 parties and organizations as an alternative
governance mechanism. If CARICOM allows February 7 expiration without intervention it risks
being blamed for institutional collapse and the potential security vacuum that gangs could exploit
to expand territorial control beyond the current 80 percent of Port-au-Prince.
The Holness Haiti progress statement may reflect CARICOM hope that the revised electoral
calendar provides political cover for CPT mandate extension by establishing a technical
justification that elections cannot be organized before the constitutional deadline. However this
interpretation ignores the fact that the 365-day gap between February 7, 2026 and February 7,
2027 was created by CEP decisions that the CPT allegedly interfered with through unauthorized
amendments according to the December 25 CEP accusation. CARICOM credibility as a regional
mediator depends on its willingness to convene stakeholders in January to negotiate either a
legitimate mandate extension framework with concrete electoral milestones and anti-corruption
safeguards or a new transitional mechanism that addresses civil society demands for CPT
resignation. The December 28 Holness statement suggests CARICOM is avoiding this reckoning
but the December 29 MORN mobilization and subsequent January protests will force the regional
body to take a public position on the constitutional deadline with 35 to 40 days remaining.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

CARICOM brokered the April 3, 2024 political agreement that established the Transitional
Presidential Council as a compromise between competing Haitian political factions and
international stakeholders seeking to restore democratic governance following Prime Minister
Ariel Henry resignation.



## TALKING POINTS

Jamaican PM Holness cited Haiti progress in final CARICOM Chair address but provided no
substantive framework for addressing February 7, 2026 deadline
Reference to progress is vague given gang control of 80 percent of Port-au-Prince CPT-CEP
December 28, 2025

conflicts and four corruption allegations within 72 hours
CARICOM must convene emergency session in January to legitimize CPT extension negotiate
new framework or manage February 7 expiration
Regional body faces political difficulty endorsing CPT given corruption allegations or allowing
expiration risking institutional collapse
December 29 MORN sit-in tests whether CARICOM can maintain wait-and-see posture with 40
days until constitutional deadline



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International community should press CARICOM to convene emergency session in early January
with concrete agenda for mandate extension or transitional framework
Private sector should not assume CARICOM support guarantees CPT extension and should
prepare for multiple governance scenarios post-February 7
Political actors should engage CARICOM directly to present alternative transitional frameworks
including Accord 40 as viable governance mechanisms
Diaspora should monitor CARICOM statements and actions in January for indicators of regional
commitment to preventing constitutional crisis
Humanitarian organizations should coordinate with CARICOM on contingency planning for
service delivery if February 7 expiration triggers institutional vacuum
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: NINETEEN HAITIAN MIGRANTS INTERCEPTED AT CANADA BORDER

HIGHLIGHTING PERSISTENT MIGRATION PRESSURES
Nineteen Haitian migrants were intercepted on December 24 Christmas Eve after illegally
crossing the border between the United States and Canada near Havelock Quebec in the midst of
an intense cold wave according to Haiti24 reporting published December 28. The Royal Canadian
Mounted Police received a report from US Border Patrol shortly before 6:00 PM on December 24
leading to the interception of the group attempting irregular border crossing during dangerous
winter conditions. This incident underscores the desperation of Haitian migration flows even
during hazardous weather driven by gang control of 80 percent of Port-au-Prince 1.4 million
internally displaced persons according to UN OCHA reporting and deteriorating humanitarian
conditions affecting 4.2 million vulnerable people representing 37 percent of the population. The
willingness of migrants to attempt border crossing during an intense cold wave on Christmas Eve
December 28, 2025

demonstrates that security and humanitarian conditions in Haiti have become sufficiently dire that
individuals accept life-threatening risks to escape.
The December 24 interception follows broader patterns of Haitian migration to the United States
Canada and Latin American countries throughout 2024 and 2025 as gang territorial expansion
forced displacement from Port-au-Prince neighborhoods and rural areas. The timing during
Christmas Eve suggests migrants may have calculated that reduced border enforcement during
the holiday created opportunity for successful crossing despite extreme weather conditions.
Canadian authorities will likely process the nineteen individuals through immigration detention and
deportation procedures unless they qualify for refugee protection based on credible fear of
persecution or torture if returned to Haiti. The incident will be cited by US and Canadian
immigration enforcement as justification for enhanced border security measures to prevent
irregular crossings particularly during winter months when exposure risks are highest.
The migration pressure indicated by the December 24 interception will intensify if the February 7,
2026 constitutional deadline triggers institutional collapse or gang territorial expansion
accelerates beyond the current 80 percent control of Port-au-Prince. International stakeholders
including the United States Canada and CARICOM member states must recognize that
stabilization efforts in Haiti directly impact migration flows to North America and that failure to
prevent constitutional crisis on February 7 will generate additional displacement and irregular
border crossings in early 2026. The US Embassy reaffirmation of support for World Food
Programme operations in Haiti announced December 28 acknowledges the humanitarian
dimension of the crisis but does not address the governance and security drivers that force
Haitians to attempt dangerous border crossings during intense cold waves on Christmas Eve.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haitian migration to the United States Canada and Latin America has intensified since the 2021
assassination of President Jovenel Moise and subsequent gang territorial expansion with major
migration surges occurring in 2022 through the US-Mexico border and in 2023-2024 through
irregular crossings at the Canada border.



## TALKING POINTS

Nineteen Haitian migrants intercepted December 24 at Canada border during intense cold wave
attempting irregular crossing from United States
Incident demonstrates desperation of migration flows driven by gang control of 80 percent of
Port-au-Prince and 1.4 million internally displaced persons
Migrants accepted life-threatening exposure risks on Christmas Eve indicating security and
humanitarian conditions in Haiti are sufficiently dire
December 28, 2025

US Embassy reaffirmed support for World Food Programme December 28 but humanitarian
assistance does not address governance drivers of migration
Migration pressure will intensify if February 7 constitutional deadline triggers institutional collapse
or gang territorial expansion accelerates



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International stakeholders should recognize Haiti stabilization directly impacts North American
migration flows requiring urgent governance solutions before February 7
Private sector should assess whether migration patterns indicate workforce availability constraints
in Haiti or diaspora remittance flow disruptions
Political actors should cite migration data as evidence that CPT governance failures are
generating regional humanitarian crisis requiring immediate action
Diaspora should prepare to support family members considering migration with accurate
information on border enforcement risks and refugee protection procedures
Humanitarian organizations should coordinate with migration authorities to ensure intercepted
Haitians receive proper screening for protection needs before deportation
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Monitor December 29 MORN sit-in in Petion-Ville for turnout PNH response and escalation risk
with potential for violence if security forces deploy heavy-handed crowd control tactics
Track whether CPT or Prime Minister Fils-Aime issue statements responding to MORN demands
or four institutional allegations from past 72 hours
Assess whether additional civil society organizations or political parties join MORN mobilization
expanding opposition coalition ahead of February 7 deadline



## THIS WEEK

Watch for CARICOM emergency session announcement or substantive statement on Haiti
mandate extension framework following December 29 mobilization
Monitor whether CEP issues clarifications on unauthorized Electoral Decree amendments and
December 28, 2025

legal authority questions raised December 25
Track gang activity patterns to determine if December 29 political unrest creates operational
opportunities for territorial expansion or attacks on commercial infrastructure



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Evaluate international community coordination in early January for emergency consultations on
February 7 constitutional deadline and CPT legitimacy assessment
Assess whether MORN and allied organizations maintain mobilization pressure in January forcing
CPT to announce extension framework or negotiate transitional mechanism
Monitor migration interception data at US and Canada borders for indicators of intensifying
displacement ahead of potential February 7 institutional collapse



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Haiti Libre report on US donation of 25 armored vehicles to PNH December 27 published
December 28
Haiti24 report on nineteen Haitian migrants intercepted at Canada border December 24 published
December 28
Haiti24 report on US Embassy reaffirmation of World Food Programme support published
December 28
Haiti24 report on Samuel Madistin allegations against CPT High Court decree published
December 28
MJ Media 509 report on MORN sit-in scheduled for December 29 in Petion-Ville published
December 27
Le National report on Accord 40 alternative governance framework signed by 179 parties
published earlier December
Caribbean National Weekly report on PM Holness final CARICOM Chair address mentioning Haiti
progress published December 28
US Embassy Port-au-Prince security alert December 18, 2025 on operational environment
OCHA reporting on 1.4 million internally displaced persons and 4.2 million vulnerable people in
Haiti
Carnegie Endowment reporting on PNH personnel constraints and officer casualties December
16
Le Nouvelliste report on High Court of Justice decree institutional context published December 26
Haiti Response organization report on Leslie Voltaire CPT presidency August 13, 2025 context
December 28, 2025



---

*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*