# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2026-01-31
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 11

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## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: Viv Ansanm Gang Coalition Massacres Seven in Tet Kajak Village Marking](#development-1-viv-ansanm-gang-coalition-massacres-seven-in-tet-kajak-village-marking)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: US Embassy Issues Security Alert Halting All Government Personnel](#development-2-us-embassy-issues-security-alert-halting-all-government-personnel)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals Blocks TPS Termination for 340,000 Haitians But](#development-3-ninth-circuit-court-of-appeals-blocks-tps-termination-for-340,000-haitians-but)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [DEVELOPMENT 4: CARICOM Virtual Mediation Collapses With Seven Days Until CPT Mandate](#development-4-caricom-virtual-mediation-collapses-with-seven-days-until-cpt-mandate)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [RECOMMENDED DECISIONS](#recommended-decisions)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS](#next-24-to-48-hours)
- [THIS WEEK](#this-week)
- [STRATEGIC HORIZON](#strategic-horizon)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

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## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Viv Ansanm gang coalition executed coordinated attack on Tet Kajak village in Marigot commune
January 30 killing seven residents and forcing displacement to Jacmel, marking first gang territorial
expansion from Kenscoff stronghold into Sud-Est Department. US Embassy issued security alert
January 31 halting all personnel movements due to heavy gunfire near embassy perimeter and
Croix-de-Bouquets. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled January 28 that DHS Secretary Noem
exceeded statutory authority by terminating TPS for 340,000 Haitians ahead of February 3 deadline.
CARICOM virtual mediation January 30 produced no consensus among political stakeholders seven
days before CPT mandate expires February 7, 2026.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Viv Ansanm massacred seven in Tet Kajak expanding gang control from West Department into
Sud-Est Department threatening Jacmel corridor.
US Embassy halted all government personnel movements January 31 due to heavy gunfire in
Tabarre diplomatic zone and Croix-de-Bouquets.
Ninth Circuit blocked deportation of 340,000 Haitians but February 3 TPS expiration deadline
implementation remains uncertain.
CARICOM mediation collapsed with seven days until CPT mandate expires and no agreed
succession framework.
PNH Director General Rameau Normil summoned to Criminal Court February 2 for investigation into
317 missing police rifles.



## DEVELOPMENT 1: Viv Ansanm Gang Coalition Massacres Seven in Tet Kajak Village Marking

Territorial Expansion into Sud-Est Department
Heavily armed Viv Ansanm coalition members attacked Tet Kajak village in Marigot commune early
morning January 30 killing at least seven people including three vigilante brigade members and
wounding four others according to Le Nouvelliste and Vant Bef Info reporting. The assault originated
from gang-controlled Kenscoff territory in Nouvelle Touraine area and resulted in burning of multiple
houses, motorcycle theft and destruction, widespread pillaging, and resident displacement toward
Jacmel. Tet Kajak sits at the West Department and Sud-Est Department junction and the attack
represents strategic escalation beyond Viv Ansanm's Kenscoff stronghold seized January 27, 2025.
Vant Bef Info reported that local residents expressed shock at the incursion noting that while rumors
of Kenscoff-based gang expansion existed the actual attack provoked profound shock among
residents previously spared direct gang violence. Kenscoff Mayor Massillon Jean confirmed multiple
residents fled toward Jacmel but could not provide exact displacement figures and stated that
resistance would continue while requesting reinforced security support. Vant Bef Info analysis
January 31, 2026

warned that absent lasting government response the violence extension toward Marigot exposes the
entire Sud-Est Department to increased insecurity risks.
The strategic significance is that Marigot's fall to gang control would sever the road corridor
connecting Port-au-Prince to Jacmel and the southern coast isolating the capital further and
providing Viv Ansanm access to maritime smuggling routes. The attack coincided with the first
anniversary of Kenscoff commune gang takeover demonstrating one year of territorial control
enabled Viv Ansanm to consolidate positions and project force into adjacent departments. More than
10,000 people have been killed during 22 months of CPT governance as gang territorial expansion
continues unabated.
For humanitarian organizations the Tet Kajak corridor connecting Kenscoff to Marigot and onward to
Jacmel is now a high-risk zone requiring armed escort or alternative routing protocols. PNH
numbers approximately 12,000 officers against an estimated 12,000 armed gang members with the
Gang Suppression Force fielding only 1,000 personnel versus the authorized 5,550 creating severe
force ratio disadvantages that limit counter-gang operational capacity in newly threatened Sud-Est
territories.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Viv Ansanm seized Kenscoff commune on January 27, 2025 establishing territorial control in
mountainous West Department regions. The coalition has held Kenscoff for one year using the area
as a staging base for expansion operations. Sud-Est Department including Jacmel has until now
remained relatively secure compared to Port-au-Prince and Artibonite gang-controlled zones.



## TALKING POINTS

Viv Ansanm executed coordinated multi-hour attack killing seven and displacing residents
demonstrating operational capacity beyond defensive positions.
Tet Kajak junction controls access between West and Sud-Est departments making it strategic
chokepoint for Port-au-Prince to Jacmel corridor.
One year of Kenscoff territorial control enabled gang consolidation and force projection into
previously secure Sud-Est territories.
Security forces outnumbered with 12,000 PNH against 12,000 gang members and GSF at 1,000
versus 5,550 authorized strength.
Humanitarian corridor from Port-au-Prince through Kenscoff to Jacmel now requires armed escort or
alternative routing.
Mayor Massillon Jean requested reinforced security support indicating local authorities cannot
contain gang expansion without external assistance.
January 31, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

WFP and UNICEF should revise Sud-Est access protocols to account for Tet Kajak corridor
insecurity and establish alternative supply routes to Jacmel.
IOM and OCHA should deploy displacement monitoring teams to Jacmel to assess Tet Kajak
refugee flows and establish emergency shelter capacity.
Security sector donors should accelerate GSF deployment timelines and equipment transfers to
address force ratio disadvantage against gang expansion.
BINUH should activate inter-Haitian dialogue facilitation mandate under Resolution 2814 to address
security governance gaps before February 7 CPT expiration.
Private sector clients should suspend overland movements through Kenscoff-Marigot corridor and
utilize Cap-Haitien or maritime access for southern coast operations.
International organizations should coordinate with PNH to establish armed convoy protocols for
essential humanitarian movements through newly threatened territories.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: US Embassy Issues Security Alert Halting All Government Personnel

Movements Due to Heavy Gunfire in Tabarre and Croix-de-Bouquets
The US Embassy in Port-au-Prince issued security alert at 7:49 PM EST January 31 warning of
ongoing security operations north and south of the embassy and in Croix-de-Bouquets with heavy
gunfire reported in the area. The alert stated that US government personnel have halted all
movements indicating threat conditions severe enough to restrict even armored embassy convoys.
The timing one day after the Tet Kajak massacre and seven days before the CPT mandate expires
suggests either PNH and GSF counter-gang operations near embassy perimeter or gang attacks
testing security force defenses during political transition period.
Previous embassy alerts cited similar patterns with heavy gunfire in Pernier, Torcel, and
Croix-de-Bouquets zones south of the embassy compound and gang presence near the OAVCT
checkpoint on Boulevard 15 October recurring as security concern. The January 31 alert was issued
during daylight operational hours when embassy activities would normally continue reflecting
assessment that immediate threat exceeds routine gang activity levels. Embassy security alerts
typically precede extended movement restrictions or evacuation advisories for American citizens if
January 31, 2026

conditions deteriorate further.
The operational implications are that even the Tabarre diplomatic zone previously considered
relatively secure now faces gang proximity attacks or major security operations requiring total
personnel movement suspension. For businesses maintaining expatriate staff in Port-au-Prince the
embassy alert signals deterioration in security conditions across multiple zones simultaneously
rather than isolated incidents. Executive evacuation protocols and secure shelter-in-place
procedures should be reviewed and updated based on embassy assessment that movement risks
exceed acceptable thresholds.
The convergence of Tet Kajak gang expansion, embassy perimeter insecurity, and approaching
February 7 political deadline creates cascading institutional risk where security forces must defend
against territorial expansion while maintaining control of critical infrastructure and diplomatic zones.
The alert demonstrates that gang operational tempo is increasing rather than decreasing as political
transition approaches potentially testing whether government maintains effective sovereignty in
Port-au-Prince center during CPT mandate expiration period.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

US Embassy security alerts have been issued periodically throughout 2025 and early 2026 as gang
violence intensified in Port-au-Prince. The embassy maintains Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory for
Haiti warning that gang violence controls 90 percent of Port-au-Prince and creates life-threatening
risks. Previous alerts in 2025 cited heavy gunfire in zones surrounding the Tabarre embassy
compound requiring movement restrictions.



## TALKING POINTS

Embassy halted all US government personnel movements indicating threat assessment exceeds
routine gang activity and armored convoy protection capacity.
Alert covers multiple zones simultaneously including north and south of embassy perimeter and
Croix-de-Bouquets suggesting coordinated gang operations.
Timing seven days before CPT mandate expiration raises concern gangs may test security force
capacity during political transition vulnerability.
Tabarre diplomatic zone previously considered relatively secure now requires total movement
suspension demonstrating security deterioration.
Alert issued during daylight operational hours rather than overnight indicating immediate rather than
precautionary threat assessment.
No evacuation advisory issued for American citizens yet but movement restrictions typically precede
broader security posture changes.
January 31, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Businesses with expatriate personnel should activate secure shelter-in-place protocols and suspend
non-essential movements until embassy lifts movement restrictions.
Security contractors should coordinate with embassy Regional Security Office to obtain real-time
threat assessments and cleared movement corridors.
International organizations should defer field visits and program activities requiring movement
through affected zones until security conditions stabilize.
Aviation clients should monitor whether embassy issues departure advisory for American citizens
which would signal further deterioration.
Diplomatic missions should review mutual assistance agreements and evacuation coordination
protocols with US Embassy in case broader security collapse occurs.
Private sector should prepare contingency plans for sustained movement restrictions potentially
lasting multiple days if gang operations continue.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals Blocks TPS Termination for 340,000 Haitians But

February 3 Implementation Remains Uncertain
The US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit issued ruling January 28 affirming district court
decision that Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem exceeded statutory authority
by attempting to terminate Temporary Protected Status for 340,000 Haitians ahead of scheduled
February 3, 2026 expiration. The three-judge panel held that Noem's actions fundamentally
contradict Congressional statutory design and her assertion of unchecked power to vacate country
TPS designation is irreconcilable with plain statutory language. The court concluded Noem's
determination that Haiti no longer meets TPS conditions was not reached in accordance with
procedures established by Congress under relevant statute.
The ruling addresses policy contradiction that advocacy groups termed deporting people to war
zone where US State Department maintains Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory for Haiti warning gang
violence controls 90 percent of Port-au-Prince while simultaneously DHS prepared to deport
340,000 Haitians to identical environment. The Ninth Circuit ruling blocks legal mechanism DHS
attempted to use for mass deportations ahead of statutory deadline but uncertainty remains about
January 31, 2026

practical implementation with February 3 deadline three days away from January 31.
Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti stated that attorneys who defeated Trump administration
TPS termination attempts during first term are working to obtain federal court orders blocking DHS
from ending Haiti TPS designation on February 3. The case originally challenged Secretary Noem's
February 24, 2025 Federal Register Notice shortening Haiti TPS period and was later amended to
challenge subsequent termination effective September 2. Legal complexity creates operational
uncertainty for 340,000 affected Haitians many of whom work in critical healthcare roles as
physicians and nurses.
The TPS legal victory creates protection window but deportation infrastructure remains in place and
February 3 deadline approaching requires continued legal intervention to enforce Ninth Circuit
ruling. For diaspora communities the ruling provides temporary relief but does not resolve underlying
policy contradiction between State Department travel warnings advising immediate departure for
Americans and DHS deportation policies requiring Haitian returns to identical threat environment
with 10,000 plus deaths in 22 months of CPT governance.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Temporary Protected Status for Haiti has been extended multiple times since 2010 earthquake with
most recent 18-month extension scheduled to expire February 3, 2026. Trump administration
attempted TPS termination during first term but federal courts blocked implementation. Secretary
Noem attempted to shorten current designation from 18 months to 12 months moving expiration
from February 3, 2026 to August 3, 2025 which courts ruled exceeded statutory authority.



## TALKING POINTS

Ninth Circuit ruled DHS Secretary exceeded statutory authority creating legal basis to block
February 3 deportations but implementation uncertain.
340,000 Haitians face deportation to environment where State Department warns Americans to
depart immediately due to life-threatening gang violence.
Policy contradiction unresolved with Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory for US citizens while preparing
mass deportations of Haitians to identical zones.
Healthcare workforce threatened as many TPS holders work as physicians and nurses in critical
roles across United States.
Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti pursuing additional court orders to enforce Ninth Circuit
ruling before February 3 deadline.
Legal complexity creates operational uncertainty for affected families with three days until scheduled
TPS expiration and deportation timeline.
January 31, 2026



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

Diaspora organizations should coordinate with legal advocacy groups to monitor enforcement of
Ninth Circuit ruling and identify TPS holders requiring legal assistance.
Healthcare facilities employing TPS holders should prepare contingency staffing plans in case
February 3 deportations proceed despite court ruling.
Family members in Haiti should establish emergency communication protocols with US-based
relatives in case deportation enforcement begins.
Immigration attorneys should prioritize TPS renewal applications and alternative status pathways for
clients facing February 3 deadline.
Haitian government officials should coordinate with US State Department to communicate security
conditions incompatible with mass deportation arrival capacity.
Congressional offices should be contacted to request legislative intervention extending TPS
designation beyond February 3 to resolve legal uncertainty.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## DEVELOPMENT 4: CARICOM Virtual Mediation Collapses With Seven Days Until CPT Mandate

Expires and No Political Consensus Framework
CARICOM convened virtual meeting January 30 bringing together political party representatives and
civil society organizations in final mediation effort before CPT February 7 mandate expiration. Le
Nouvelliste reported that as has been case for past two years during every meeting between Haitian
stakeholders and CARICOM Eminent Persons cacophony replaced any potent consensus. The
newspaper analysis characterized the session as emblematic of broader dysfunction with eight days
ahead of February 7 no solution has emerged within Haiti political class to chart way forward.
CARICOM Eminent Persons Group comprising former prime ministers of St. Lucia, Jamaica, and
The Bahamas warned in January that it is vital stakeholders reach consensus before February 7,
2026 cautioning that failure could lead to unwanted repercussions. The Group's January 27
statement expressed great concern that current impasse within CPT following inconclusive efforts to
dismiss Prime Minister renders more complex already fraught governance transition process. The
January 30 virtual meeting represented CARICOM final structured mediation opportunity and its
failure to produce consensus leaves Haiti with seven days until mandate expires and no agreed
January 31, 2026

alternative governance framework.
The mediation collapse strengthens Laurent Saint-Cyr and Alix Didier Fils-Aime executive continuity
scenario as most likely outcome but CARICOM failure demonstrates political parties and civil society
actors have not accepted their authority post-February 7. CPT member Leslie Voltaire promised
January 17 that formula will be found to replace CPT before February 7 with 60 percent political
class acceptance but CARICOM cacophony suggests formula does not exist. Civil society groups
including NCANG, Opposition plurielle, and MORN have validated street mobilization strategy after
mediation failure with demonstrations likely to escalate in final seven days before deadline.
The convergence of mediation collapse, gang territorial expansion at Tet Kajak, embassy security
alert, and PNH Director General Rameau Normil Criminal Court summons February 2 for 317
missing rifles creates institutional fragility at moment when security leadership corruption
undermines operational capacity. CARICOM Eminent Persons Group credibility is exhausted after
two years of mediation produced no consensus but group remains at disposal for facilitation. The
political vacuum materializing February 7 occurs simultaneously with gang expansion demonstrating
weakest governance coincides with highest security threat.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

CARICOM has mediated Haiti political transition since April 2024 when Transitional Presidential
Council was established with two-year mandate expiring February 7, 2026. Eminent Persons Group
has conducted multiple rounds of shuttle diplomacy and stakeholder consultations but political
parties and civil society organizations have failed to reach consensus on post-CPT governance
framework. CPT internal dysfunction including failed attempt to dismiss Prime Minister Alix Didier
Fils-Aime has undermined institutional credibility.



## TALKING POINTS

January 30 virtual meeting produced cacophony rather than consensus with seven days until CPT
mandate expires demonstrating mediation failure.
CARICOM two years of facilitation exhausted credibility as political parties refuse compromise
despite 10,000 plus deaths during CPT governance.
Laurent Saint-Cyr and Alix Didier Fils-Aime continuity scenario most likely but contested legitimacy
creates operational uncertainty for international partners.
Leslie Voltaire January 17 promise of formula with 60 percent acceptance appears unfounded as no
consensus emerged from final mediation session.
Civil society groups NCANG, Opposition plurielle, and MORN likely to escalate street
demonstrations in final seven days before February 7 deadline.
January 31, 2026

Political vacuum materializes simultaneously with gang territorial expansion and security leadership
corruption investigation creating cascading institutional risk.



## RECOMMENDED DECISIONS

International donors should prepare contingency plans for post-February 7 governance scenarios
including Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime continuity or alternative frameworks.
BINUH should activate Resolution 2814 inter-Haitian dialogue facilitation mandate to establish
successor consultations if CPT authority expires without replacement.
Business clients should monitor civil society demonstration schedules and suspend operations
during street mobilization periods in final seven days.
Political risk analysts should advise clients that governance vacuum increases probability of security
force fragmentation or PNH leadership changes.
Diplomatic missions should coordinate position on recognition of post-February 7 authorities and
establish unified international community messaging.
Security sector partners should accelerate GSF deployment timelines to compensate for
governance transition vulnerability and potential PNH leadership instability.
CONFIDENCE
High confidence based on official institutional reporting.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT





## NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS

Rameau Normil Criminal Court appearance February 2 for 317 missing rifles investigation will
determine whether PNH Director General faces resignation or dismissal during political transition.
US Embassy security alert duration and whether personnel movement restrictions extend beyond
January 31 will signal gang operational tempo and PNH counter-operation success. Sud-Est
Department gang activity following Tet Kajak massacre will indicate whether Viv Ansanm
consolidates Marigot territorial control or PNH mounts counter-offensive. TPS implementation as
February 3 deadline arrives will determine whether DHS enforces expiration despite Ninth Circuit
ruling or advocacy groups obtain enforcement orders.



## THIS WEEK

January 31, 2026

February 7 CPT mandate expiration will trigger either Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime continuity
announcement or governance vacuum with no agreed successor framework. Civil society street
demonstrations are expected to escalate in final days before deadline testing whether political actors
accept executive continuity or demand alternative transition process. CARICOM Eminent Persons
Group may attempt final shuttle diplomacy after January 30 virtual meeting failure but credibility
exhausted. Viv Ansanm territorial consolidation in Sud-Est Department will determine humanitarian
corridor viability and displacement flows to Jacmel requiring IOM and OCHA emergency response.



## STRATEGIC HORIZON

Gang territorial expansion beyond established strongholds threatens security force defensive
perimeter with PNH numbering 12,000 against 12,000 armed gang members and GSF at 1,000
versus 5,550 authorized. GSF deployment acceleration to reach 5,550 authorized strength by April
timeline is critical to address force ratio disadvantage. Political legitimacy crisis post-February 7 may
trigger international donor coordination failures if Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime continuity is contested by
political parties and civil society. Gourde stability at 131.06 HTG per USD provides macroeconomic
anchor but sustained political vacuum could trigger capital flight and exchange rate deterioration.
Humanitarian crisis deepens with 5.7 million acute food insecure and 1.4 million displaced as gang
control expands into previously secure Sud-Est territories.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Le Nouvelliste - Tet Kajak attack reporting with casualty figures and mayor statement January 30,
2026
Vant Bef Info - Sud-Est Department gang expansion analysis and resident displacement
documentation January 30, 2026
US Embassy Port-au-Prince - Security alert for heavy gunfire and personnel movement suspension
January 31, 2026
Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals - National TPS Alliance v. Noem ruling on DHS statutory authority
January 28, 2026
Littler Law Firm - Legal analysis of Ninth Circuit TPS termination decision January 28, 2026
Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti - TPS advocacy and court enforcement strategy
statement January 2026
National TPS Alliance - Federal court ruling victory announcement and ongoing litigation status
January 2026
Le Nouvelliste - CARICOM virtual meeting failure and political cacophony reporting January 30,
2026
Travel Tourister - TPS deadline and State Department travel advisory policy contradiction January
31, 2026
Jamaica Observer - CARICOM Eminent Persons Group statement on Haiti governance impasse
January 27, 2026
Haiti Libre - PNH Director General Rameau Normil Criminal Court summons for missing rifles
January 31, 2026
Reuters - Gang Suppression Force deployment status and authorized strength targets January 22,
2026
January 31, 2026



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*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*