2026-01-09

International stakeholders should convene emergency CARICOM OAS UN coordination meetings by January 12 to resolve U.S.-Canada split and announce unified February 7 framework. Civil society organizations should launch public mobilization campaigns explaining replacement formula proposals and pressuring CPT for response. Diaspora networks should prepare for multiple governance scenarios post-February 7 including competing legitimacy claims. Private sector actors should model operational contingencies for constitutional gap period assuming no framework announced until mid-January. Humanitarian organizations should position resources for potential security deterioration if gang operational pause ends mid-to-late January. Researchers should track whether January 12 produces statements or whether silence extends through mid-January window. CONFIDENCE Moderate confidence based on partial institutional reporting.