2026-01-31

January 31, 2026 February 7 CPT mandate expiration will trigger either Saint-Cyr and Fils-Aime continuity announcement or governance vacuum with no agreed successor framework. Civil society street demonstrations are expected to escalate in final days before deadline testing whether political actors accept executive continuity or demand alternative transition process. CARICOM Eminent Persons Group may attempt final shuttle diplomacy after January 30 virtual meeting failure but credibility exhausted. Viv Ansanm territorial consolidation in Sud-Est Department will determine humanitarian corridor viability and displacement flows to Jacmel requiring IOM and OCHA emergency response.