2026-01-15

Evaluate whether Haiti transitions via coordinated framework with adequate implementation timeline international imposition through CARICOM weekend summit or fragmented collapse with multiple competing governance claims post-February 7. Monitor if gangs resume Port-au-Prince violence late January spanning January 20-25 to pressure amnesty negotiations as February 7 approaches. Assess whether 5800 newly displaced from January 14-15 operations represent initial wave of larger humanitarian crisis if PNH intensifies operations through late January demonstrating security progress before constitutional deadline.