2025-12-15

72-hour priority: December 16 through 19 contestation period Monitor whether any candidacy challenges are filed during the official contestation period. Challenge filings would confirm that candidates registered even without public declarations, providing the first signal of electoral viability before December 22 publication. One-week critical event: Sunday, December 22, final candidate list publication The single most important event of the entire transition period. The Provisional Electoral Council will publish the official list of registered candidates for August 30, 2026 elections. This list will definitively reveal whether major opposition figures registered privately or coordinated a boycott. An empty or minimal list with unknown candidates collapses the August 2026 election timeline and triggers constitutional crisis planning. Ongoing security monitoring: Bel-Air and Port-Sondé status Track whether government security forces respond to the now eight-day Bel-Air massacre or sixteen-day Port-Sondé occupation. Any operational response would indicate a shift from the current non-intervention posture. Continued absence of response confirms permanent state withdrawal from these territories. Countdown tracking: 50 days to Temporary Protected Status expiration Monitor legal challenges to the triple restriction architecture and Department of Homeland Security implementation planning for February 3 Temporary Protected Status expiration. Track whether advocacy organizations secure court intervention or congressional action before the deadline.