2025-12-12

The seven month constitutional vacuum between February 7 and August 30 creates extreme legal risk for contracts, permits, licenses, and agreements signed during that period as the transitional government will lack constitutional authority to enforce obligations or issue binding decisions. The normalization of five-day urban warfare without government intervention in Port-au-Prince demonstrates that security improvements remain fragile and reversible with gang territorial control persisting despite international security assistance. The registration silence and boycott risks indicate potential for electoral results that lack legitimacy creating scenarios where losing parties refuse to accept transitions or challenge governmental authority complicating business operations requiring stable institutional partners. RECOMMENDED DECISION Suspend major capital commitments and long-term contract negotiations until constitutional clarity emerges on post-February 7 governmental authority and legal framework. For existing operations ensure all critical agreements, permits, renewals, and contract amendments are finalized and executed before February 7, 2026 to Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time secure constitutional foundation. Revise security protocols to assume Haitian National Police will not intervene in gang territorial disputes meaning private security operations must be capable of autonomous protection without state backup or rapid response. Consider relocating expatriate staff dependents before February 7 given political uncertainty and potential for institutional instability. Develop scenario plans for operations under unconstitutional transitional government including legal remedies and dispute resolution mechanisms if government actions during February through August period are later challenged or invalidated. Political Actors