2026-01-31

Gang territorial expansion beyond established strongholds threatens security force defensive perimeter with PNH numbering 12,000 against 12,000 armed gang members and GSF at 1,000 versus 5,550 authorized. GSF deployment acceleration to reach 5,550 authorized strength by April timeline is critical to address force ratio disadvantage. Political legitimacy crisis post-February 7 may trigger international donor coordination failures if Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime continuity is contested by political parties and civil society. Gourde stability at 131.06 HTG per USD provides macroeconomic anchor but sustained political vacuum could trigger capital flight and exchange rate deterioration. Humanitarian crisis deepens with 5.7 million acute food insecure and 1.4 million displaced as gang control expands into previously secure Sud-Est territories.