2026-02-18

GSF first contingent deployment is targeted for April 2026; UNSOH transition is also scheduled April 1. The convergence of these two transitions creates a coordination gap risk if either slips. The electoral calendar requires security conditions to improve materially by the May 19, 2026 campaign period commencement to maintain the August 30 first-round date. The Fils-Aime government's legitimacy will be tested on three simultaneous tracks: rule-of-law credibility following the RNDDH-DCPJ exposure, humanitarian absorption capacity against the DR deportation surge, and security sector progress measured by GSF deployment and PNH training milestones. CPT mandate for the elected successor expires February 7, 2027.