# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-02-18
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

---

## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: Dominican Republic: 525,000-Plus Haitians Expelled Since October 2025](#development-1-dominican-republic-525,000-plus-haitians-expelled-since-october-2025)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: RNDDH Denounces Four DCPJ Wanted Notices as Absurd, Illegal, and](#development-2-rnddh-denounces-four-dcpj-wanted-notices-as-absurd,-illegal,-and)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: OAS Engagement, Security Buildout, and Post-CPT Institutional Transitions](#development-3-oas-engagement,-security-buildout,-and-post-cpt-institutional-transitions)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: TPS Litigation: Ruling Expected February 19, Supreme Court Path Openly](#development-4-tps-litigation-ruling-expected-february-19,-supreme-court-path-openly)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

---


## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Dominican Republic's expulsion of more than 525,000 Haitians since October 2025 -- a
five-fold monthly acceleration over the 2025 annual average -- has generated a compounding
humanitarian emergency in a country already hosting 1.4 million internally displaced persons and
5.7 million facing acute food insecurity. The National Network for the Defense of Human Rights
exposed four DCPJ wanted notices as politically motivated, directly undermining the Fils-Aime
government's rule-of-law credibility at a critical transition moment. The OAS Permanent Council
convened today on Haiti's political situation. A federal court TPS ruling is expected by February
19. Normal government operations resume February 19 following the Carnival-Ash closure
period.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

The Dominican Republic expelled 525,000-plus Haitians since October 2025, nearly doubling the
entire 2025 annual total in 4.5 months and constituting a humanitarian emergency with no
absorption capacity on the receiving end.
RNDDH declared four DCPJ wanted notices absurd, illegal, and arbitrary; one target freely
accessed DCPJ headquarters since September 2025 as a close personal associate of the DCPJ
director.
OAS Permanent Council met today on Haiti's transition; TPS written ruling expected by February
19 with the federal government openly signaling a Supreme Court escalation path if unsuccessful
at the D.C. Circuit.
Exchange rate stable at approximately 130.80 HTG/USD; Fils-Aime government resumes full
operations February 19 as first post-Carnival working day.
OAS/Canada H-TAC tactical police training commenced at Cap-Haitian; Morne-Casse anti-gang
center instructor training begins end of February.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: Dominican Republic: 525,000-Plus Haitians Expelled Since October 2025

The Dominican Republic's General Directorate of Migration announced that more than 525,000
Haitians have been expelled since October 2025, with Vice Admiral Luis Rafael Lee Ballester
characterizing the operations as routine migration control. The figure represents a structural
escalation of a policy that had operated at approximately 22,500 to 23,000 deportees per month
across 2024 and 2025. The current rate of approximately 117,000 per month exceeds those
February 18, 2026

annual averages by a factor of five and produces nearly double the entire 2025 IOM-recorded
total of 270,214 in just four and a half months.
Haiti lacks functional capacity to absorb and reintegrate deportees at this volume. The country
hosts 1.4 million internally displaced persons, 5.7 million people in acute food insecurity, and an
880 million USD Humanitarian Response Plan funded at only 3.4 percent. Gangs control
approximately 85 to 90 percent of Port-au-Prince and 45 percent of the capital's health facilities
are closed or destroyed. IOM has documented deportation of pregnant and postpartum women
and children under these conditions.
Local Haitian organizations have issued urgent calls for assistance, while IOM and the Migrant
Protection Working Group continue to document conditions at the border and reception points.
The Dominican Republic has simultaneously accelerated construction of a 160-kilometer border
wall equipped with sensors, cameras, and watchtowers, signaling this policy trajectory will not
reverse in the near term.
The operational consequence for international actors is immediate. The existing HRP funding gap
combined with a five-fold deportation acceleration creates a humanitarian math that current
programming cannot absorb. IOM and OCHA must reassess planning assumptions based on a
figure that was not previously visible at this scale.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti-Dominican Republic migration tensions are structural, rooted in a 2013 Constitutional Court
ruling stripping citizenship from descendants of undocumented migrants. Mass deportation
campaigns intensified under President Abinader, who has pursued a stated target of 10,000
deportations per week. The current rate indicates that target has been substantially exceeded.



## TALKING POINTS

525,000-plus Haitians expelled since October 2025 represents a five-fold acceleration over the
2025 monthly average.
Haiti's Humanitarian Response Plan is funded at 3.4 percent against an 880 million USD target.
Deportees are arriving into a country where gangs control the capital and health infrastructure is
collapsed.
IOM has documented deportation of vulnerable populations including pregnant women and
children.
February 18, 2026

No Haitian government reintegration mechanism exists at the scale required.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should immediately reassess HRP assumptions and mobilize
emergency supplemental funding given the five-fold deportation acceleration that existing
planning envelopes did not anticipate.
OCHA and IOM should issue a joint displacement alert tied specifically to the 525,000 figure and
its compounding implications alongside existing IDP and food insecurity burdens.
Bilateral donors should be pressed for emergency budget lines outside the existing underfunded
HRP envelope rather than reallocating from existing programs.
Political actors should prepare public positioning on the deportation crisis, as it directly affects
diaspora communities and electoral legitimacy narratives heading into the campaign period.
Businesses operating humanitarian logistics should review supply chain resilience for reception
corridor areas given the volume of returnees now entering the country.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: RNDDH Denounces Four DCPJ Wanted Notices as Absurd, Illegal, and

Arbitrary
The National Network for the Defense of Human Rights published a detailed denunciation on
February 17 of four wanted notices issued by the Central Directorate of the Judicial Police,
describing them as absurd, illegal, and arbitrary. The notices target former Member of Parliament
Arnel Belizaire, a known Viv Ansanm ally; former Port-au-Prince Municipal Council President
Ralph Youri Chevry; former Port-au-Prince Customs Director Edouard Julcene; and Smith Joseph,
a cabinet member of former CPT Advisor Fritz Alphonse Jean. Charges across the four notices
include financing terrorism, conspiracy against state security, money laundering, illegal firearms
trafficking, and criminal association.
RNDDH's most damaging finding concerns the Belizaire notice, which the organization
February 18, 2026

characterized as a farce. Belizaire is documented as a close personal friend of DCPJ Director
Justin Marc and has had unrestricted access to DCPJ headquarters since September 22, 2025.
Issuing a wanted notice against an individual who routinely enters the institution's own building is
procedurally incoherent and, per RNDDH, constitutes evidence of political instrumentalization
rather than legitimate law enforcement. None of the four individuals were summoned by the DCPJ
before the notices were issued, a violation of basic due process under Haitian law.
The political geometry of the four targets is analytically significant. Chevry was recently removed
as Port-au-Prince mayor and replaced by Fils-Aime appointee Yves Andrel Salomon. Smith
Joseph's association with Fritz Alphonse Jean -- a sanctioned former CPT member -- links the
notices to the post-February 7 political realignment. RNDDH warned explicitly that using the
judicial police as a political instrument constitutes a clear violation of democratic rule-of-law
principles and recommended suspension of all four notices pending legal review.
For the Fils-Aime government, this development arrives at the worst possible moment. The
administration is asking Haiti's population and international partners to trust its security
governance as the foundation for electoral preparation. An RNDDH denunciation of the DCPJ as
politically captured -- with documentation that one target freely accessed DCPJ headquarters for
months -- directly undercuts that credibility claim. The government has issued no public response
to the RNDDH findings as of this reporting period.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

RNDDH is Haiti's most institutionally credible human rights monitoring body and its denunciations
carry weight with BINUH, UN human rights mechanisms, and international donors. Its findings on
DCPJ conduct will likely be incorporated into upcoming BINUH reporting cycles and could trigger
donor-level inquiries into security sector governance standards.



## TALKING POINTS

RNDDH documented that wanted notice target Arnel Belizaire has freely accessed DCPJ
headquarters since September 2025 while the DCPJ director simultaneously lists him as a
fugitive.
None of the four targets were ever summoned before wanted notices were issued, a basic
procedural violation under Haitian law.
Two of the four targets are connected to either the post-February 7 municipal purge or the
sanctioned former CPT advisor Fritz Alphonse Jean.
February 18, 2026

RNDDH explicitly warned against instrumentalizing the judicial police and called for suspension of
all four notices.
The Fils-Aime government has not issued a public response as of the reporting period close.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should flag the RNDDH denunciation in human rights monitoring
pipelines and request DCPJ procedural clarification through BINUH channels before the next
reporting cycle.
The Fils-Aime government should issue a public response to the RNDDH findings to contain
reputational damage before it consolidates in multilateral reporting.
Political actors associated with those named should prepare legal and communications strategies
in anticipation of further DCPJ actions targeting the post-CPT political landscape.
Donor governments funding PNH capacity should condition continued support on adherence to
due process standards and assess whether DCPJ-specific programming should be paused
pending clarification.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: OAS Engagement, Security Buildout, and Post-CPT Institutional Transitions

The OAS Permanent Council convened at 09:30 EST today to receive the Secretary General's
progress report on developments in Haiti's political situation. Full outcomes were not published by
report compilation time. The OAS General Secretariat's baseline position issued February 8
recognized PM Fils-Aime and the cabinet as conducting a short, purposeful, and clearly directed
interim period focused on security improvement and electoral calendar advancement. The
Secretariat identified timely GSF deployment as critical and reiterated the primacy of a
Haitian-led, Haitian-owned approach with regular, structured national consultation and dialogue.
On security force development, the first tactical training course for the PNH was launched under
the OAS Haiti mission with Canadian government funding through the H-TAC project at
Cap-Haitian. The program focuses on precision operations, confined space tactics, and hostage
February 18, 2026

rescue using a train-the-trainer model designed for institutional sustainability. The Morne-Casse
anti-gang training center in the Northeast, visited by PNH Acting Chief Paraison on February 10,
has capacity for 200 officers per cycle with classrooms, dormitories, a 100-meter shooting range,
and tactical courses. Instructor training is scheduled to begin by end of February 2026. The facility
is energy self-sufficient and part of a planned national network of at least four additional training
centers.
Canada continues multi-track engagement: 10 armored vehicles delivered via UNOPS on
February 16, funding of the OAS tactical training program, and training of CARICOM troops via
Operation HELIOS through the 1st Battalion, Royal 22e Regiment. Canada's total commitment
stands at 123 million USD, including 80.5 million for the UN trust fund supporting MSS and GSF
operations. The GSF timeline remains unchanged with first contingents targeted for April 2026, full
deployment by October 2026, and an authorized ceiling of 5,550 personnel. The MSS currently
operates with approximately 1,000 Kenya-led personnel as the drawdown continues.
At the institutional level, the Ministry of National Education announced that ANESRS --
established by decree in December 2025 and installed by the CPT on January 14, 2026 --
formally assumes jurisdiction over all higher education matters effective February 27. The transfer
is contested by the Council of the State University of Haiti, which has formally denounced the
agency's creation as an illegitimate CPT-era imposition. Petion-Ville's new municipal commission
was officially installed with Kesner Normil as president and Amazan Staco and Marie Geralda
Nelson as deputy mayors.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The OAS has served as a primary multilateral anchor for Haiti's electoral and security transition
since 2021. Its logistical role under Roadmap Version 3 includes GSF infrastructure construction,
with transition to UNSOH scheduled for April 1, 2026. ANESRS represents the first major
institutional creation of the CPT era to take operational effect under the Fils-Aime government,
raising legitimacy questions that could recur across other CPT-era decrees.



## TALKING POINTS

OAS Permanent Council met today on Haiti; outcomes will shape multilateral positioning for the
coming weeks.
H-TAC tactical training at Cap-Haitian and Morne-Casse anti-gang center represent parallel PNH
capacity development tracks becoming simultaneously operational.
GSF April 2026 first contingent deadline approaching with UNSOH transition also scheduled April
February 18, 2026

1, creating convergent institutional pressure.
CUEH opposition to ANESRS signals university autonomy as a potential political flashpoint under
the new government.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International organizations should monitor the OAS Permanent Council readout for any shifts in
multilateral position on the GSF timeline or electoral calendar.
Businesses with university partnerships or accreditation dependencies should assess the
ANESRS jurisdiction transfer for operational impact before the February 27 cutover date.
Security planners should update access corridor assessments as Morne-Casse and H-TAC
become operational, as these represent new PNH force projection nodes in the Northeast and
North.
Diplomatic missions should track the CUEH-ANESRS dispute as a barometer of civil society
friction with CPT-era institutional legacies under the new government.
CONFIDENCE
Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: TPS Litigation: Ruling Expected February 19, Supreme Court Path Openly

Signaled
The appellate phase of the Haiti Temporary Protected Status litigation remains active at the D.C.
Circuit Court. Judge Reyes indicated a written ruling by February 19. An 18-state Attorney
General coalition formally filed an amicus brief on February 16 urging the court to block TPS
termination. States and unions have separately filed additional amicus submissions on the same
grounds. Miami-Dade County Tax Collector Dariel Fernandez issued a local government
statement on February 17 providing TPS credential guidance for Haitian nationals, indicating
municipal-level preparation for multiple potential outcomes is underway.
The federal government has openly signaled that, if unsuccessful at the D.C. Circuit, it will seek
Supreme Court review. This two-stage litigation posture means that even a favorable D.C. Circuit
ruling for TPS holders does not resolve the matter -- it escalates it to a higher and less predictable
February 18, 2026

forum. For employers and individuals relying on TPS employment authorization, documents
remain valid unless a court explicitly orders otherwise. That legal baseline holds as of this
reporting period.
The 525,000 Dominican Republic deportation figure carries parallel implications for the diaspora
dimension of this analysis. Haitian diaspora communities in the United States face simultaneous
pressure from potential TPS termination and the humanitarian emergency affecting family
members being expelled from the Dominican Republic. The two pressures compound in diaspora
advocacy networks and political organizing contexts ahead of the US-Haiti policy environment
that will shape the electoral support landscape.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haiti TPS was most recently extended through February 2026 before the current administration
moved toward termination. Haiti-designated TPS holders represent one of the largest TPS
populations in the United States. The 18-state AG coalition reflects a legal resistance pattern
consistent with earlier TPS litigation over other nationalities and signals sustained institutional
opposition to termination.



## TALKING POINTS

Written TPS ruling from Judge Reyes expected by February 19; federal government has
pre-committed to Supreme Court appeal if unsuccessful at the D.C. Circuit.
18-state AG coalition filed amicus brief February 16; Miami-Dade County issuing local guidance
indicates institutional preparation at multiple government levels.
TPS employment authorization documents remain valid absent a specific court order to the
contrary.
Diaspora communities face simultaneous TPS pressure and 525,000-person Dominican Republic
deportation emergency affecting family networks across the same period.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Employers of Haitian TPS holders should immediately brief HR and legal teams on the February
19 ruling timeline and the two-stage litigation path that extends beyond the D.C. Circuit ruling
regardless of outcome.
Diaspora-facing organizations should prepare dual-scenario communications for the February 19
February 18, 2026

ruling and potential Supreme Court escalation, avoiding assumptions that a favorable ruling
resolves the matter.
Political actors engaging diaspora communities should integrate both the TPS ruling and DR
deportation crisis into a coordinated advocacy framework given the compounding pressure on the
same populations.
International organizations should assess whether a Supreme Court TPS reversal would generate
additional return migration pressure on top of existing displacement and deportation burdens
already exceeding absorption capacity.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

TPS written ruling from Judge Reyes is the primary trigger event; the D.C. Circuit order, when
issued, will determine whether the federal government escalates to the Supreme Court. Direction
of travel is toward prolonged litigation regardless of outcome. Government operations resume
February 19 as the first full post-Carnival working day; watch for Fils-Aime decrees, appointments,
or policy announcements that establish the governing agenda for the pre-electoral period. DCPJ
response to the RNDDH denunciation is expected; absence of any response by end of week is
itself an intelligence indicator of government posture on rule-of-law accountability. OAS
Permanent Council readout from today's meeting should be published and will set the multilateral
tone.



## THIS WEEK

ANESRS formal jurisdiction cutover is February 27; the trigger is the MENFP deadline for file
processing transfer. Direction: institutional transition proceeds unless CUEH secures a legal
injunction. Risk: university sector disruption and political mobilization by the academic community
against the new government. Morne-Casse instructor training is scheduled to commence by end
of February; this is the operational debut of the national anti-gang training network. International
community reaction to the 525,000 Dominican Republic deportation figure should emerge in
donor coordination channels; watch for IOM or OCHA emergency communications.
February 18, 2026



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

GSF first contingent deployment is targeted for April 2026; UNSOH transition is also scheduled
April 1. The convergence of these two transitions creates a coordination gap risk if either slips.
The electoral calendar requires security conditions to improve materially by the May 19, 2026
campaign period commencement to maintain the August 30 first-round date. The Fils-Aime
government's legitimacy will be tested on three simultaneous tracks: rule-of-law credibility
following the RNDDH-DCPJ exposure, humanitarian absorption capacity against the DR
deportation surge, and security sector progress measured by GSF deployment and PNH training
milestones. CPT mandate for the elected successor expires February 7, 2027.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

1. Haiti Libre -- Zapping February 18, 2026. Dominican Republic 525,000 expulsion figure,
Petion-Ville municipal commission installation, ANESRS jurisdiction announcement. haitilibre.com
2. Haiti Libre -- RNDDH denunciation of DCPJ wanted notices against Belizaire, Chevry, Julcene,
and Joseph. February 17, 2026. haitilibre.com
9. JD Supra -- TPS litigation update. February 19 ruling deadline and federal government
Supreme Court signal. jdsupra.com
4. Haiti Libre -- Morne-Casse Anti-Gang Training Center facility report following PNH Acting Chief
visit. February 11, 2026. haitilibre.com
5. Haiti Libre -- Zapping February 16, 2026. OAS Permanent Council meeting notice.
haitilibre.com
6. OAS General Secretariat -- Statement recognizing Fils-Aime government and interim period.
February 8, 2026. oas.org
7. MirageNews / OAS -- Permanent Council meeting agenda: Developments in the political
situation in Haiti. February 18, 2026. miragenews.com
8. OAS -- Roadmap Version 3. SECURE-Haiti initiative, H-TAC project specifications, UNSOH
transition April 1 schedule. oas.org
12. IOM / ReliefWeb -- 2025 Haiti deportation data. 270,214 total deportees recorded for full year
2025. reliefweb.int
13. IOM Migrant Protection Working Group -- Documentation of deportation conditions including
pregnant and postpartum women and children. iom.int
3. Haiti Libre -- ANESRS formal assumption of higher education jurisdiction from MENFP.
February 18, 2026. haitilibre.com
10. Law360 -- States and unions urge D.C. Circuit to block Haiti TPS termination. February 2026.
law360.com
February 18, 2026



---

*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*