2026-01-09

If silence continues through January 12 expect mid-January announcements between January 15-20 creating compressed 18-22 day implementation timeline. Model three scenarios for late January between January 20-25 gang operational resumption triggering security deterioration CPT announces unilateral mandate extension without international coordination or multiple actors announce competing February 7 frameworks creating legitimacy contest. Watch for diaspora mobilization patterns indicating whether TPS uncertainty reduces engagement capacity or triggers increased February 7 governance activism. January 09, 2026