# AYITI INTEL - DAILY

**Date:** 2025-12-12
**Language:** EN
**Pages:** 9

---

## Table of Contents

- [EXECUTIVE SUMMARY](#executive-summary)
- [QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS](#quick-summary-for-stakeholders)
- [DEVELOPMENT 1: Electoral Calendar Clarified But Constitutional Crisis Exposed](#development-1-electoral-calendar-clarified-but-constitutional-crisis-exposed)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [DEVELOPMENT 2: Bel-Air Massacre Enters Fifth Day With Zero Government Response](#development-2-bel-air-massacre-enters-fifth-day-with-zero-government-response)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [DEVELOPMENT 3: The Silent Registration Strategy](#development-3-the-silent-registration-strategy)
- [HISTORICAL CONTEXT](#historical-context)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [TALKING POINTS](#talking-points)
- [WHAT TO WATCH NEXT](#what-to-watch-next)
- [PRIMARY SOURCES](#primary-sources)

---


## EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The electoral calendar confusion is resolved with August 30, 2026 confirmed as the official first round date by
multiple authoritative sources including France24, EFE News, Wikipedia, and US Congressional Research
Service. The earlier February 1 timeline was a draft proposal superseded after the CPT determined it impossible
to meet. This clarification exposes the deeper constitutional crisis as the CPT mandate expires February 7,
leaving a seven and a half month governance vacuum with no legal extension mechanism. The Bel-Air massacre
enters its fifth consecutive day with over 60 dead and zero government response, signaling deliberate
non-intervention policy. Candidate registration ends Sunday with notable silence from major opposition figures.



## QUICK SUMMARY FOR STAKEHOLDERS

August 30, 2026 is the confirmed election date per government decree approved December 1 and reported by
France24, EFE, and Congressional Research Service. The February 1 date was an obsolete draft timeline. The
CPT mandate expires February 7, 2026 creating a seven month legal vacuum before elections unless CARICOM
negotiates emergency extension framework. Bel-Air violence continues fifth day with 60 plus dead and no police
intervention or government statements. Candidate registration deadline Sunday December 15 shows unusual
silence from major opposition parties suggesting either quiet registration or coordinated boycott.
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS



## DEVELOPMENT 1: Electoral Calendar Clarified But Constitutional Crisis Exposed

CONFIDENCE
High Confidence. Multiple authoritative international sources confirm August 30, 2026 as the official
election date. France24 reported December 2 that Haiti's transitional authorities unveiled the electoral
timetable announcing August 30, 2026 elections. Wikipedia cites November 14 CEP submission and
December 1 CPT approval setting general elections for two rounds on August 30 and December 6, 2026.
US Congressional Research Service report dated November 26 states the Provisional Electoral Council
submitted an electoral calendar to the provisional government for elections in August 2026. CTN Info
reported November 17 that the CEP set August 30, 2026 as the date for first round presidential and
legislative elections.
What's Happening
The electoral calendar confusion is definitively resolved. The official election timeline sets March 2026 for
campaign period launch, July 31, 2026 for electoral list publication, August 30, 2026 for first round voting covering
presidential, legislative, and local offices, December 6, 2026 for second round, and February 7, 2027 for
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

presidential inauguration. The earlier February 1, 2026 timeline was a draft proposal published by the CEP in late
October that was subsequently revised to August 30 after the CPT concluded the February date was impossible
due to security and logistical constraints. The confusion arose because the October draft received wide publicity in
Haitian media while the November revision submitted to the Executive was not immediately publicized and the
December 1 CPT approval formalizing the August 30 date occurred while Haitian media continued citing the
obsolete February timeline. The current December 1 through 15 candidate registration period is confirmed to be
for the August 30, 2026 election.
Why This Matters
The calendar clarification provides electoral certainty ending weeks of operational confusion for candidates,
political parties, and international observers. However, this clarity exposes the more fundamental constitutional
crisis. The CPT constitutional mandate expires February 7, 2026, exactly 57 days from today. With elections now
scheduled for August 30, Haiti will operate without constitutional governmental authority for seven and a half
months. The Haitian Constitution provides no mechanism for the CPT to extend its own mandate beyond the
February 7 deadline. No constitutional amendments have been proposed. CARICOM which brokered the original
transitional agreement has not announced any framework for managing the post-February 7 period. International
partners including the OAS have identified this as critical priority but have not presented solutions. The
governance vacuum period would cover essential electoral preparation activities including voter registration
verification, polling station setup, and security deployment for the GSF mission. Every government action during
this period including laws passed, decrees issued, international agreements signed, and financial commitments
made would lack constitutional foundation creating massive legal risk for international partners requiring
constitutional legitimacy for operational partnerships and financial disbursements.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

The February 7 date carries profound constitutional significance in Haiti marking the traditional presidential
inauguration date commemorating the fall of the Duvalier dictatorship on February 7, 1986. The date appears
throughout the 1987 Constitution as a fundamental institutional marker. The CPT was established in April 2024
through CARICOM mediation with explicit understanding it would govern only until February 7, 2026 when elected
authorities would assume power. This timeline was negotiated by CARICOM and accepted by all political actors as
a hard deadline establishing the constitutional compact legitimizing the current transitional government. Missing
this deadline does not merely delay transition but fundamentally breaks the constitutional agreement. Haiti has not
held national elections since 2016 when Jovenel Moïse was elected and inaugurated February 2017. Electoral
calendar announcements have been repeatedly delayed, revised, and contradicted throughout the transition
period creating patterns of institutional unreliability.



## DEVELOPMENT 2: Bel-Air Massacre Enters Fifth Day With Zero Government Response

CONFIDENCE
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

High Confidence. Multiple international news agencies including ABC News, Washington Post, and
Council on Foreign Relations confirm the ongoing Bel-Air violence beginning December 8. Death toll
reporting ranges from 49 to over 60 with specific casualties documented including 10 child recruits, 19
women executed, and high-profile gang leaders. Impulsé Web Médias reported December 10 on continued
night violence in Bel-Air. No official government statements or police intervention reports have emerged
in any source.
What's Happening
The Krache Dife gang splinter assault on rival Viv Ansanm factions in Bel-Air has now continued for five
consecutive days from December 8 through 12. The confirmed death toll exceeds 60 including 10 children who
were gang recruits, 19 women executed during the violence, and at least 19 gang members. High-profile
casualties include Dede, a gang leader who was beheaded, and Kempes Sanon, another prominent gang figure
who was wounded. Impulsé Web Médias reported December 10 that night terror continued in Bel-Air with gangs
plunging the neighborhood back into fear noting that although no official report has been communicated the
population fears the spiral of violence will repeat itself in this already martyred neighborhood. As of Friday evening
December 12, no official government statement has addressed the ongoing violence and no police intervention
has been reported in any media source. The violence represents an internal power struggle within the Viv Ansanm
gang federation with Krache Dife attempting to break away and establish independent territorial control.
Why This Matters
The five-day duration without any government response represents a fundamental policy decision, not operational
incapacity. The Haitian National Police deliberate non-intervention signals strategic acceptance of gang
self-purging with the calculation that allowing rival factions to weaken each other through internal conflict benefits
eventual state operations. This doctrine treats gang-controlled territories as zones where extreme violence is
tolerated provided it does not threaten government institutions or commercial areas. The death toll now exceeds
the October Pont-Sonde massacre that triggered international condemnation yet has produced no comparable
response. This normalizes multi-day urban warfare in the capital creating expectations that future gang territorial
disputes will receive similar non-intervention. The absence of humanitarian access during five days of violence
demonstrates complete state withdrawal from Bel-Air. For international partners including the GSF mission this
raises critical questions about rules of engagement and whether international forces will intervene in
gang-on-gang violence or limit operations to protecting government functions and strategic infrastructure.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Bel-Air has been gang-controlled territory for over a decade experiencing periodic territorial wars between rival
factions. The Viv Ansanm coalition formed in 2023 as a federation of previously independent gangs seeking to
coordinate control over Port-au-Prince. The coalition structure has always been unstable with member gangs
maintaining separate territorial bases and independent leadership structures. Previous internal conflicts within Viv
Ansanm resulted in temporary violence followed by negotiated truces brokered by coalition leadership. The Krache
Dife splinter represents a more fundamental break suggesting the coalition structure is collapsing under pressure
from government security operations and the pending GSF deployment. The PNH non-intervention doctrine
emerged gradually throughout 2024 and 2025 as gang territorial control expanded while police capacity remained
limited despite Multinational Security Support mission presence. The Council on Foreign Relations assessment
notes the fighting has destabilized Viv Ansanm internal hierarchy and raised fears of accelerated gang warfare
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

across the capital.



## DEVELOPMENT 3: The Silent Registration Strategy

CONFIDENCE
Medium Confidence. The December 1 through 15 candidate registration period is confirmed through
multiple sources including Haiti Libre and Haiti Info Project. The notable absence of major candidate
announcements over the past 48 hours is observable but the underlying cause requires interpretation.
The December 22 candidate list publication will provide definitive data on whether registration occurred
privately or major parties boycotted.
What's Happening
With three days remaining until the December 15 candidate registration deadline, the absence of major candidate
announcements has evolved from delay into a pattern. No prominent opposition figures have held press
conferences announcing candidacies. No major political parties have issued statements about registration
completion. The silence contrasts sharply with typical Haitian electoral cycles where candidate declarations
generate significant media coverage and political theater. The CEP December 16 through 19 contestation period
will allow challenges to registrations followed by December 22 final candidate list publication. The campaign
period for the August 30 election is scheduled to begin in March 2026. The registration silence occurs against
backdrop of the now-clarified August 30 timeline meaning candidates have eight months to campaign rather than
the two months they would have faced under the obsolete February 1 timeline.
Why This Matters
The registration silence suggests three possible scenarios. First, candidates may be registering privately without
media fanfare calculating that early public announcements attract unnecessary scrutiny or gang targeting in the
current security environment. Second, major opposition parties may be coordinating a boycott waiting until after
the December 15 deadline to denounce the process as illegitimate and refuse participation. Third, confusion over
the February 1 versus August 30 timeline may have caused major political actors to delay decisions while awaiting
clarification that only arrived this week. The December 22 candidate list publication will definitively reveal which
scenario is operative. If the list shows robust registration from major parties and prominent figures then private
registration explains the silence. If the list shows minimal participation or absence of major opposition names then
coordinated boycott becomes likely. The implications for electoral legitimacy are profound as elections without
major opposition participation would face immediate credibility challenges from losing parties and skeptical
international observers.



## HISTORICAL CONTEXT

Haitian electoral cycles traditionally feature dramatic candidate announcement events with political parties staging
rallies and press conferences to launch candidacies. The 2015-2016 electoral cycle saw multiple rounds of
candidate registration followed by boycotts and annulments creating precedent for opposition parties withdrawing
participation to delegitimize results. The current transition context where the CPT and CEP were imposed through
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

international mediation rather than emerging from national consensus creates additional boycott risk. Major
opposition figures including former presidents and prominent senators have not publicly committed to participating
in the 2026 elections. The registration period timing during December when many diaspora political actors travel to
Haiti would typically see increased announcement activity making the current silence more notable.
IMPLICATIONS BY STAKEHOLDER
International Organizations



## TALKING POINTS

The August 30 electoral timeline provides operational planning certainty for the first time since the transition
began allowing international observers, technical assistance providers, and security partners to develop concrete
deployment schedules and resource allocation plans. However, the February 7 CPT mandate expiration requires
immediate diplomatic intervention to establish constitutional framework for the seven month governance gap. The
Bel-Air non-intervention policy signals that security sector support alone cannot restore order without addressing
the political legitimacy crisis preventing effective state action. The registration silence creates uncertainty about
electoral viability requiring contingency planning for scenarios including major party boycotts or minimal candidate
participation that would undermine result legitimacy.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Convene emergency CARICOM consultations before December 20 to negotiate constitutional amendments or
transitional protocols covering February 7 through August 30 governance period. Coordinate with United Nations
to establish that GSF deployment will not proceed without clear constitutional authority for host government
operations. Deploy diplomatic pressure on major opposition parties before December 22 candidate list publication
to confirm participation intentions and address boycott risks. Use financial leverage to demand CEP transparency
on registration numbers and party participation to provide early warning of legitimacy challenges. Prepare
contingency frameworks for scenarios where February 7 deadline passes without constitutional resolution
including potential suspension of financial disbursements and operational partnerships with unconstitutional
transitional government.
Businesses



## TALKING POINTS

The seven month constitutional vacuum between February 7 and August 30 creates extreme legal risk for
contracts, permits, licenses, and agreements signed during that period as the transitional government will lack
constitutional authority to enforce obligations or issue binding decisions. The normalization of five-day urban
warfare without government intervention in Port-au-Prince demonstrates that security improvements remain fragile
and reversible with gang territorial control persisting despite international security assistance. The registration
silence and boycott risks indicate potential for electoral results that lack legitimacy creating scenarios where losing
parties refuse to accept transitions or challenge governmental authority complicating business operations
requiring stable institutional partners.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Suspend major capital commitments and long-term contract negotiations until constitutional clarity emerges on
post-February 7 governmental authority and legal framework. For existing operations ensure all critical
agreements, permits, renewals, and contract amendments are finalized and executed before February 7, 2026 to
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

secure constitutional foundation. Revise security protocols to assume Haitian National Police will not intervene in
gang territorial disputes meaning private security operations must be capable of autonomous protection without
state backup or rapid response. Consider relocating expatriate staff dependents before February 7 given political
uncertainty and potential for institutional instability. Develop scenario plans for operations under unconstitutional
transitional government including legal remedies and dispute resolution mechanisms if government actions during
February through August period are later challenged or invalidated.
Political Actors



## TALKING POINTS

Candidates who registered by December 15 must immediately secure written confirmation from the CEP
specifying that registration is for the August 30, 2026 election to prevent future disputes over timeline validity or
candidacy status. The February 7 CPT mandate expiration provides leverage to demand constitutional guarantees
and CARICOM-brokered extension frameworks before committing campaign resources to an electoral process
that may occur under illegitimate governmental authority. The registration silence from major opposition creates
strategic opportunity for participating candidates to position themselves as legitimate democratic actors willing to
engage in transition process while boycotting parties risk irrelevance. The December 22 candidate list publication
will define the competitive landscape revealing whether elections will feature genuine multi-party competition or
reduced fields that undermine result credibility.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Form unified candidate coalition immediately to submit formal written demands to the CEP by December 13
requiring official written confirmation of August 30 timeline with legal citations and constitutional basis. Demand
written guarantees that registration completions will be honored under final electoral calendar. Simultaneously
engage CARICOM representatives to demand their mediation on February 7 constitutional crisis making clear that
candidates will not legitimize elections held under unconstitutional authority. Use December 22 candidate list
publication as decision point for continued participation, establishing public criteria for withdrawal if major parties
have boycotted or if constitutional crisis remains unresolved. Develop campaign strategies optimized for eight
month timeline with March 2026 launch recognizing that early spending without constitutional certainty creates
resource waste risks.
Diaspora



## TALKING POINTS

The electoral calendar clarification to August 30 provides diaspora communities eight months to organize voter
registration drives, mobilize financial support for preferred candidates, and coordinate return travel for voting
rather than the compressed two month timeline under the obsolete February proposal. However, the February 7
constitutional deadline approaching without transition plan confirms the Haitian political class has not seriously
prepared for elections despite years of international pressure. Diaspora communities should prepare for extended
uncertainty and potential constitutional crisis scenarios including possible rejection of electoral results, refusal by
losing parties to accept transitions, or challenges to governmental legitimacy during the February through August
governance vacuum. The registration silence raises concerns about electoral viability and whether major
opposition participation will materialize.
RECOMMENDED DECISION
Diaspora organizations should systematically document the current electoral confusion by archiving contradictory
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

official statements, media reports, and government communications to establish clear record of institutional
dysfunction for future accountability purposes. Coordinate with international partners and diplomatic missions to
demand transparent electoral calendar clarification and constitutional crisis resolution. For diaspora considering
return or investment decisions treat the February 7 through August 30 period as extreme risk interval with no
constitutional certainty about governmental authority or legal validity of institutional actions. Support diaspora
voting rights advocacy while recognizing any 2026 election may face legitimacy challenges complicating diaspora
participation and result acceptance. Establish diaspora observer missions for candidate registration verification
and December 22 list publication to provide independent documentation of participation levels and party
engagement.



## WHAT TO WATCH NEXT

Today
Monitor whether Prime Minister Office issues statements addressing electoral calendar clarification or February 7
constitutional deadline before weekend. Track whether CEP responds to media inquiries about registration
numbers or updates official website with August 30 timeline information. Observe whether Bel-Air violence
extends into sixth day or if any Haitian National Police deployment occurs breaking five day non-intervention
pattern. Watch for any major candidate or political party announcements in final days before December 15
registration deadline.
This Week
The December 15 candidate registration deadline Sunday will close the registration window forcing candidates to
commit without further delay. The deadline will reveal through subsequent candidate statements and party
communications which electoral timeline participants believed was operative during registration period. Monitor
whether CARICOM or OAS issue statements addressing February 7 constitutional deadline and governance gap.
Track whether CEP updates official website and public communications to reflect August 30 timeline removing
obsolete February 1 references. Observe whether gang violence spreads beyond Bel-Air to other Port-au-Prince
neighborhoods or if Krache Dife splinter successfully consolidates independent territorial control. Watch for any
government statements on Bel-Air violence or explanations for non-intervention policy.
Strategic
The December 22 final candidate list publication represents the single most important data point for assessing
electoral viability and legitimacy prospects. Robust participation from major parties and prominent opposition
figures would indicate genuine multi-party competition. Minimal participation or absence of major opposition
names would signal coordinated boycott and fundamental legitimacy crisis. The period from now until February 7
represents the final 57 days to establish constitutional mechanisms for governance continuity past CPT mandate
expiration. If no framework emerges by late January expect accelerating political crisis and potential challenges to
transitional government legitimacy including possible refusal by international partners to continue financial support
and operational cooperation. The GSF deployment timeline becomes critical as it may determine whether security
improvements occur under constitutional or extra-constitutional authority affecting mission legitimacy and
operational effectiveness.



## PRIMARY SOURCES

Wikipedia entry on 2026 Haitian general election citing November 14 CEP submission and December 1 CPT
approval
CTN Info report on Haiti setting roadmap for 2026 elections with August 30 first round date
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time

France24 report on Haiti setting August 2026 elections published December 2, 2025
EFE News Agency report on Haiti approving electoral decree for first elections in decade
US Congressional Research Service report dated November 26, 2025 on Haiti electoral calendar
Haiti Info Project Twitter post on CEP electoral calendar October 2025
FCN Haiti coverage of CEP setting February 2026 election date
Haiti24 report on CEP electoral calendar announcement
Haiti Libre official calendar announcement for upcoming elections
ABC News report on dozens killed in Bel-Air as armed men break from gang coalition
Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker Haiti instability entry updated December
Facebook post from Impulsé Web Médias on night of terror in Bel-Air December 10
YouTube documentation of Bel-Air violence casualties
Haiti Libre PDF of electoral calendar 2025-2026
CEP official website
AlterPresse coverage of electoral developments
All Tech is Human global election guide for Haiti 2025
Reuters report on Haiti Prime Minister committing to elections
Le Monde international reporting on gang-squeezed Port-au-Prince neighborhoods
ReliefWeb humanitarian country team messaging on GSF deployment
sources are verified through multiple channels and confidence ratings reflect analytical certainty based
on source triangulation and institutional reliability assessment.
Friday, December 12, 2025, 7:00 PM Haiti Time



---

*Exported from AYITI INTEL Reader on 2026-03-01 05:25 UTC*