2026-02-24

CPT decree issuance on National Pact implementation: trigger is any formal decree from the CPT encoding the February 21 agreement into institutional instruments; direction of travel is either toward confirmed governance momentum or toward a credibility gap that will be flagged by BINUH and international partners; risk is that the absence of implementation instruments by end of week signals the Pact is political optics rather than a functional transition mechanism. CEP electoral calendar confirmation or modification: trigger is any formal CEP communication on calendar status, operational readiness, or party compliance deadlines; risk is that continued calendar stasis in the context of active security alerts creates planning uncertainty for all electoral stakeholders.